23.02.2022 • 4/2022
Einladung zur Konferenz „Wirtschaft nach Corona – Was tun für den Ausstieg aus dem Krisenmodus?“ am 1. März 2022
Zwei Jahre nach Ausbruch der Pandemie wird eine veränderte Normalität greifbar. Mit welchen Risiken, aber auch mit welchen Chancen Politik und Unternehmen jetzt zu tun haben, diskutiert eine Online-Konferenz am Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH). Zur Eröffnung spricht die FDP-Politikerin Katja Hessel, parlamentarische Staatssekretärin beim Bundesminister der Finanzen.
Oliver Holtemöller
Pressemitteilung lesen
The Role of State-owned Banks in Crises: Evidence from German Banks During COVID-19
Xiang Li
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 6,
2022
Abstract
By adopting a difference-in-differences specification combined with propensity score matching, I provide evidence using the microdata of German banks that stateowned savings banks have lent less than credit cooperatives during the COVID-19 crisis. In particular, the weaker lending effects of state-owned banks are pronounced for long-term and nonrevolving loans but insignificant for short-term and revolving loans. Moreover, the negative impact of government ownership is larger for borrowers who are more exposed to the COVID-19 shock and in regions where the ruling parties are longer in office and more positioned on the right side of the political spectrum.
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How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Debt Maturity?
Xiang Li
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 5,
2022
Abstract
This paper investigates whether and how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate debt maturity. Using a large firm-level dataset for four European countries, we find that an increase in economic policy uncertainty is significantly associated with a shortened debt maturity. Moreover, the impacts are stronger for innovation-intensive firms. We use firms’ flexibility in changing debt maturity and the deviation to leverage target to gauge the causal relationship, and identify the reduced investment and steepened term structure as the transmission mechanisms.
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Trade Shocks, Labour Markets and Elections in the First Globalisation
Richard Bräuer, Wolf-Fabian Hungerland, Felix Kersting
Abstract
This paper studies the economic and political effects of a large trade shock in agriculture – the grain invasion from the Americas – in Prussia during the first globalisation (1871-1913). We show that this shock accelerated the structural change in the Prussian economy through migration of workers to booming cities. In contrast to studies using today’s data, we do not observe declining per capita income and political polarisation in counties affected by foreign competition. Our results suggest that the negative and persistent effects of trade shocks we see today are not a universal feature of globalisation, but depend on labour mobility. For our analysis, we digitise data from Prussian industrial and agricultural censuses on the county level and combine it with national trade data at the product level. We exploit the cross-regional variation in cultivated crops within Prussia and instrument with Italian trade data to isolate exogenous variation.
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International Trade Barriers and Regional Employment: The Case of a No-Deal Brexit
Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch, Oliver Holtemöller
Journal of Economic Structures,
Nr. 11,
2021
Abstract
We use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the case of a no-deal Brexit in which imports to the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) would be subject to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. First, we derive the decline in UK final goods imports from the EU from industry-specific international trade elasticities, tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the potential output and employment effects for 56 industries and 43 countries on the national level. The absolute effects would be largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK, such as Germany and France. However, there would also be large countries outside the EU which would be heavily affected via global value chains, such as China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) would be largest in Ireland followed by Belgium. In a second step, we split up the national effects on the NUTS-2 level for EU member states and additionally on the county (NUTS-3) level for Germany. The share of affected workers varies between 0.03% and 3.4% among European NUTS-2 regions and between 0.15% and 0.4% among German counties. A general result is that indirect effects via global value chains, i.e., trade in intermediate inputs, are more important than direct effects via final demand.
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Political Cycles in Bank Lending to the Government
Michael Koetter, Alexander Popov
Review of Financial Studies,
Nr. 6,
2021
Abstract
We study how political party turnover after German state elections affects banks’ lending to the regional government. We find that between 1992 and 2018, party turnover at the state level leads to a sharp and substantial increase in lending by local savings banks to their home-state government. This effect is accompanied by an equivalent reduction in private lending. A statistical association between political party turnover and government lending is absent for comparable cooperative banks that exhibit a similar regional organization and business model. Our results suggest that political frictions may interfere with government-owned banks’ local development objectives.
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Die Wirkung von GRW-Investitionszuschüssen – ein Beitrag zum Aufholprozess?
Matthias Brachert, Eva Dettmann, Lutz Schneider, Mirko Titze
Wirtschaftsdienst,
Konferenzband "30 Jahre Deutsche Einheit", März
2021
Abstract
Die Gemeinschaftsaufgabe „Verbesserung der regionalen Wirtschaftsstruktur“ (GRW) ist das wichtigste regionalpolitische Programm in Deutschland und wurde nach der Wiedervereinigung in großem Umfang zur Unterstützung des wirtschaftlichen Transformationsprozesses in den neuen Bundesländern eingesetzt. Ein Überblick über nationale und internationale kausalanalytische Studien zur Wirkung von Investitionszuschüssen zeigt, dass solche Programme positive Effekte auf die Entwicklung insbesondere von Beschäftigung und Einkommen haben. Nicht nur die geförderten Betriebe profitieren von der Unterstützung, sondern die Regionen insgesamt. Auch wenn die Studien nicht bis in die frühen 1990er Jahre zurückreichen, kann man daraus schließen, dass die GRW zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland beigetragen hat – und zum Aufholprozess.
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Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century
Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel, Javier Miranda, Daniel Sichel
NBER Studies in Income and Wealth,
2021
Abstract
Measuring innovation is challenging both for researchers and for national statisticians, and it is increasingly important in light of the ongoing digital revolution. National accounts and many other economic statistics were designed before the emergence of the digital economy and the growing importance of intangible capital. They do not yet fully capture the wide range of innovative activity that is observed in modern economies.
This volume examines how to measure innovation, track its effects on economic activity and prices, and understand how it has changed the structure of production processes, labor markets, and organizational form and operation in business. The contributors explore new approaches to, and data sources for, measurement—such as collecting data for a particular innovation as opposed to a firm, and the use of trademarks for tracking innovation. They also consider the connections between university-based R&D and business startups, and the potential impacts of innovation on income distribution.
The research suggests potential strategies for expanding current measurement frameworks to better capture innovative activity, such as more detailed tracking of global value chains to identify innovation across time and space, and expanding the measurement of the GDP impacts of innovation in fields such as consumer content delivery and cloud computing.
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Introduction to "Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century"
Javier Miranda
Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century,
NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol 78 /
2021
Abstract
Measuring innovation is challenging both for researchers and for national statisticians, and it is increasingly important in light of the ongoing digital revolution. National accounts and many other economic statistics were designed before the emergence of the digital economy and the growing importance of intangible capital. They do not yet fully capture the wide range of innovative activity that is observed in modern economies. This volume examines how to measure innovation, track its effects on economic activity and prices, and understand how it has changed the structure of production processes, labor markets, and organizational form and operation in business. The contributors explore new approaches to, and data sources for, measurement—such as collecting data for a particular innovation as opposed to a firm, and the use of trademarks for tracking innovation. They also consider the connections between university-based R&D and business startups, and the potential impacts of innovation on income distribution. The research suggests potential strategies for expanding current measurement frameworks to better capture innovative activity, such as more detailed tracking of global value chains to identify innovation across time and space, and expanding the measurement of the GDP impacts of innovation in fields such as consumer content delivery and cloud computing.
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30 Jahre nach der Wiedervereinigung hat das Bruttoinlandsprodukt als Indikator ausgedient
Oliver Holtemöller
Wirtschaftsdienst,
Konferenzband "30 Jahre Deutsche Einheit", März
2021
Abstract
Der Vergleich der Lebensverhältnisse in Ost- und Westdeutschland orientiert sich häufig am Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner:in. Dieses Maß ist jedoch für sich genommen kein guter Wohlfahrtsindikator. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass gemessen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner:in in absehbarer Zukunft keine wesentliche weitere Angleichung der Wirtschaftskraft in Ost- und Westdeutschland mehr stattfinden wird. Denn die Altersstruktur Ostdeutschlands, d. h. das Verhältnis von Erwerbstätigenzahl zu Einwohnerzahl, ist ungünstiger als im Westen. Betrachtet man hingegen wichtige Wohlfahrtsindikatoren wie Konsummöglichkeiten, Lebenserwartung, Freizeit und Einkommensungleichheit, so sind die Lebensverhältnisse in Ost- und Westdeutschland ähnlicher als das Bruttoinlandsprodukt je Einwohner:in suggeriert. In den Debatten über den Aufholprozess Ostdeutschlands sollte daher stärker auf die Arbeitsproduktivität als Maß für die Wirtschaftskraft und auf andere Wohlfahrtsindikatoren als Maß für die Angleichung der Lebensverhältnisse abgestellt werden.
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