Climate Change Economics in Vietnam: Redefining Economic Impact
Christian Otto, Christoph Schult, Thomas Vogt
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2025
Abstract
Vietnam, a lower-middle-income economy, faces severe climate risks from heat waves, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclones, which are expected to intensify under ongoing global warming. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we analyze economic transition dynamics from 2015 to 2100, incorporating heat-induced labor productivity losses, agricultural land loss, and cyclone-related property damage. We compare a Paris-compatible scenario limiting warming to below 2 °C with a high-emission scenario reaching 4–5 °C. While output and investment impacts remain highly uncertain and statistically indistinguishable across scenarios until 2100, consumption losses are significantly larger under high emissions, mainly driven by heat-related productivity declines, with cyclones contributing most to uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple impact channels beyond output damages in climate-development research.
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Media Response January 2026 IWH: Vom Knochenstaub zur KI: Diese Firma trotzt seit 175 Jahren jeder Krise in: Schwäbische Zeitung Ravensburg, 21.01.2026 IWH: Für die enorme…
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Past Events 14. CompNet Annual Conference (Vilnius, 25-26 September 2025) The 14th CompNet Annual Conference, co-hosted with the Bank of Lithuania, took place on 25–26 September…
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CompNet ProdTalks CompNet ProdTalks is a monthly recurring 1.5 hour virtual event, two selected papers will be presented including presentation, discussion and Q&A. The top ic…
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10th CompNet Annual Conference This year CompNet celebrates its 10th Annual Conference, together with Banque de France as co-host, which took place in Paris. The topic of the…
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11th Annual Conference in Luxembourg
11th Annual Conference in Luxembourg 14.-15. September 2022 in Luxembourg This year CompNet celebrated its 11th Annual Conference, together with EIB and ENRI as co-hosts, which…
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Macro Data Download On this page, you will find long time series of macroeconomic data provided by IWH for download. Please note that most files come with labels and legends in…
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Physical Climate Change and the Sovereign Risk of Emerging Economies
Hannes Böhm
Journal of Economic Structures,
2022
Abstract
I show that rising temperatures can detrimentally affect the sovereign creditworthiness of emerging economies. To this end, I collect long-term monthly temperature data of 54 emerging markets. I calculate a country’s temperature deviation from its historical average, which approximates present-day climate change trends. Running regressions from 1994m1 to 2018m12, I find that higher temperature anomalies lower sovereign bond performances (i.e., increase sovereign risk) significantly for countries that are warmer on average and have lower seasonality. The estimated magnitudes suggest that affected countries likely face significant increases in their sovereign borrowing costs if temperatures continue to rise due to climate change. However, results indicate that stronger institutions can make a country more resilient towards temperature shocks, which holds independent of a country’s climate.
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