Media Response
Media Response March 2025 IWH: Firmenpleiten steigen auf höchsten Wert seit 2015 in: Handelsblatt.com, 18.03.2025 IWH: Die Alten sind unser wahrer SCHATZ in: Die Welt, 17.03.2025…
See page
Alumni
IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
See page
Homepage
A turning point for the German economy? The international political environment has fundamentally changed with looming trade wars and a deteriorating security situation in Europe.…
See page
Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
See page
Research Data Centre
IWH Research Data Centre (IWH-FDZ) The IWH Research Data Centre offers external researchers access to microdata and micro-aggregated data sets that enable in-depth analyses on a…
See page
CompNet Database
The CompNet Competitiveness Database The Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) is a forum for high level research and policy analysis in the areas of competitiveness and…
See page
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) The Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) of the IWH was founded in 2014. It is a platform that bundles and…
See page
Conditional Macroeconomic Survey Forecasts: Revisions and Errors
Alexander Glas, Katja Heinisch
Journal of International Money and Finance,
November
2023
Abstract
Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters and ECB/Eurosystem staff projections, we analyze the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and unemployment are related to beliefs about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. While oil price and exchange rate predictions are updated more frequently than macroeconomic forecasts, the opposite is true for interest rate and wage growth expectations. Beliefs about future inflation are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are related to predictions of output growth and unemployment. Exchange rate predictions also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than the other variables. With regard to forecast errors, wage growth and GDP growth closely comove, but only during the period when interest rates are at the effective zero lower bound.
Read article
Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…
See page
Charts
Info Graphs Sometimes pictures say more than a thousand words. Therefore, we selected a few graphs to present our main topics visually. If you should have any questions or would…
See page
