Search Results

All
Data Type
Topic
Year
Refresh

EFN Report Autumn 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
The euro area economy benefits from dynamic growth of exports to the emerging markets. Exports to Asia in particular have exceeded their peak level of spring 2008 as early as at the beginning of this year. Firms reacted by restocking and investing in equipment. The growth hike of the second quarter, however, will not be repeated, as it was favored by special factors. We expect euro area GDP to grow by around 1.6% in 2010 and 2011. The upswing of world trade calms down in the second half of this year and the effects of fiscal consolidation in Europe become increasingly felt.
Read article

EFN Report Summer 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
The world economy is recovering, largely driven by upswings in most emerging market economies. Although growth in these regions is apparently calming down at present, the euro area will still be benefiting from the momentum of a healthily expanding world trade for much of the remaining year. Rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery in the euro area during the first half of 2010. We expect euro area GDP to grow by around 1.0% in 2010 and 1.6% in 2011, respectively. Due to this increase in external demand, the growth rate of the industrial production index has also gained momentum: during 2010 the industrial production index is expected to grow around 7%, though only at about 3% in 2011.
Read article

04.06.2010 • 30/2010

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose: IWH-Forscher weiter im Kreis der führenden Konjunkturexperten

Das Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) wird auch in den kommenden drei Jahren an dem gemeinsamen Konjunkturgutachten der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute für die Bundesregierung mitarbeiten. Am Donnerstag verkündete das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium die Entscheidung zugunsten der Bietergemeinschaft des IWH mit dem neuen Partner, der Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting GmbH & Co. KG. Ebenfalls beteiligt sind das ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e. V. an der Universität München gemeinsam mit der Konjunkturforschungsstelle an der ETH Zürich KOF, das Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel gemeinsam mit dem Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH Mannheim und das Rheinisch-Westfälische Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e. V. Essen mit dem Institut für Höhere Studien Wien.

Oliver Holtemöller
Download Press Release

EFN Report Spring 2010: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
The world economy will recover during 2010 and 2011 thanks to ultra-low key interest rates in industrial countries and to the strong growth in emerging markets economies. In the euro area, however, the phasing out of expansive fiscal policies and fiscal consolidation will drag down demand; rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery. Internal demand will have a positive (although small) contribution to growth in 2011. We expect euro area GDP to grow around 1.2% and 1.6% during 2010 and 2011, respectively. Due to rising exports, the industrial sector will resume positive growth in the short run but the intensity of the recovery will be moderate and insufficient to compensate the sharp fall of 2009: at the end of 2011, the industrial production index is expected to be still 10% below its pre-crisis levels.
Read article

A First Look on the New Halle Economic Projection Model

Sebastian Giesen, Oliver Holtemöller, Juliane Scharff, Rolf Scheufele
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2010
published in: Economic Modelling
Abstract
In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model – the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) – is closely related to studies recently published by the International Monetary Fund (global projection model). Our main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In this version we consider Germany and France, which represent together about 50 percent of Euro area GDP. The model allows for country specific heterogeneity in the sense that we capture different adjustment patterns to economic shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian techniques. Out-of-sample and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts are presented.
Read article

EFN Report Winter 2009/10: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2010 and 2011

, 2010
Abstract
In 2010, the recovery of the world economy will be driven by a strong expansion of production in many emerging markets. Rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery in the euro area. We expect GDP to grow around 1.7% and 1.2% uring 2010 and 2011, respectively. What impedes the recovery is the state of labour markets. In fact, unemployment will continue to rise well into 2011, partly because firms with low capacity utilization will no longer be able to keep workers in employment. The most important reason for the recovery of the real economy appears to be renewed – although still fragile – confidence on financial markets. Official interest rates close to zero and substantial purchases of highly rated assets by important central banks have drastically increased the attractiveness of more risky assets.
Read article

The ADR Shadow Exchange Rate as an Early Warning Indicator for Currency Crises

Stefan Eichler, Alexander Karmann, Dominik Maltritz
Journal of Banking and Finance, No. 11, 2009
Abstract
We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners’ currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.
Read article

EFN Report Autumn 2009: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2009 and 2010

, 2009
Abstract
The world wide recovery will put an end to the recession in the euro area in the second half of 2009, but chances for a robust upswing for the year 2010 are slim. We expect GDP to fall around 4.0% in 2009, but a positive growth rate of 0.8% in 2010. However, as unemployment will continue to rise and fiscal policy in member countries with high budget deficits will become restrictive, private consumption is expected to decrease by -0.5% in 2010. Public consumption, public investment and exports will support aggregate demand. Industrial production has bottomed out in the second quarter of 2009. Nevertheless, industrial recovery will take time and average growth rates are expected to be just slightly positive in 2010 (1.1%). It is worth mentioning that this figure has improved significantly since our last report, as world trade has started to recover and some firms are restocking their inventories or reducing them at a slower rate than in the first half of the year. However, private investment will be declining well into next year, as capacity utilization is extremely low and the real costs of financing are not as attractive as interest rate figures appear to suggest.
Read article

Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015

Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
IWH Discussion Papers, No. 13, 2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009-2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
Read article

EFN Report Summer 2009: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2009 and 2010

, 2009
Abstract
The euro area is experiencing an unprecedented drop in economic activity in the first semester of 2009. Private consumption is expected to decrease by more than 1% compared with the same period a year earlier, investment by about 10%, and exports by 16%. The only support to aggregate demand comes from public consumption, which increases by 1.5%. We do not forecast any major improvement in the euro area economy for the rest of 2009. We expect a year on year decrease of 4.5% in the euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2009, with a drop of 1.2% in private consumption, 9.4% in investment, and 14.9% in exports.
Read article
Mitglied der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft LogoTotal-Equality-LogoSupported by the BMWK