Plant-level Employment Development before Collective Displacements: Comparing Mass Layoffs, Plant Closures, and Bankruptcies
Daniel Fackler, Steffen Müller, Jens Stegmaier
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 27,
2016
Abstract
To assess to what extent collective job displacements can be regarded as unanticipated exogenous shocks for affected employees, we analyze plant-level employment patterns before bankruptcy, plant closure without bankruptcy, and mass layoff. Utilizing administrative data covering all West German private sector plants, we find no systematic employment reductions prior to mass layoffs, a strong and long-lasting reduction prior to closures, and a much shorter shadow of death preceding bankruptcy. Our analysis of worker flows underlines that bankruptcies seem to struggle for survival while closures follow a shrinking strategy. We conclude that the scope of worker anticipation of upcoming job loss is smallest for mass layoffs and largest for closures without bankruptcy.
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Was wissen wir über Betriebsschließungen? Erkenntnisse für West- und Ostdeutschland
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel
Wirtschaftsdienst,
Nr. 2,
2015
Abstract
Schließungen nicht wettbewerbsfähiger Betriebe sind ein wesentliches Element der Marktwirtschaft, werden aber oft kontrovers diskutiert. Wie hoch ist das Risiko einer Betriebsschließung überhaupt und wie hat es sich im Lauf der Zeit entwickelt? Welche Betriebe sind besonders gefährdet? Sterben Betriebe eher einen plötzlichen Tod oder zeichnen sich Betriebsschließungen oft schon Jahre im Voraus ab?
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Lingering Illness or Sudden Death? Pre-exit Employment Developments in German Establishments
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel, J. Wagner
Industrial and Corporate Change,
Nr. 4,
2014
Abstract
Using a large administrative data set for Germany, this article compares employment developments in exiting and surviving establishments. Applying a matching approach, we find a clear “shadow of death” effect reflecting lingering illness: in both West and East Germany establishments shrink dramatically already several years before closure, employment growth rates differ strongly between exiting and surviving establishments, and this difference becomes stronger as exit approaches. Moreover, we provide first evidence that prior to exit the workforce becomes on average more skilled, more female, and older in exiting compared to surviving establishments. These effects are more clearly visible in West than in East Germany.
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