Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2007
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
1. Sonderausgabe
2007
Abstract
In spring 2007, the global economy remains robust. While growth rates have declined slightly from last year, as business activity in the US has slowed, they continue to reflect an upswing, which by now has held on for a notably long time. Especially the developing and emerging countries have been raising output very fast, due in part to their increasing role in the international division of labour. In the industrialised economies, on the other hand, the current recovery has not been remarkably strong. So far the slowdown in the US economy has not spilled over to other regions and the Euro Area as well as Japan continue to expand at a high pace. Here expansive monetary policy provided a notable support. Buoyant financial markets stimulated the world economy additionally, even though market volatility has increased since the end of February. The US central bank’s current concern with inflationary risks keeps it from loosening its slightly restrictive monetary policy. It will be the second half of the year – when price pressures have eased – until the Fed makes its first rate cut. The ECB, on the other hand, has been preparing financial markets for a further increase in interest rates by summer. In 2007 and 2008 the growth disparities in the industrialised countries will diminish. On one hand, the upswing in the Euro Area will start to moderate, as fiscal policy hampers business activity and monetary policy will not stimulate anymore. On the other hand, the US economy will slowly gain pace from summer onwards; the emerging markets will continue to develop in a highly dynamic fashion. World-GDP in this and next year will likely rise by about 3 ¼ % in 2007, which is still faster than in the average of the last ten years. World trade will rise by 7 ½ % in the coming two years. An oil price of 65 US-Dollar and an exchange rate between the Euro and the US-Dollar of 1.32 were assumed for both years 2007 and 2008. The real estate market in the USA continues to be a risk for...
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Original Sin - Analysing Its Mechanics and a proposed Remedy in a Simple Macroeconomic Model
Axel Lindner
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 11,
2006
Abstract
This paper analyses the problem of “original sin“ (the fact that the currency of an emerging market economy usually cannot be used to borrow abroad) in a simple thirdgeneration model of currency crises. The approach differs from alternative frameworks by explicitly modeling the price setting behavior of firms if prices are sticky and the future exchange rate is uncertain. Monetary policy optimally trades off effects on price competitiveness and on debt burdens of firms. It is shown that the proposal by Eichengreen and Hausmann of creating an artificial basket currency as denominator of debt is attractive as a provision against contagion.
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Optimierung der Geldpolitik in Schwellenländern durch einen International-Lender-of-Last-Resort
Tobias Knedlik
Europäische Hochschulschriften, Reihe 5 Volks- und Betriebswirtschaft, Band 3202,
2006
Abstract
Current currency crises in emerging market economies show the insufficiency of preventive measures on national, regional and international level. The task of the book is therefore to analyze systematically which conditions monetary policy has to fulfill in order to prevent currency crises. In a first step optimal, crises-preventing monetary policy is modeled. Further the chances for overcoming the limitations of national policy are discussed on the regional and international level. The main result of the descriptive, theoretical and econometric analysis is the construction of an instrument for international monetary policy: the International Lender of Last Resort.
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Optimale Geld- und Währungspolitik in Südafrika – Modellierung und Schätzung
Tobias Knedlik
Berichte der Internationalen Wissenschaftliche Vereinigung Weltwirtschaft und Weltpolitik e.V. Vol. 15,
No. 161,
2005
Abstract
THE AIM OF THIS PAPER is to combine the estimation of the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) with the theoretic modelling of monetary policy rules for open and emerging market economies using the example of South Africa. The idea that monetary policy is not only interested in optimal monetary conditions but also in external stability, constitutes the basis for the analysis. This idea emerged from studying currency crises that are caused by inadequate monetary policy and in particular from the experience of the Asian crisis of 1997/98 and its worldwide spread also to South Africa. The Monetary Conditions Index is a potentially useful tool for the development of monetary policy rules.
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The MCI as a Monetary Policy Guide in a Small, Open Emerging Market Economy
Philippe Burger, Tobias Knedlik
South African Journal of Economics,
No. 72,
2004
Abstract
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The MCI as a monetary policy guide in a small, open and emerging market economy
Tobias Knedlik, Philippe Burger
Economic Working Paper Series,
2003
Abstract
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Are the Central and Eastern European Transition Countries still vullnerable to an Financial Crisis? Results from the Signals Approach
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 157,
2002
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolution of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects as in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate, weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good predictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities.
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Self-employment – Ideal or emergency solution?
Cornelia Lang
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
1997
Abstract
Im Beitrag wird der Wunsch junger Menschen nach beruflicher Selbständigkeit näher betrachtet. Hinter diesem Wunsch können ganz unterschiedliche Motive stehen und zwischen Wunsch nach Selbständigkeit und der Wirklichkeit – gemessen am Anteil junger Erwachsener, die diesen Weg tatsächlich einschlagen – gibt es beachtliche Diskrepanzen.
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