Regulating Zombie Mortgages
Jonathan Lee, Duc Duy Nguyen, Huyen Nguyen
Review of Finance,
forthcoming
Abstract
Using the adoption of Zombie Property Laws (ZL) across several US states, we show that requiring lenders to maintain properties in the foreclosure process affects mortgage lending decisions and standards. Difference-in-differences estimations using a state border design show that ZL incentivizes lenders to screen mortgage applications more carefully: they deny more applications and impose higher interest rates on originated loans, especially risky loans. In turn, these loans exhibit higher ex post performance. ZL also affects lender behavior after borrowers become distressed, causing them to strategically keep delinquent mortgages alive. Our findings inform the debate on policy responses to foreclosure crises.
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Mixing QE and Interest Rate Policies at the Effective Lower Bound: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area
Christian Bittner, Alexander Rodnyansky, Farzad Saidi, Yannick Timmer
Review of Finance,
forthcoming
Abstract
We study the interaction of expansionary rate-based monetary policy and quantitative easing, despite their concurrent implementation, by exploiting heterogeneous banks and the introduction of negative monetary-policy rates in a fragmented euro area. Quantitative easing increases credit supply less, translating into weaker employment growth, when banks’ funding costs do not decrease. Using administrative data from Germany, we uncover that among banks selling their securities, central-bank reserves remain disproportionately with high-deposit banks that are constrained due to sticky customer deposits at the zero lower bound. Affected German banks lend relatively less to firms while increasing their interbank exposure in the euro area.
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Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?
Oliver Holtemöller, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Boreum Kwak
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
forthcoming
Abstract
Exploiting the heteroskedasticity of the changes in short-term and long-term interest rates and exchange rates around the FOMC announcement, we identify three structural monetary policy shocks. We eliminate the predictable part of the shocks and study their effects on financial variables and macro variables. The first shock resembles a conventional monetary policy shock, and the second resembles an unconventional monetary shock. The third shock leads to an increase in interest rates, stock prices, industrial production, consumer prices, and commodity prices. At the same time, the excess bond premium and uncertainty decrease, and the U.S. dollar depreciates. Therefore, this third shock combines all the characteristics of a central bank information shock.
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Sticky Prices or Sticky Wages? An Equivalence Result
Florin Bilbiie, Mathias Trabandt
Review of Economics and Statistics,
forthcoming
Abstract
We show an equivalence result in the representative-agent New-Keynesian model after demand, wage-markup and correlated price-markup and TFP shocks: assuming sticky prices and flexible wages yields identical allocations for GDP, consumption, labor, inflation and interest rates to the opposite case—flexible prices and sticky wages. This equivalence arises with identical price and wage Phillips-curve slopes and generalizes to any slopes' pair whose sum and product are identical. Equilibrium profits and wages are, however, substantially different; equivalence breaks when these factor-distributional implications matter for aggregate allocations, e.g. in New-Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents, endogenous firm entry, and non-constant returns to scale.
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Konjunktur aktuell: Zwischen Energiekrise und KI-Boom
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 2,
2026
Abstract
Die deutsche Wirtschaft steht infolge der Energiekrise und des anhaltenden Golfkonflikts vor einer unsicheren Erholung. Steigende Kosten und eine schwächere Beschäftigungsentwicklung belasten die Konjunktur, während die Finanzpolitik stützend wirkt. Unter der Annahme stabiler Energiepreise dürfte die Produktion in diesem und im kommenden Jahr um jeweils 0,9% zunehmen; ähnliche Expansionsraten sind auch für Ostdeutschland zu erwarten.
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Can Nonprofits Save Lives Under Financial Stress? Evidence from the Hospital Industry
Janet Gao, Tim Liu, Sara Malik, Merih Sevilir
SSRN Working Paper,
No. 4946064,
2025
Abstract
We compare the effects of external financing shocks on patient mortality at nonprofit and for-profit hospitals. Using confidential patient-level data, we find that patient mortality increases to a lesser extent at nonprofit hospitals than at for-profit ones facing exogenous, negative shocks to debt capacity. Such an effect is not driven by patient characteristics or their choices of hospitals. It is concentrated among patients without private insurance and patients with higher-risk diagnoses. Potential economic mechanisms include nonprofit hospitals' having deeper cash reserves and greater ability to maintain spending on medical staff and equipment, even at the expense of lower profitability. Overall, our evidence suggests that nonprofit organizations can better serve social interests during financially challenging times.
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04.09.2025 • 26/2025
Recovery on shaky ground – tariffs dampen growth, but a change in fiscal policy is on the way
In late summer 2025, it is still unclear whether the German economy is on the road to recovery, as it has to cope with the dampening effect of higher US tariffs in the second half of the year. It is not until 2026 that fiscal policy stimulus measures, combined with low key interest rates, will probably lead to an economic upturn. According to the autumn forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), production is then expected to increase by 0.8%, following 0.2% in 2025. Similar rates of expansion are also expected for East Germany. In June, the IWH economists were forecasting growth of 1.1% for 2026 and 0.4% for the current year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Aggregate Dynamics with Sectoral Price Stickiness Heterogeneity and Aggregate Real Shocks
Alessandro Flamini, Iftekhar Hasan
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Vol. 57 (5),
2025
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between heterogeneity in sectoral price stickiness and the response of the economy to aggregate real shocks. We show that sectoral heterogeneity reduces inflation persistence for a constant average duration of price spells, and that inflation persistence can fall despite duration increases associated with increases in heterogeneity. We also find that sectoral heterogeneity reduces the persistence and volatility of interest rate and output gap for a constant price spells duration, while the qualitative impact on inflation volatility tends to be positive. A relevant policy implication is that neglecting price stickiness heterogeneity can impair the economic dynamics assessment.
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Carbon Transition Risk and Corporate Loan Securitization
Isabella Müller, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Vol. 63 (July),
2025
Abstract
We examine how banks manage carbon transition risk by selling loans given to polluting borrowers to less regulated shadow banks in securitization markets. Exploiting the election of Donald Trump as an exogenous shock that reduces carbon transition risk, we find that banks engage in regulatory arbitrage and use brown loan securitization to manage their exposure to carbon transition risk. Banks are more likely to securitize brown loans when carbon transition risk is high but keep these loans on their balance sheets when the risk is reduced. In addition, securitization enables banks to offer lower interest rates to polluting borrowers but does not affect the supply of green loans. Our findings are more pronounced among banks with low levels of capitalization, domestic banks, and banks that do not display green lending preferences. We discuss how securitization can weaken the effectiveness of bank climate policies.
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