Housing Yields
Stefano Colonnello, Roberto Marfè, Qizhou Xiong
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
forthcoming
Abstract
We build a granular dataset of residential property yields using rental and sale listings from a major German real estate platform. With more than 1.5 million property-level rent-to-price ratios, we document a novel heterogeneity puzzle. About two-fifths of yield dispersion remains unexplained after controlling for extensive observable property characteristics and postal code-level time-varying factors using fixed effects. When we absorb finer neighborhood amenities through richer fixed effects, the unexplained share remains close to one-third. This evidence points to the importance of investors’ beliefs and preferences—rather than several alternative explanations we test—as sources of heterogeneity in risk premia.
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10.09.2026 • 27/2026
EREI-Update: Rents in Europe’s cities are 23% higher on average than in rural areas
The European Commission currently prepares the Affordable Housing Act to tackle widespread concerns about tight housing markets, for example voiced by the German Tenants' Federation (DMB) which blames rising rental cost as one main driver of a social crisis in Germany. The latest European Real Estate Index (EREI) by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) shows that rental prices in Germany rose indeed three times compared to the European average in August. Moreover, the rental premium in metropolitan areas vis-à-vis the average in non-metropolitan areas in eleven EU member states amounts to 23%.
Michael Koetter
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European Real Estate Index (EREI) 2026: A Near-real-time European Real Estate Index EREI: Monthly Listing Prices and Rents for Residential Real Estate
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth, Fabian Woebbeking
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 2,
2026
Abstract
Real estate is a capstone connection between various economic agents and markets. It is the main store of household wealth, serves as collateral for mortgage loans in the banking system, aids the transmission of monetary policy, and can propagate financial crises when overvalued. Yet comparable house-price data across the European Union (EU) and the euro area is unavailable, which hinders the design and evaluation of common monetary and economic policy that operates across heterogeneous housing markets. We derive monthly subnational European Real Estate Indicators (EREI) from online residential property advertisements in 16 European countries. The release covers April 2024 to June 2026 and contains 48,168 region-month-segment observations for 1,154 NUTS 3 regions, aggregating more than 43 million listing observations across the monthly sale and rental cross-sections. Each region-month segment reports the number of advertisements and summary statistics for asking prices per square meter and listing durations. The release also includes sale-segment indices for Europe, the euro area, and individual countries. Thirteen covered countries are EU members, which represented 85% of EU-27 gross domestic product in 2024. EREI data support research on a wide range of socio-economic phenomena associated with real estate dynamics, such as the evaluation of monetary policy or macroprudential policy effects on financial stability.
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Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association
Recovery under structural stress – fiscal policy on slippery ground The recovery of the German economy, although stronger than expected in spring, remains modest. In their joint…
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Brown Bag Seminar
Brown Bag Seminar Financial Markets Department The seminar series "Brown Bag Seminar" was offered on a regular basis by members of the Financial Markets department and their…
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30.11.2022 • 28/2022
Stricter rules for banks can relieve real estate markets
Exuberant price levels in the German real estate market could further exacerbate an economic crisis. Fiscal instruments exert too little influence to contain this danger, shows a study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
Michael Koetter
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European Real Estate Prices
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
IWH Technical Reports,
No. 3,
2022
Abstract
Real estate markets are pivotal to financial stability given their dual role as the underlying asset of crucial financial products in financial systems, such as mortgage loans and asset-backed securities, and the primary source of household wealth alike. As such, they also play traditionally a crucial role for the transmission of monetary policy. Imbalances and sudden corrections in real estate markets have been the root cause of many financial crises over the last decades. But whereas some national, often survey-based indicators of real estate prices are provided by central banks and statistical offices, a comprehensive collection of purchase prices, rents, and proxies for the liquidity of European real estate markets is lacking. The IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) seeks to fill this void for residential property. This technical report describes the gathering and processing of sale and rental prices for properties in 18 European countries. We provide the general scrapeing step in the section before describing country-specific details for each country in separated sub-sections.
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European Real Estate Markets During the Pandemic: Is COVID-19 also a Case for House Price Concerns?
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
IWH Policy Notes,
No. 3,
2022
Abstract
We use a new database on European real estate purchase and rental prices – the IWH European Real Estate Index – to document the relationship between staggered COVID-19 dynamics and real estate prices in 14 EU countries between January 2020 and December 2021. For most countries, we find no statistically significant response of monthly purchase and rental prices due to an increase of regional COVID-19 cases. For the UK we find that more COVID-19 cases depressed both purchase and rental prices significantly, but the economic magnitude of effects was mild during this sample period. In contrast, rents in Italy increased in response to hiking COVID-19 cases, illustrating the importance to consider heterogeneous crisis patterns across the EU when designing policies. Overall, COVID-19 dynamics did not affect real estate values significantly during the pandemic, thereby mitigating potential financial stability concerns via a mortgage lending channel at the time.
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Explaining Regional Disparities in Housing Prices Across German Districts
Lars Brausewetter, Stephan L. Thomsen, Johannes Trunzer
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2022
Abstract
Over the last decade, German housing prices have increased unprecedentedly. Drawing on quality-adjusted housing price data at the district level, we document large and increasing regional disparities: Growth rates were higher in 1) the largest seven cities, 2) districts located in the south, and 3) districts with higher initial price levels. Indications of price bubbles are concentrated in the largest cities and in the purchasing market. Prices seem to be driven by the demand side: Increasing population density, higher shares of academically educated employees and increasing purchasing power explain our findings, while supply remained relatively constrained in the short term.
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To Rent or not to Rent: A Household Finance Perspective on Berlin's Short-term Rental Regulation
Antonios Mavropoulos
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 1,
2021
Abstract
With the increasing concerns that accompany the rising trends of house sharing economies, regulators impose new laws to counteract housing supply scarcity. In this paper, I investigate whether the ban on short-term entire house listings activated in Berlin in May 2016 had any adverse effects from a household finance perspective. More specifically, I derive short-term rental income and counter-factually compare it with long-term rental income to find that the ban, by decreasing the supply of short-term housing, accelerated short-term rental income but did not have any direct effect on long-term rental income. Commercial home-owners therefore would find renting on the short-term market to be financially advantageous.
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