12.03.2026 • 8/2026
Oil price shock threatens recovery in Germany
Globally rising energy prices in the wake of the new Gulf War are clouding the outlook for the German economy. Nevertheless, increased public expenditure is expected to support economic activity both this year and next. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), output is projected to grow by 0.7% in 2026 and by 1.0% in 2027. We expect similar rates of expansion for East Germany. In December, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 1.0% for both 2026 and 2027.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
14.01.2026 • 2/2026
Compliance with the EU fiscal rules requires extensive consolidation – Medium-term projection of macroeconomic developments and public finances in Germany
Germany faces considerable structural burdens from both macroeconomic and fiscal perspectives, as potential growth is likely to be significantly lower than in past decades. A projection by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) on macroeconomic developments up to the year 2040 shows that, under unchanged fiscal policies, public debt can be expected to continue rising. The federal government's fiscal-structural plan assumes compliance with EU requirements, but this is only achievable under the assumption of high global spending cuts that have not yet been specified in detail.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
Research Articles
Research Articles Explore cutting-edge research based on CompNet’s micro-aggregated firm-level data and related analytical tools. These articles cover empirical and theoretical…
See page
Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association
EREI-Update: Rents remain high in Spanish cities Pressure in the Spanish rental market made Prime Minister Sánchez call for early elections. The latest European Real Estate Index…
See page
Within-Country Inequality and the Shaping of a Just Global Climate Policy
Marie Young-Brun, Francis Dennig, Frank Errickson, Simon Feindt, Aurélie Méjean, Stéphane Zuber
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS),
Vol. 122 (39),
2025
Abstract
Climate policy design must balance emissions mitigation with concerns for fairness, particularly as climate change disproportionately affects the poorest households within and across countries. Integrated Assessment Models used for global climate policy evaluation have so far typically not considered inequality effects within countries. To fill this gap, we develop a global Integrated Assessment Model representing national economies and subnational income, mitigation cost, and climate damage distribution and assess a range of climate policy schemes with varying levels of effort sharing across countries and households. The schemes are consistent with limiting temperature increases to 2 °C and account for the possibility to use carbon tax revenues to address distributional effects within and between countries. We find that carbon taxation with redistribution improves global welfare and reduces inequality, with the most substantial gains achieved under uniform taxation paired with global per capita transfers. A Loss and Damage mechanism offers significant welfare improvements in vulnerable countries while requiring only a modest share of global carbon revenues in the medium term. The poorest households within all countries may benefit from the transfer scheme, in particular when some redistribution is made at the country level. Our findings underscore the potential for climate policy to advance both environmental and social goals, provided revenue recycling mechanisms are effectively implemented. In particular, they demonstrate the feasibility of a welfare improving global climate policy involving limited international redistribution.
Read article
The Limits of Local Laws in Global Supply Chains: Extending Governance or Cutting Ties?
Michael Koetter, Melina Ludolph, Hendrik Keilbach, Fabian Woebbeking
Abstract
We exploit an information shock related to the German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act and use detailed customs data to analyze how smaller, non-listed firms respond when expecting accountability for externalities beyond their organizational boundaries. Product-level regressions reveal a substantial reduction in imports from high ESG-risk production sectors. Adjustments occur mainly at the extensive margin, indicating that firms cut ties with high-risk suppliers. The product-level results translate into meaningful changes in overall international procurement for firms with Big Four auditors. Our findings suggest potential limits to mandates requiring firms to integrate broad sustainability considerations into operational decisions.
Read article
Projects
Our Projects 04.2025 ‐ 03.2030 The Role of Multinational Enterprises in the Global Financial Cycle (Programme for Women Professors) Leibniz-Gemeinschaft Professorin Xiang Li,…
See page
Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Each IWH research group is assigned to a topic-oriented research cluster. The clusters are not separate organisational units, but rather bundle the…
See page
Speed Projects
Speed Projects On this page, you will find the IWH EXplore Speed Projects in chronologically descending order. 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2021 SPEED 2021/01…
See page
Alumni
Alumni IWH provides guidance and support in job placement after graduation, including letters of recommendation and career advice. Graduates have found placements in academia…
See page