The Micro-aggregated Phillips Curve
Daniele Aglio, Eric Bartelsman
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2026
Abstract
This paper provides theory and evidence on micro-level pricing behavior needed to model an aggregate New Keynesian Phillips Curve. We start with individual firms that are heterogeneous in their production technology and in the demand curves they face. We estimate the parameters of supply and demand curves by utilizing prices and quantities of outputs and factor inputs of firms along with exogenous downstream demand instruments from global input-output and trade data. The research addresses model heterogeneity using a clustering method to classify firms according to their production technology and observed price pass-through. The results show that more productive firms exhibit a lower price response to changes in demand. We find that the aggregate price response to demand shocks will be smaller when more productive firms absorb a larger portion of demand shocks, which generally is the case. At the same time, our results imply that idiosyncratic shifts in demand to clusters of firms with more rapidly rising marginal cost curves, or cost shocks to clusters of firms with high pass-through, will result in a higher aggregate price response. Finally, this paper provides a framework to incorporate heterogeneous pricing behavior into an estimate of the slope of the aggregate Phillips Curve.
Read article
Transition Dynamics in Heterogeneous-agent Models and the Distributional Consequences of Taxation
Alexandra Gutsch, Christoph Schult
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 7,
2026
Abstract
We study how idiosyncratic income risk shapes the aggregate and distributional effects of labor and capital income taxation in dynamic general equilibrium models. To this end, we compare a heterogeneous-agent (HA) model with uninsurable idiosyncratic labor productivity risk and a ten-representative-agent (TE) model in which households correspond to fixed wealth deciles without such risk. At the aggregate level, both models generate qualitatively similar responses; however, the HA model exhibits a smaller recessionary impact driven by precautionary savings behavior, which stabilizes investment. At the distributional level, the models differ sharply. In the HA framework, tax shocks trigger endogenous mobility across wealth deciles. These inter-decile transition dynamics tend to benefit lower deciles. In contrast, the TA model features fixed household positions. Our findings highlight that while simpler multi-representative-agent models can approximate aggregate dynamics well, they may miss important distributional adjustment channels. The relevance of these mechanisms ultimately depends on the empirical importance of mobility across the wealth distribution, pointing to a key trade-off between model simplicity and accuracy.
Read article
Patents, Firm Rents, and Worker Compensation: Causal Evidence from Quasi-random Patent Allocation
Afroza Alam, André Diegmann
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 6,
2026
Abstract
This paper provides new causal evidence on how patent allowances affect firms and their employees based on quasi-random assignment of patent applications to examiners. Exploiting employer-employee records with newly linked German firm data and web-scraped patent documents, we show that patent-induced shocks reduce firm exit, improve productivity, and increase wages, with rent-sharing elasticities between 0.10 and 0.21. Wage gains are broadly observed across occupational tasks, with high heterogeneity: managers benefit disproportionately in publicly traded firms, whereas broader wage increases accrue to workers in non-traded firms. Our findings highlight the role of institutional features and firm organization in shaping how rents are shared.
Read article
01.04.2026 • 10/2026
Economic growth in East Germany slightly higher than in the West – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2026 and of new data for the East German economy
In 2025, the East German economy expanded by 0.4%, somewhat more than Germany as a whole (0.2%). For 2026, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects growth of 0.7% for East Germany (Germany: 0.6%). The unemployment rate is likely to amount to 7.9% in the current year, after 7.8% in 2025.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
01.04.2026 • 9/2026
Energy price shock dampens recovery – inflation rises
Although the leading economic research institutes consider the German economy to be in a recovery phase following a downturn lasting several years, they nevertheless expect only a moderate increase in gross domestic product of 0.6% for 2026 and 0.9% for 2027. “The energy price shock triggered by the Iran war is hitting the recovery hard, but at the same time expansionary fiscal policy is bolstering the domestic economy and preventing a stronger slide,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at the ifo Institute. The institutes estimate that the inflation rate will rise to an average of 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
Social Capital and Retail Investor Behavior: Evidence From the Corporate Social Irresponsibility Shocks in Taiwan
Dien Giau Bui, Ting-Hsuan Chen, Iftekhar Hasan, Chih-Yung Lin
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Vol. 108 (April),
2026
Abstract
In this paper, we use granular trading data from Taiwan between 2012 and 2016 to examine how local social capital influences retail investor behavior during corporate social irresponsibility (CSIR) events. Therefore, we are responding to longstanding calls in the international finance literature to explore investor behavior in non-US markets with distinct institutional and cultural characteristics. We find that investors residing in cities with higher social capital are less likely to purchase underpriced stocks following the announcements of negative events despite the potential for positive abnormal returns. This norm-driven restraint reflects a form of socially responsible investing motivated by community-based values rather than economic rationality. By documenting this behavior in an East Asian market, we extend the external validity of social norm theories developed in Western settings and contribute to a more nuanced understanding of how localized social preferences can influence asset pricing and capital allocation in a global context.
Read article
12.03.2026 • 8/2026
Oil price shock threatens recovery in Germany
Globally rising energy prices in the wake of the new Gulf War are clouding the outlook for the German economy. Nevertheless, increased public expenditure is expected to support economic activity both this year and next. According to the spring forecast of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), output is projected to grow by 0.7% in 2026 and by 1.0% in 2027. We expect similar rates of expansion for East Germany. In December, the IWH economists had predicted growth of 1.0% for both 2026 and 2027.
Oliver Holtemöller
Read
Policy Output
Reports › CompNet’s flagship and special reports provide in-depth, data-driven analysis on productivity, competitiveness, and related economic trends, using the latest CompNet…
See page
Research Articles
Research Articles Explore cutting-edge research based on CompNet’s micro-aggregated firm-level data and related analytical tools. These articles cover empirical and theoretical…
See page
Trade Policy Sensitivity and Global Stock Returns: Evidence From the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Dien Giau Bui, Iftekhar Hasan, Chih-Yung Lin, Ngoc Thuy Mai, Chris Vaike
Journal of Banking and Finance,
Vol. 178 (September),
2025
Abstract
This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify firms’ sensitivity to shifts in bilateral trade flows between the United States and its trading partners. We exploit the 2016 U.S. presidential election as an exogenous shock to trade policy expectations and assess the stock market reactions of firms across 52 countries. Our findings indicate that firms with higher trade policy sensitivity experienced significantly more negative stock returns surrounding the election. These results are robust to variations in event windows, return model specifications, and alternative estimations of trade policy sensitivity.
Read article