Volatilität, Wachstum und Finanzkrisen

Diese Forschungsgruppe erforscht – auch vor dem Hintergrund der jüngsten Krisen – den Zusammenhang zwischen finanziellen und monetären Größen, realwirtschaftlichen Schwankungen und langfristigem Wirtschaftswachstum.

IWH-Datenprojekt: Financial Stability Indicators in Europe

Forschungscluster
Finanzstabilität und Regulierung

Ihr Kontakt

Juniorprofessor Dr. Gregor von Schweinitz
Juniorprofessor Dr. Gregor von Schweinitz
Mitglied - Abteilung Makroökonomik
Nachricht senden +49 345 7753-744

PROJEKTE

01.2017 ‐ 12.2018

Early-warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Juniorprofessor Dr. Gregor von Schweinitz

01.2018 ‐ 12.2018

International Monetary Policy Transmission

Deutsche Bundesbank

Juniorprofessor Dr. Gregor von Schweinitz

Referierte Publikationen

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Macroeconomic Adjustment: The Baltic States versus Euro Area Crisis Countries

Axel Lindner

in: Intereconomics, Nr. 6, 2011

Abstract

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have succeeded in rapidly reducing their current account deficits despite fixed exchange rates. Which factors have played a major role in this? What similarities, and what differences, do the Baltic states show compared to Greece and Portugal? What insights can be gained for the political debate on the euro area debt crisis?

Publikation lesen

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Did the Crisis Affect Potential Output?

Makram El-Shagi

in: Applied Economics Letters, Nr. 8, 2011

Abstract

Conventional Phillips-curve models that are used to estimate the output gap detect a substantial decline in potential output due to the present crisis. Using a multivariate state space model, we show that this result does not hold if the long run role of excess liquidity (that we estimate endogeneously) for inflation is taken into account.

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New IMF Lending Facilities and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets

J. John Tobias Knedlik

in: Economic Analysis and Policy, Nr. 2, 2011

Abstract

In the light of the current global financial and economic crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has undertaken some major reforms of its lending facilities. The new Flexible Credit Line and the High Access Precautionary Arrangements differ from what has been in place so far, by allowing for ex ante conditionality. This paper summarizes preconditions for effective last resort lending and evaluates the newly introduced measures, concluding that the Flexible Credit Line comes very close to what has been called an International Lender of Last Resort. The main obstacles are the low demand and slow progress in complementary reforms.

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Government Interventions in Banking Crises: Effects of Alternative Schemes on Bank Lending and Risk-taking

Diemo Dietrich Achim Hauck

in: Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Nr. 2, 2012

Abstract

We analyse the effects of policy measures to stop the fall in loan supply following a banking crisis. We apply a dynamic framework in which a debt overhang induces banks to curtail lending or to choose a fragile capital structure. Government assistance conditional on new banking activities, like on new lending or on debt and equity issues, allows banks to influence the scale of the assistance and to externalise risks, implying overinvestment or excessive risk taking or both. Assistance without reference to new activities, like granting lump sum transfers or establishing bad banks, does not generate adverse incentives but may have higher fiscal costs.

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Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-candidates

Hubert Gabrisch Lucjan T. Orlowski

in: Comparative Economic Studies, Nr. 4, 2011

Abstract

This study investigates extreme tail risks in financial markets of the euro-candidate countries and their implications for monetary policies. Our empirical tests show the prevalence of extreme risks in the conditional volatility series of selected financial variables, that is, interbank rates, equity market indexes and exchange rates. We argue that excessive instability of key target and instrument variables should be mitigated by monetary policies. Central banks in these countries will be well-advised to use both standard and unorthodox (discretionary) tools of monetary policy while steering their economies out of the financial crisis and through the euro-convergence process.

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