Subsidized Vocational Training: Stepping Stone or Trap? An Evaluation Study for East Germany
Eva Dettmann, Jutta Günther
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 21,
2009
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics, and thus, to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. Besides the ‘total effect’ of support, it is of special interest if the effect is stronger for subsidized youths in external training compared to persons in workplace-related training. The analysis is based on unique and very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh).
The results show that young people who successfully completed a subsidized vocational education are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences on the employment prospects. Besides a quantitative effect, the analysis shows that the graduates of subsidized training work in slightly worse (underqualified) and worse paid jobs than the adolescents in the reference group. The comparison of both types of subsidized vocational training, however, does not confirm the expected stronger effect for youths in external vocational education compared to workplace-related training.
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Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 13,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009-2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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The Transition to Post-industrial BMI Values among US Children
Marco Sunder, Ariane Breitfelder, John Komlos
American Journal of Human Biology,
2009
Abstract
The trend in the BMI values of US children has not been estimated very convincingly because of the absence of longitudinal data. Our objective is to estimate time series of BMI values by birth cohorts instead of measurement years. We use five regression models to estimate the BMI trends of non-Hispanic US-born black and white children and adolescents ages 2-19 between 1941 and 2004. The increase in BMIZ values during the period considered was 1.3 (95% CI: 1.16; 1.44) among black girls, 0.8 for black boys, 0.7 for white boys, and 0.6 for white girls. This translates into an increase in BMI values of some 5.6, 3.3, 2.4, and 1.5 units, respectively. While the increase in BMI values started among the birth cohorts of the 1940s among black girls, the rate of increase tended to accelerate among all four ethnic/gender groups born in the mid-1950s to early-1960s. Some regional evidence leads to the conjecture that the spread of automobiles and radios affected the BMI values of boys already in the interwar period. We suppose that the changes in lifestyle associated with the labor saving technological developments of the 20th century are associated with the weight gains observed. The increased popularity of television viewing was most prominently associated with the contemporaneous acceleration in BMI gain. Am. J. Hum. Biol., 2009. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Capital Stock Approximation using Firm Level Panel Data: A Modified Perpetual Inventory Approach
Steffen Müller
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
Nr. 4,
2008
Abstract
Many recent studies exploring conditional factor demand or factor substitution issues use firm level panel data. A considerable number of establishment panels contains no direct information on the capital input, necessary for production or cost function estimation. Incorrect measurement of capital leads to biased estimates and casts doubt on any inference on output elasticities or input substitution properties. The perpetual inventory approach, commonly used for long panels, is a method that attenuates these problems. In this paper a modified perpetual inventory approach is proposed. This method provides more reliable measures for capital input when short firm panels are used and no direct information on capital input is available. The empirical results based on a replication study of Addison et al. (2006) support the conclusion that modified perpetual inventory is superior to previous attempts in particular when fixed effects estimation techniques are used. The method thus makes a considerable number of recently established firm panels accessible to more sophisticated production function or factor demand analyses.
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Hat die Befristung von Arbeitsverträgen einen Einfluss auf die berufliche Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen?
Eva Reinowski, Jan Sauermann
Zeitschrift für Arbeitsmarktforschung,
Nr. 4,
2008
Abstract
Anhand des Mikrozensus 2004 wird untersucht, ob die Befristung von Arbeitsverträgen Einfluss auf die Beteiligung geringqualifiziert Beschäftigter an beruflicher Weiterbildung hat. Zur Berücksichtigung systematischer Unterschiede zwischen befristet und unbefristet Beschäftigten wird für die Analyse ein rekursives bivariates Probitmodell eingesetzt. Es wird kein systematischer Nachteil einer Befristung für geringqualifiziert Beschäftigte beim Zugang zu beruflicher Weiterbildung festgestellt.
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Hat die Befristung von Arbeitsverträgen einen Einfluss auf die Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen?
Eva Reinowski, Jan Sauermann
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 2,
2008
Abstract
Ähnlich wie in anderen europäischen Ländern wurde der Einsatz von befristeten Beschäftigungsverhältnissen in Deutschland seit den 1980ern vereinfacht. Als Folge dieser Vereinfachungen nimmt die Bedeutung dieser Beschäftigungsform als Instrument zur Flexibilisierung der Arbeitsnachfrage gerade bei geringqualifiziert Beschäftigten zu. Obwohl die Möglichkeit von Befristungen Chancen für Arbeitgeber und Arbeitnehmer eröffnet, wird in der Literatur argumentiert, dass befristete Beschäftigungsverhältnisse eine Art „Sackgasse“ darstellen und mit geringeren Investitionen in berufliche Weiterbildung verbunden sind. In diesem Beitrag wird anhand der Daten des Mikrozensus 2004 untersucht, welchen Einfluss befristete Arbeitsverträge auf die Beteiligung an beruflicher Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen haben. Die empirische Analyse wird mit Hilfe eines rekursiven bivariaten Probitmodells durchgeführt. Aus den Ergebnissen lässt sich schließen, dass geringqualifiziert Beschäftigte mit befristeten Arbeitsverträgen keinen systematischen Nachteil gegenüber unbefristet Beschäftigten beim Zugang zu beruflicher Weiterbildung haben.
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Does Qualification Drive Innovation? A Microeconometric Analysis Using Linked-employer-employee Data
Bianca Brandenburg, Jutta Günther, Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 10,
2007
Abstract
Degree-level science and engineering skills as well as management and leadership skills are often referred to as a source of innovative activities within companies. Broken down by sectoral innovation patterns, this article examines the role of formal education and actual occupation for product innovation performance in manufacturing firms within a probit model. It uses unique micro data for Germany (LIAB) that contain detailed information about innovative activities and the qualification of employees. We find significant differences of the human capital endowment between sectors differentiated according to the Pavitt classification. Sectors with a high share of highly skilled employees engage in product innovation above average (specialized suppliers and science based industries). According to our hitherto estimation results, within these sectors the share of highly skilled employees does not, however, substantially increase the probability to be an innovative firm.
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Sind ältere Beschäftigte weniger produktiv? Eine empirische Analyse anhand des LIAB
Lutz Schneider
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 13,
2006
Abstract
Vor dem Hintergrund der sich abzeichnenden Alterung der Erwerbsfähigen in Deutschland und der unzureichenden Arbeitsmarktchancen Älterer geht der vorliegende Beitrag anhand eines neuen Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatzes der Frage nach, ob sich verschiedene Altersgruppen in ihrem Produktivitätsniveau unterscheiden. Für das Verarbeitende Gewerbe zeigen die realisierten Querschnittsschätzungen für die Jahre 2000 und 2003 klare Belege einer höheren Produktivität der Beschäftigten im mittleren Alter. Die Resultate für den Dienstleistungssektor erweisen sich hingegen als wenig aussagekräftig.
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Who Invests in Training if Contracts are Temporary? - Empirical Evidence for Germany Using Selection Correction
Jan Sauermann
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 14,
2006
Abstract
This study deals with the effect of fixed-term contracts on work-related training. Though previous studies found a negative effect of fixed-term contracts on the participation in training, from the theoretical point of view it is not clear whether workers with fixed-term contracts receive less or more training, compared to workers with permanent contracts. In addition to the existing strand of literature, we especially distinguish between employer- and employee-financed training in order to allow for diverging investment patterns of worker and firm. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we estimate a bivariate probit model to control for selection effects that may arise from unobservable factors, affecting both participation in training and holding fixed-term contracts. Finding negative effects for employer-sponsored, as well as for employee-sponsored training, leads us to conclude that workers with fixed-term contracts do not compensate for lower firm investments.
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The unemployment-growth relationship in transition countries
Hubert Gabrisch, Herbert Buscher
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 5,
2005
Abstract
Does the disappointingly high unemployment in Central and East European countries reflect non-completed adjustment to institutional shocks from transition to a market economy, or is it the result of high labour market rigidities, or rather a syndrome of too weak aggregate demand and output? In the case of transitional causes, unemployment is expected to decline over time. Otherwise, it would pose a challenge to the European Union, particular in case of accession countries, for it jeopardizes the ambitious integration plans of, and may trigger excessive migration to the Union. In order to find out which hypothesis holds 15 years after transition has started, we analyze the unemploymentgrowth dynamics in the eight new member countries from Central-Eastern Europe. The study is based on country and panel regressions with instrument variables (TSLS). The results suggest to declare the transition of labour markets as completed; unemployment responds to output and not to a changing institutional environment for job creation. The regression coefficients report a high trend rate of productivity and a high unemployment intensity of output growth since 1998. The conclusion is that labour market rigidities do not to play an important role in explaining high unemployment rates. Rather, GDP growth is dominated by productivity progress, while the employment relevant component of aggregate demand is too low to reduce substantially the high level of unemployment.
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