Climate Change Economics in Vietnam: Redefining Economic Impact
Christian Otto, Christoph Schult, Thomas Vogt
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 15,
2025
Abstract
Vietnam, a lower-middle-income economy, faces severe climate risks from heat waves, sea-level rise, and tropical cyclones, which are expected to intensify under ongoing global warming. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we analyze economic transition dynamics from 2015 to 2100, incorporating heat-induced labor productivity losses, agricultural land loss, and cyclone-related property damage. We compare a Paris-compatible scenario limiting warming to below 2 °C with a high-emission scenario reaching 4–5 °C. While output and investment impacts remain highly uncertain and statistically indistinguishable across scenarios until 2100, consumption losses are significantly larger under high emissions, mainly driven by heat-related productivity declines, with cyclones contributing most to uncertainty. These findings underscore the importance of considering multiple impact channels beyond output damages in climate-development research.
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Media Response
Media Response December 2025 Oliver Holtemöller: Mini-Aufschwung im kommenden Jahr wird wieder kleiner in: Handelsblatt, 12.12.2025 Oliver Holtemöller: Ökonomen rechnen mit…
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Halle Institute for Economic Research
Slight upturn on the horizon, structural problems remain As the year draws to a close, it remains uncertain whether the German economy is on a path to recovery, as export weakness…
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Box 3.6.: Place-based industrial policies and credit markets: Evidence from the former East and West
Aleksandr Kazakov, Michael Koetter
EBRD Transition Report 2024-25,
December
2024
Abstract
The Transition Report 2024-25 focuses on industrial policies in the EBRD regions and beyond. Such policies have seen a resurgence, seeking to address market failures such as environmental degradation. However, their track record is mixed. Their growing popularity is shaped primarily by domestic political economy considerations and rising geopolitical tensions. While industrial policies are typically employed by higher-income economies, they are also now used more frequently in economies with less administrative and fiscal capacity to implement them.
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Alumni
IWH Alumni The IWH maintains contact with its former employees worldwide. We involve our alumni in our work and keep them informed, for example, with a newsletter. We also plan…
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Job Market Candidates
Job Market Candidates Marius Fourné Marius Fourné is a PhD candidate in Economics at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and Martin Luther University of…
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Research Clusters
Three Research Clusters Each IWH research group is assigned to a topic-oriented research cluster. The clusters are not separate organisational units, but rather bundle the…
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Department Profiles
Research Profiles of the IWH Departments All doctoral students are allocated to one of the four research departments (Financial Markets – Laws, Regulations and Factor Markets –…
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3rd TSI Workshop
Presentations 3rd TSI Workshop Vienna The 3rd TSI Workshop, spanning two days, featured presentations and discussions on various aspects of micro data analysis and the Micro Data…
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26.09.2024 • 26/2024
Joint Economic Forecast 2/2024: German economy in transition ‒ weak momentum, low potential growth
The Joint Economic Forecast Project Group forecasts a 0.1% decline in Germany's gross domestic product in 2024. Looking further ahead, the institutes expect a weak recovery with growth of 0.8% (2025) and 1.3% (2026). Compared to the spring forecast, this represents a down-ward revision of 0.2 (2024) and 0.6 (2025) percentage points. “In addition to the economic downturn, the German economy is also being weighed down by structural change,” says Dr Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, head of Forecasting and Economic Policy at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). “Decarbonisation, digitalisation, and demographic change – alongside stronger competition with companies from China – have triggered structural adjustment processes that are dampening the long-term growth prospects of the German economy.”
Oliver Holtemöller
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