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Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany

Oliver Holtemöller, Felix Pohle
Economic Modelling, July 2020
Abstract
Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced a nationwide statutory minimum wage to reduce income inequality by improving the labour income of low-wage employees. However, the employment effects of wage increases depend on time and region specific conditions and, hence, they cannot be known in advance. Because negative employment effects may offset the income gains for low-wage employees, it is important to evaluate minimum-wage policies empirically. We estimate the employment effects of the German minimum-wage introduction using panel regressions on the state-industry-level. We find a robust negative effect of the minimum wage on marginal and a robust positive effect on regular employment. In terms of the number of jobs, our results imply a negative overall effect. Hence, low-wage employees who are still employed are better off at the expense of those who have lost their jobs due to the minimum wage.
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IWH-Tarif-Check: Kräftige Reale Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse für Beschäftigte in der Chemischen Industrie: Neue Gehaltsbestandteile in der Chemischen Industrie erhöhen reale Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse deutlich

Oliver Holtemöller, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Tarif-Check, No. 2, 2019
Abstract
Ende November 2019 wurde ein neuer Tarifvertrag für die Chemische Industrie abgeschlossen. Dementsprechend steigen die tabellenwirksamen Tariflöhne zum Juli 2020 um 1,5% und ein Jahr später nochmals um 1,3%. Hinzu kommen Einmalzahlungen in Höhe von 4,0% – 6,0% eines Monatsentgelts für die Zeit bis zur ersten Tariferhöhung im Juli 2020. Zusätzlich wurde erstmalig ein tarifliches Zukunftskonto im Gegenwert von zwei Tagen im Jahr 2020, drei Tagen im Jahr 2021 und danach jeweils fünf Tagen je Jahr vereinbart, die als Freizeit genommen, angespart oder ausgezahlt werden können. Dies entspricht einem Plus von 1,8 %. Hinzu kommt eine tarifliche Pflegezusatzversicherung und die Anhebung des Weihnachtsgeldes. Durch diese Zusatzvereinbarungen werden die eher niedrigen tabellenwirksamen Tariflohnsteigerungen erheblich aufgewertet. Insgesamt umfasst der Tariflohnabschluss ein Plus von mehr als 6% für eine Laufzeit von bis zu 29 Monaten.
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The Regional Effects of a Place-based Policy – Causal Evidence from Germany

Matthias Brachert, Eva Dettmann, Mirko Titze
Regional Science and Urban Economics, November 2019
Abstract
The German government provides discretionary investment grants to structurally weak regions in order to reduce regional inequality. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits an exogenous discrete jump in the probability of regional actors to receive investment grants to identify the causal effects of the policy. We find positive effects of the programme on district-level gross value-added and productivity growth, but no effects on employment and gross wage growth.
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Wage Delegation in the Field

Sabrina Jeworrek, Vanessa Mertins
Journal of Economics and Management Strategy, No. 4, 2019
Abstract
By conducting a natural field experiment, we analyze the managerial policy of delegating the wage choice to employees. We find that this policy enhances performance significantly, which is remarkable since allocated wage premiums of the same size have no effect at all. Observed self‐imposed wage restraints and absence of negative peer effects speak in favor of wage delegation, although the chosen wage premium levels severely dampen its net value. Additional experimental and survey data provide important insights into employees' underlying motivations.
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EFN Report Winter 2018/19: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2019 and 2020

EFN Reports, No. 1, 2019
Abstract
• The cyclical upswing of the world economy comes to an end, since expansionary policies in the US are expected to peter out in 2019, and the protectionist course of the US government clouds the perspectives for world trade. • However, if a major trade conflict can be avoided, chances are good that world production growth will be close to the long-run average of a bit more than 3%, with trade expanding at a similar pace. • Slowing exports, in particular to China, can partly explain the setback, while domestic conditions still appear favourable: firms continued hiring, albeit by less than before, tight labour markets in many member countries have caused wages to rise more quickly, and house prices continue to increase markedly. • Since a trend to higher inflationary dynamics is still not detectable, the ECB is likely to either keep key interest rates unchanged in 2019 or raise them very carefully at the end of the year. • All in all, we expect the euro area growth rate to come down from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020, and inflation to slightly slow down from 1.8% in 2018 to 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020.
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IWH-Verdienst-Check: Kräftige Lohnzuwächse und Entlastungen bei Lohnabzügen bringen den Arbeitnehmern mehr Netto im Jahr 2019

Oliver Holtemöller, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Tarif-Check, No. 3, 2018
Abstract
Die Löhne und Gehälter der Arbeitnehmer dürften in Deutschland im nächsten Jahr kräftig zulegen. So sind in vielen Branchen wie beispielsweise dem Bauhauptgewerbe, der Metall- und Elektroindustrie oder im Öffentlichen Dienst von Bund und Kommunen recht hohe Tariflohnerhöhungen vorgesehen. Die gute Arbeitsmarktlage dürfte auch die nicht tarifgebundenen Löhne weiter steigen lassen. Zudem wird der Mindestlohn im Januar 2019 um knapp 4% angehoben. Insgesamt ist im nächsten Jahr von einem Anstieg der Bruttolöhne und -gehälter je Arbeitnehmer von etwas mehr als 3% auszugehen.
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EFN Report Summer 2018: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2018 and 2019

EFN Reports, No. 3, 2018
Abstract
• In summer 2018 the cyclical upswing of the world economy is not over, but it appears to be fragmenting. While economic activity in the European Union has lost steam, the upswing in the US has gained pace, and growth in China appears to be robust. • Markets for commodities as well as for capital are at present strongly affected by political movements: oil prices are more than 50% higher than one year ago, as the US exit from the Iran nuclear deal puts the long run oil supply from Iran at risk, and the strongly expansionary US tax reform explains the rise in US long run interest rates. . • Uncertainties about the future international trade system cause firms to slow down or even reverse the globalization of value chains. As an early consequence, world trade in the second half of 2018 and in 2019 will expand at much slower rates than during 2017. • In the euro area growth slowed in the first quarter 2018, due to weaker investment activity in France and Italy and, more importantly, a fall in exports in all larger euro area economies except Spain. However, the drivers of the upswing such as low interest rates for credit and expanding real incomes will still be supportive in the near future, and fiscal policies will be slighly more expansionary. But a slowdown in world trade will dent export growth as well as corporate profits. All in all, we expect GDP growth in the euro area to go down from 2.4% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018 and to 1.7% in 2019 – a forecast that will only be realized if damages to the international trade system are limited and if the European sovereign debt crisis does not come back. • While wage inflation has been slowly increasing during the past quarters to about 2%, a clear upwards trend of core consumer price inflation is still not detectable. The recent jump of the headline rate to 1.9% is due to higher oil prices. Our forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are close, although still below, 2%.
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IWH-Tarif-Check: Im Baugewerbe wird künftig auch real deutlich mehr gezahlt: Starker Anstieg der Tariflöhne, ostdeutsche Beschäftigte holen aber nicht weiter auf

Oliver Holtemöller, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Tarif-Check, No. 2, 2018
Abstract
Nach monatelangen Tarifverhandlungen gibt es für die rund 800 000 Beschäftigten im Bauhauptgewerbe einen Schlichterspruch – und die bislang höchste Tariflohnvereinbarung Deutschlands in diesem Jahr: Die Beschäftigten im Tarifgebiet West bekommen zum 1. Mai 2018 5,7% mehr Lohn und insgesamt drei Einmalzahlungen: im November diesen Jahres 250 Euro, im Juni 2019 600 Euro und im November 2019 noch einmal 250 Euro. Im Tarifgebiet Ost steigen die Tariflöhne ab Mai 2018 sogar um 6,6% und im Juni 2019 dann um 0,8%. Dazu kommt eine Einmalzahlung im November 2019 in Höhe von 250 Euro je Beschäftigten. Doch wie viel vom Plus bleibt den Bauarbeitenden wirklich? Das IWH hat die realen Einkommenszuwächse berechnet.
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EFN Report Spring 2018: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2018 and 2019

EFN Reports, No. 2, 2018
Abstract
• The world economy is booming. The global upswing is investment-driven, and since investment goods usually have a large import content, it is no surprise that world trade has been buoyant during winter. The very expansionary US fiscal policy (tax reform and lifting of spending caps) could give an additional shortterm stimulus for the world economy. • However, we forecast world trade to slow down during 2018. The US administration’s announcement of high tariffs on steel and aluminium comes close to triggering a spiral into a broader trade conflict. Moreover, the globalization of value chains has been slowing down since the financial crisis due to the industrial upgrading in China and in other emerging economies that has declined processing trade. In addition, some types of manufacturing jobs have returned to source countries (reshoring) in response to technology innovation and lower labour costs differentials. • The euro area is in the middle of a broad based cyclical upswing. Higher exports and improved expectations have induced firms to invest more into equipment, as capacity utilization has been above average for some time now and is still increasing, and financing costs are very low. However, recent soft indicators, but also industrial production have been surprisingly downbeat, and there was some turbulence in financial markets, which suggests some caution. • The ECB will probably stop its asset purchase program at the end of 2018, but only later in 2019 start raising interest rates. Fiscal policy in the euro area is slightly expansionary this year, and a notable fiscal stimulus in France and in Germany is to be expected for 2019. • Overall, we forecast euro area GDP to expand by 2.2% in 2018 and by 1.6% in 2019. Accelerating wage dynamics will, together with higher price setting powers of firms and the recent increase in oil prices, cause consumer price inflation rising to nearly to 2% in 2019. Uncertainty, is however substantial, as a slight slowdown cannot be ruled out, which would also impact inflation dynamics.
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IWH-Tarif-Check: Reale Netto-Lohnzuwächse bei den Beschäftigten von Bund und Kommunen in den nächsten Jahren

Oliver Holtemöller, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Tarif-Check, No. 1, 2018
Abstract
Der neue Tariflohnabschluss verheißt Positives für die 2,3 Millionen Beschäftigten des öffentlichen Dienstes von Bund und Kommunen: Rückwirkend zum 01.03.2018 erhalten sie 3,2%, ab dem 01.04.2019 weitere 3,1% und zum 01.03.2020 nochmals 1,1% mehr Lohn. Die Beschäftigten bis zur Entgeltgruppe 6 erhalten zudem eine Einmalzahlung von 250 Euro.
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