IWH-DPE Call for Applications
IWH-DPE Call for Applications About the IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics (IWH-DPE) is a rigorous structured four-year PhD programme with…
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Past Events
Past Events 14. CompNet Annual Conference (Vilnius, 25-26 September 2025) The 14th CompNet Annual Conference, co-hosted with the Bank of Lithuania, took place on 25–26 September…
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6th CompNet Annual Conference
Innovation, firm size, productivity and imbalances in the age of de-globalization 6 th CompNet Annual Conference, June 29-30, 2017, European Commission, Brussels, Belgium As the…
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12 CompNet Annual Conference
12th CompNet Annual Conference The 12th CompNet Annual Conference , centered around the theme "Firm’s Performance in challenging times: Input costs, Technology, Productivity, and…
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ProdTalks
CompNet ProdTalks CompNet ProdTalks is a monthly recurring 1.5 hour virtual event, two selected papers will be presented including presentation, discussion and Q&A. The top ic…
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10th CompNet Annual Conference
10th CompNet Annual Conference This year CompNet celebrates its 10th Annual Conference, together with Banque de France as co-host, which took place in Paris. The topic of the…
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Academic conference on the 30th anniversary of the single market
Academic conference on the 30th anniversary of the single market 1st session Chair: Josefina Monteagudo (European Commission) The “completeness” of the EU single market in…
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1st CompNet Data User Conference
1st CompNet Data User Conference Since it is well established among researchers of productivity and competitiveness that macro data cannot answer all questions emerging in today's…
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Charts
Info Graphs Sometimes pictures say more than a thousand words. Therefore, we selected a few graphs to present our main topics visually. If you should have any questions or would…
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Worker Beliefs about Outside Options
Simon Jäger, Christopher Roth, Nina Roussille, Benjamin Schoefer
Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Vol. 139 (3),
2024
Abstract
Standard labor market models assume that workers hold accurate beliefs about the external wage distribution, and hence their outside options with other employers. We test this assumption by comparing German workers’ beliefs about outside options with objective benchmarks. First, we find that workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage: workers that would experience a 10% wage change if switching to their outside option only expect a 1% change. Second, workers in low-paying firms underestimate wages elsewhere. Third, in response to information about the wages of similar workers, respondents correct their beliefs about their outside options and change their job search and wage negotiation intentions. Finally, we analyze the consequences of anchoring in a simple equilibrium model. In the model, anchored beliefs keep overly pessimistic workers stuck in low-wage jobs, which gives rise to monopsony power and labor market segmentation.
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