presse@iwh-halle.de
So viele Firmenpleiten wie seit Jahrzehnten nicht
Steffen Müller
Handelsblatt, 10. April 2024
We show that occasional deviations from efficient wage-setting generate strong and statedependent amplication of exogenous uncertainty shocks and contribute to explain the observed countercyclicality of empirical measures of aggregate uncertainty.
A growing recent literature relies on a precautionary pricing motive embedded in representative agent DSGE models with sticky prices and wages to generate negative output effects of uncertainty shocks.
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net softthresholding rule.