Kehrt das Inflationsgespenst zurück? – ein Kommentar
Reint E. Gropp
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2025
Abstract
Zur Erinnerung: Nach Jahren von Inflationsraten nahe null war die Inflationsrate in Deutschland 2022 nach der Corona-Pandemie und dem Überfall Russlands auf die Ukraine auf knapp 7% gestiegen, ähnlich hoch wie zur Energiekrise 1973/74. Die Gründe dafür sind bekannt: expansive Geld- und Finanzpolitik sowie steigende Energiepreise und Nachholeffekte beim Konsum, verbunden mit Lieferkettenproblemen gerade im Handel mit China. Seitdem haben Zentralbanken wie die EZB eine weiche Landung hingelegt. Ohne große Verluste beim Wachstum (zumindest global gesehen) wurde die Inflationsrate auf 1,6% im September 2024 gedrückt. Ein großer Erfolg?
Read article
Credit Card Entrepreneurs
Ufuk Akcigit, Raman Chhina, Seyit Cilasun, Javier Miranda, Nicolas Serrano-Velarde
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2025
Abstract
Utilizing near real-time QuickBooks data from over 1.6 million small businesses and a targeted survey, this paper highlights the critical role credit card financing plays for small business activity. We examine a two year period beginning in January of 2021. A turbulent period during which, credit card usage by small U.S. businesses nearly doubled, interest payments rose by 60%, and delinquencies reached 2.8%. We find, first, monthly credit card payments were up to three times higher than loan payments during this time. Second, we use targeted surveys of these small businesses to establish credit cards as a key financing source in response to firm-level shocks, such as uncertain cash flows and overdue invoices. Third, we establish the importance of credit cards as an important financial transmission mechanism. Following the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in early 2022, banks cut credit card supply, leading to a 15.75% drop in balances and a 10% decline in revenue growth, as well as a 1.5% decrease in employment growth among U.S. small businesses. These higher rates also rendered interest payments unsustainable for many, contributing to half of the observed increase in delinquencies. Lastly, a simple heterogeneous firm model with a cash-in-hand constraint illustrates the significant macroeconomic impact of credit card financing on small business activity.
Read article
Media Response
Media Response February 2026 Oliver Holtemöller: Versprochene Entlastung für die Firmen in: Agrarzeitung, 06.02.2026 IWH: Die Gewinner der Spiele in: nd DER TAG, 06.02.2026 Oliver…
See page
Funding Institutions
Funding Institutions At present, CompNet is funded by a group of prominent institutions, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European…
See page
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) The Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (IWH-CEP) of the IWH was founded in 2014. It is a platform that bundles and…
See page
Research Data Centre
Research Data Centre (IWH-RDC) Direct link to our Data Offer The IWH Research Data Centre offers external researchers access to microdata and micro-aggregated data sets that…
See page
IWH-DPE in a Nutshell
IWH-DPE in a Nutshell The IWH Doctoral Programme in Economics (IWH-DPE) is the unit that organises the education of doctoral students at the IWH in close cooperation with partner…
See page
Archive
Media Response Archive 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 December 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
See page
Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Each IWH research group is assigned to a topic-oriented research cluster. The clusters are not separate organisational units, but rather bundle the…
See page
Alumni
IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
See page
