Betriebliche Dynamiken und Beschäftigungsergebnisse

Firmengründungen und -schließungen sind in einer Marktwirtschaft für die Reallokation von Ressourcen, strukturellen Wandel und damit für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung von zentraler Bedeutung und spielen vor allem im Hinblick auf die wirtschaftliche Transformation Ostdeutschlands eine zentrale Rolle. Gleichzeitig können die mit dem Strukturwandel verbundenen Arbeitsplatzverluste dramatische Folgen für betroffene Arbeitnehmer haben, wie z.B. Arbeitslosigkeit, Einkommensverluste oder eine geringere Arbeitsplatzqualität. Diese Forschungsgruppe untersucht mithilfe mikroökonometrischer Methoden Gründungen, Wachstumsprozesse und das Scheitern von Unternehmen, die Anzahl und Qualität der von Neugründungen geschaffenen Arbeitsplätze und die Folgen von Firmenschließungen für betroffene Arbeitnehmer und Arbeitnehmerinnen, vor allem in Bezug auf Arbeitsmarktergebnisse wie Beschäftigung und Löhne.

Forschungscluster
Produktivität und Institutionen

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Dr. André Diegmann
Dr. André Diegmann
Mitglied - Abteilung Strukturwandel und Produktivität
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PROJEKTE

01.2020 ‐ 06.2024

Europas populistische Parteien im Aufwind: die dunkle Seite von Globalisierung und technologischem Wandel?

VolkswagenStiftung

Die Globalisierung hat zwar allgemein den Wohlstand gesteigert, aber in vielen Regionen Europas auch zu Arbeitslosigkeit, Lohnungleichheit, Abwanderung und Überalterung geführt. Das Projekt untersucht, ob diese ökonomischen Lasten zu Wählerstimmen für populistische Parteien führen.

Projektseite ansehen

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

01.2019 ‐ 06.2022

MICROPROD („Raising EU Productivity: Lessons from Improved Micro Data“)

Europäische Kommission

Ziel von MICROPROD ist es, zu einem besseren Verständnis der Herausforderungen beizutragen, die die vierte industrielle Revolution in Europa mit sich bringt. Verliert das Produktivitätswachstum im Kontext von Globalisierung und Digitalisierung an Schwung, und wenn ja, warum?

Projektseite ansehen

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 764810.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

07.2018 ‐ 12.2020

Firmenlohndifferentiale in unvollkommenen Arbeitsmärkten: Die Rolle von Marktmacht und industriellen Beziehungen in der Aufteilung der Beschäftigungsrenten zwischen Arbeitnehmern und Arbeitgebern

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Ziel dieses Projekts ist es, die Aufteilung der Beschäftigungsrenten auf unvollkommenen Arbeitsmärkten und den Einfluss von Arbeitsmarktinstitutionen wie Tarifbindung und betrieblicher Mitbestimmung auf Firmenlohndifferentiale zu untersuchen. Über die Grundlagenforschung hinaus hat das Projekt damit Potential, wichtige wirtschaftspolitische Debatten zur institutionellen Ausgestaltung des Lohnfindungsprozesses zu informieren.

DFG-Projektseite ansehen

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

02.2019 ‐ 09.2019

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2018 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Fehlende Fachkräfte in Deutschland – Unterschiede in den Betrieben und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren: Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2018. IAB-Forschungsbericht 10/2019.

Dr. Eva Dettmann

04.2016 ‐ 03.2019

Lohn- und Beschäftigungseffekte von Insolvenzen

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Ziel des Projekts ist es, erstmals den Prozess und die Folgen des Scheiterns von Unternehmen ausführlich zu analysieren. Insbesondere ist es im Rahmen dieses Projekts erstmals möglich, die Folgen kleinbetrieblicher Insolvenzen zu erforschen, was vor allem deshalb relevant ist, weil Arbeitnehmer in Betrieben mit weniger als zehn Beschäftigten etwa viermal so häufig von Insolvenzen betroffen sind wie Arbeitnehmer in Großbetrieben.

Projektergebnisse im Überblick     Projekt-Website

Dr. Daniel Fackler
Professor Dr. Steffen Müller
Dr. Jens Stegmaier

01.2018 ‐ 12.2018

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2017 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Lohnunterschiede zwischen Betrieben in Ost- und Westdeutschland: Ausmaß und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2017. IAB-Forschungsbericht 6/2018.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

01.2017 ‐ 09.2017

Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels 2016 und Erstellung eines Ergebnisberichts für West- und Ostdeutschland

Abschlussbericht: Produktivitätsunterschiede zwischen West- und Ostdeutschland und mögliche Erklärungsfaktoren. Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2016. IAB-Forschungsbericht 16/2017.

Professor Dr. Steffen Müller

Referierte Publikationen

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Preferred Field of Study and Academic Performance

Francesco Berlingieri André Diegmann Maresa Sprietsma

in: Economics of Education Review, August 2023

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of studying the first-choice university subject on dropout and switching field of study for a cohort of students in Germany. Using detailed survey data, and employing an instrumental variable strategy based on variation in the local field of study availability, we provide evidence that students who are not enrolled in their preferred field of study are more likely to change their field, delay graduation and drop out of university. The estimated impact on dropout is particularly strong among students of low socio-economic status and is likely to be driven by lower effort and motivation.

Publikation lesen

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Micro Data on Robots from the IAB Establishment Panel

Verena Plümpe Jens Stegmaier

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Nr. 3, 2023

Abstract

Micro-data on robots have been very sparse in Germany so far. Consequently, a dedicated section has been introduced in the IAB Establishment Panel 2019 that includes questions on the number and type of robots used. This article describes the background and development of the survey questions, provides information on the quality of the data, possible checks and steps of data preparation. The resulting data is aggregated on industry level and compared with the frequently used robot data by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) which contains robot supplier information on aggregate robot stocks and deliveries.

Publikation lesen

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Males Should Mail? Gender Discrimination in Access to Childcare

Henning Hermes Philipp Lergetporer Fabian Mierisch Frauke Peter Simon Wiederhold

in: American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Abstract

This study investigates discrimination against women when searching and applying for childcare in a nationwide field experiment. We send emails from fictitious parents to 9,313 childcare centers in Germany inquiring about access to childcare. We randomize whether the email is sent by the child's mother or father. Our results show that women receive shorter and less positive responses than men. The probability of receiving a response does not differ by gender, highlighting the importance of going beyond response rates to detect discrimination. We provide suggestive evidence that regional differences in gender discrimination are related to gender norms.

Publikation lesen

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Robots and Female Employment in German Manufacturing

Liuchun Deng Steffen Müller Verena Plümpe Jens Stegmaier

in: American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Abstract

We analyze the impact of robot adoption on female employment. Our analysis is based on novel micro data on robot use by German manufacturing establishments linked with social security records. An event study analysis for robot adoption shows increased churning among female workers. Whereas hiring rises significantly at robot adoption, separations increase with a smaller magnitude one year later. Overall, employment effects are modestly positive and strongest for medium-qualified women. We find no adverse employment effects for female workers in any of our broad qualification groups. 

Publikation lesen

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The Impact of Delay: Evidence from Formal out-of-Court Restructuring

Stjepan Srhoj Dejan Kovač Jacob N. Shapiro Randall K. Filer

in: Journal of Corporate Finance, February 2023

Abstract

Different types of bankruptcy restructuring procedures are used in most legal systems to decide the fate of businesses facing financial hardship. We study how bargaining failures in an under-researched type of restructuring procedure, a formal out-of-the court procedure impacts the economic performance of participating firms. Croatia introduced a “pre-bankruptcy settlement” (PBS) process in the wake of the Great Recession of 2007–2009. A novel dataset provides us with annual financial statements for both sides of more than 180,000 debtor–creditor pairs, enabling us to address selection into failed negotiations by matching a rich set of creditor and debtor characteristics. Failures to settle at the PBS stage due to idiosyncratic bargaining problems, which effectively delay entry into the standard bankruptcy procedure, lead to a lower rate of survival among debtors as well as reduced employment, revenue, and profits. We are the first study to track how bargaining failures diffuse through the network of creditors, finding a significant negative effect on small creditors, but not others. Our results highlight the impact of delay and the importance of structuring bankruptcy procedures, to rapidly resolve uncertainty about firms’ future prospects.

Publikation lesen

Arbeitspapiere

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Import Shocks and Voting Behavior in Europe Revisited

Annika Backes Steffen Müller

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 8, 2024

Abstract

We provide first evidence for the long-run causal impact that Chinese imports to European regions had on voting outcomes and revisit earlier estimates of the short-run impact for a methodological reason. The fringes of the political spectrum gained ground many years after the China shock plateaued and, unlike an earlier study by Colantone and Stanig (2018b), we do not find any robust evidence for a short-run effect on far-right votes. Instead, far-left and populist parties gained in the short run. We identify persistent long-run effects of import shocks on voting. These effects are biased towards populism and, to a lesser extent, to the far-right.

Publikation lesen

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Income Shocks, Political Support and Voting Behaviour

Richard Upward Peter Wright

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 1, 2024

Abstract

We provide new evidence on the effects of economic shocks on political support, voting behaviour and political opinions over the last 25 years. We exploit a sudden, large and long-lasting shock in the form of job loss and trace out its impact on individual political outcomes for up to 10 years after the event. The availability of detailed information on households before and after the job loss event allows us to reweight a comparison group to closely mimic the job losers in terms of their observable characteristics, pre-existing political support and voting behaviour. We find consistent, long-lasting but quantitatively small effects on support and votes for the incumbent party, and short-lived effects on political engagement. We find limited impact on the support for fringe or populist parties. In the context of Brexit, opposition to the EU was much higher amongst those who lost their jobs, but this was largely due to pre-existing differences which were not exacerbated by the job loss event itself.

Publikation lesen

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Safety Net or Helping Hand? The Effect of Job Search Assistance and Compensation on Displaced Workers

Daniel Fackler Jens Stegmaier Richard Upward

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 18, 2023

Abstract

We provide the first systematic evidence on the effectiveness of a contested policy in Germany to help displaced workers. So-called “transfer companies” (<i>Transfergesellschaften</i>) employ displaced workers for a fixed period, during which time workers are provided with job-search assistance and are paid a wage which is a substantial fraction of their pre-displacement wage. Using rich and accurate data on workers’ employment patterns before and after displacement, we compare the earnings and employment outcomes of displaced workers who entered transfer companies with those that did not. Workers can choose whether or not to accept a position in a transfer company, and therefore we use the availability of a transfer company at the establishment level as an IV in a model of one-sided compliance. Using an event study, we find that workers who enter a transfer company have significantly worse post-displacement outcomes, but we show that this is likely to be the result of negative selection: workers who lack good outside opportunities are more likely to choose to enter the transfer company. In contrast, ITT and IV estimates indicate that the use of a transfer company has a positive and significant effect on employment rates five years after job loss, but no significant effect on earnings. In addition, the transfer company provides significant additional compensation to displaced workers in the first 12 months after job loss.

Publikation lesen

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Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany

Ufuk Akcigit Harun Alp André Diegmann Nicolas Serrano-Velarde

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 17, 2023

Abstract

This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment growth rate, a 14% points higher annual productivity growth, and a 3.6% points higher probability of exit for firms with binding employment targets. Our calibrated model further demonstrates that without these targets, aggregate employment would have been 15% lower after 10 years. Additionally, an alternative policy of productivity investment subsidies proved costly and less effective in the short term.

Publikation lesen

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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico

Stefan Leopold Jens Ruhose Simon Wiederhold

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 16, 2023

Abstract

The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.

Publikation lesen
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