Economic Effects of the Halle Institute for Economic Research
Ulrich Blum
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 10,
2008
Abstract
The most important approach to assess the scholarly performance of an institute is to evaluate its academic output. Economic research institutes such as the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) furthermore are targeted at providing policy advice to public authorities. This adds an additional criterion, the ability to impact policy discussions in Germany and beyond.
A rarely discussed issue is the effect of an institute on the local economy. The IWH is located in a region of East Germany that is still catching up economically. Transformation problems are still very visible. In such an economic environment, the expenditures of an institute play an important role in stabilizing local demand. The analysis shows, by using input-output-methods, that the most important factor for the local economy is the demand stemming from wages earned by the employees of the institute. Especially the local area, where most of the staff lives, heavily benefits from this effect. Expenditures of about 4.6 million Euros which include the salaries of the staff of about 70 persons generates sufficient demand in the area to guarantee employment for another 35 persons. In addition, as crowding out of activities by additional demand is presently not an issue in East Germany, the taxes generated account for a considerable part of the budget.
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How Does Industry Specialization Affect the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems?
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Jena Economic Research Papers, Nr. 2008-058,
No. 58,
2008
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between the specialization of a region in certain industries and the efficiency of the region in generating new knowledge. The efficiency measure is constructed by relating regional R&D input and output. An inversely u-shaped relationship is found between regional specialization and R&D efficiency, indicating the presence of externalities of both Marshall and Jacobs’ type. Further factors influencing efficiency are spillovers within the private sector as well as from public research institutions. The impact of both the specialization and the additional factors is, however, different for regions at different efficiency levels.
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Capital Stock Approximation using Firm Level Panel Data: A Modified Perpetual Inventory Approach
Steffen Müller
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik,
No. 4,
2008
Abstract
Many recent studies exploring conditional factor demand or factor substitution issues use firm level panel data. A considerable number of establishment panels contains no direct information on the capital input, necessary for production or cost function estimation. Incorrect measurement of capital leads to biased estimates and casts doubt on any inference on output elasticities or input substitution properties. The perpetual inventory approach, commonly used for long panels, is a method that attenuates these problems. In this paper a modified perpetual inventory approach is proposed. This method provides more reliable measures for capital input when short firm panels are used and no direct information on capital input is available. The empirical results based on a replication study of Addison et al. (2006) support the conclusion that modified perpetual inventory is superior to previous attempts in particular when fixed effects estimation techniques are used. The method thus makes a considerable number of recently established firm panels accessible to more sophisticated production function or factor demand analyses.
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Has the International Fragmentation of German Exports Passed its Peak?
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
Intereconomics,
No. 3,
2008
Abstract
In the second half of the nineties the import content of German exports increased considerably. The article examines whether this trend has continued up to the present. A second question concerns the purpose of the imports. Are they intermediate inputs for the production of export goods or imports destined for immediate re-exports? Finally, it must be asked whether these events are singular: Is only Germany among the industrially developed West European countries affected by this development, or are other nations also? These issues are studied by means of tables and the standard static open model of input-output-analysis.
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The Stability of Bank Efficiency Rankings when Risk Preferences and Objectives are Different
Michael Koetter
European Journal of Finance,
No. 2,
2008
Abstract
We analyze the stability of efficiency rankings of German universal banks between 1993 and 2004. First, we estimate traditional efficiency scores with stochastic cost and alternative profit frontier analysis. Then, we explicitly allow for different risk preferences and measure efficiency with a structural model based on utility maximization. Using the almost ideal demand system, we estimate input- and profit-demand functions to obtain proxies for expected return and risk. Efficiency is then measured in this risk-return space. Mean risk-return efficiency is somewhat higher than cost and considerably higher than profit efficiency (PE). More importantly, rank–order correlation between these measures are low or even negative. This suggests that best-practice institutes should not be identified on the basis of traditional efficiency measures alone. Apparently, low cost and/or PE may merely result from alternative yet efficiently chosen risk-return trade-offs.
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Neuere Anwendungsfelder der Input-Output-Analyse in Deutschland
Udo Ludwig
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 3,
2007
Abstract
Der vorliegende Band umfasst die aktualisierte Fassung aller Vorträge, die auf dem Workshop vom 16. bis 17. Februar 2006 zu drei thematischen Schwerpunkten gehalten worden sind: Erstellung von Input-Output-Tabellen, Anwendungen der Input-Output-Methode und Preise in der Input-Output-Rechnung. Schon traditionell gibt einer der Autoren aus dem Statistischen Bundesamt im ersten Schwerpunkt einen Überblick zum aktuellen Stand der amtlichen Input-Output-Rechnung in Deutschland. Im Mittelpunkt des Beitrages von P. Bleses steht dabei das Berichtsjahr 2002, für das die einzelnen Tabellentypen – Aufkommenstabelle, Verwendungstabelle und symmetrische Güterverflechtungstabelle – in aggregierter Form dargestellt und erläutert werden. Im zweiten Beitrag berichten R. Fremdling und R. Stäglin über Fortschritte bei der Erstellung einer historischen Input-Output-Tabelle für das Deutsche Reich im Jahr 1936. Sie präsentieren einen aktualisierten Ausschnitt ihrer Tabelle und stellen Vergleiche mit der Industriestruktur im früheren Bundesgebiet zu Beginn der 1950er Jahre an. Sie zeigen den Einfluss von Aufrüstung, Krieg und Zerstörung auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland in zwei Jahrzehnten. Der zweite Schwerpunkt liegt auf verschiedenen Anwendungsfeldern der Input-Output-Methode. Ein Beitrag kommt aus den Umweltökonomischen Gesamtrechnungen. H. Mayer greift sich die Abbildung des Bereichs Energie heraus und führt eine energetische Input-Output-Analyse aus. Im zweiten Beitrag geht A. Diekmann dem Zusammenhang zwischen Konsum und Verkehr nach. Auf der Grundlage der deutschen Input-Output-Tabelle für das Jahr 2000 wird nicht nur die von den Ausgaben der privaten Haushalte für Verkehrsleistungen ausgehende direkte Abhängigkeit der einzelnen Verkehrszweige vom Konsum, sondern auch die indirekte, die in den anderen Güterkäufen und in deren Wert enthalten ist, untersucht. Der dritte Schwerpunkt wendet sich der Rolle der Preise bei der Abbildung der Transaktionen in den Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen und den Input-Output-Tabellen zu. Die offenen Flanken der Deflationierung anhand der Vorjahrespreisbasis diskutiert U.-P. Reich in seinem Beitrag und setzt ihr die Idee der Volumensrechnung in Vorjahrespreisen mit anschließender Deflationierung anhand der im Zeitablauf geänderten Kaufkraftparitäten entgegen. Anders als in der Konzeptdebatte greift der Beitrag von H.-U. Brautzsch und U. Ludwig auf eine Zeitreihe von deutschen Input-Output-Tabellen für die 1990er Jahre zurück, die anhand einer Festpreisbasis, nämlich der Preise aus dem Jahr 1995, deflationiert wurden. Am Beispiel der in den vergangenen Jahren heftig diskutierten Importabhängigkeit der deutschen Exporte zeigen sie, dass die grundsätzliche Aussage zum Anstieg des Importgehalts der Exportgüterproduktion auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene invariant gegenüber der Analyse zu jeweiligen oder konstanten Preisen ist.
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Globalisierung und Beschäftigung – eine Untersuchung mit der Input-Output-Methode.
Udo Ludwig, Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch
IMK Studies Nr. 1/2008,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
In the course of globalization imports play a more and more important role as inputs for national production. In the wake of this development, domestic products are substituted by imported goods and jobs are moved abroad. However, this enables domestic companies to become more competitive and to improve their position in national and international markets. Applying input-output techniques this paper shows that, although imports have risen considerably, the increase in domestic production induced by exports had an overall positive impact on the German economy. This holds not only for the trade balance of production sectors that are oriented to export activities, but for the trade balance as a whole. Overall, high export surpluses were accompanied by increases in value added. Furthermore, especially in the second half of the last decade employment benefited much; while the rising import of intermediate and finished goods has caused many job cuts, on balance the increase in employment in the wake of the strong export expansion has outdone the losses.
Even though many industrialized economies in Europe have made similar experiences, the impacts on job markets differed considerably. For example, while the strength of the increase in employment in the Netherlands was similarly to that in Germany, labour market improvements in France were much weaker, not least due to noticeably lower export surpluses.
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Research and Development: important source for product innovation also in East Germany
Jutta Günther, François Peglow
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2007
Abstract
The development and successful introduction of new products is a fundamental feature of a modern knowledge society. After completion of the retrieving technological renewals in East Germany, businesses in the newly-formed German states have to stand up to the competition for marketable concepts and ideas. In doing so, the structural particularities on the strength of transformation are still in force and besides, the embedding of East Germany between high-tech in the West and catching up countries in the East constitutes an additional challenge. This article outlines the innovation activities of East German companies and pursues in the framework of an multivariate analysis to follow up intra-corporate determining factors for product innovations The empirical analysis, employing the IAB establishment panel, shows an active share of innovation participation of companies belonging to the manufacturing industry in East Germany during the years 2002 and 2003. The proportion of companies with product innovation in the newly-formed German states even lies slightly above the reference value for West Germany. Especially companies with an own Research and Development (R&D) department are introducing new products twice as much as companies without an R&D division. The regression analysis proves that own R&D represents the strongest driving force for product innovations in regard to input factors. Moreover, continuing operational education can also be attested a positive impact on innovation activities and emphasizes concurrently the meaning of long-life learning. In reference to business specific characteristics, it stands out that foreign equity participation imposes a significant negative impact of on product innovations. This result, deserving further analysis, indicates the phenomenon of so-called subcontracting.
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Long-Term Growth Projections for Eastern Germany
Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2007
Abstract
Recent research comes to the conclusion that the eastern part of Germany not only heavily de-pends on its western counterpart, but that it essentially is dying a slow death. Arguments for this point of view reach from deindustrialisation and the lack of Headquarters of national and international Corporations to the rapidly aging society.
The study at hand assumes that economic development in a specific region does not only de-pend on the quantity and quality of its factors of production, but also on the overall conditions in the national economy a region is connected to. The analysis uses a framework in which the regional production factors are limited to the population and its development. Just as produc-tion, output is restricted to the value added of the region. Since data is only available for the ten years between 1995 - 2005, a panel econometric approach was chosen. For this purpose, the 97 spatial planning regions of Germany (Raumordnungsregionen) were divided into four groups according to their economic growth; slightly surprising, nine regions from Central Germany and Brandenburg fall into the top two groups.
The estimation results show that both economic growth in Germany as a whole as well as increases in the regional number of inhabitants positively influence regional value added. Fur-thermore, the impact of national growth is largest in the group with the highest regional value added and lowest in the group with the smallest regional output. On the other hand, lagged values of regional growth have the greatest impact in the low growth group and the smallest impact in the high growth group.
The main result of the study is that regional economic growth will not necessarily stop when the population is shrinking. After 2020, though, the growth rates of the gross domestic prod-uct will decrease. At the same time, the growth disparities between the different regions will not decline, a process aided by the demographic developments in Germany.
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Universities and Innovation in Space
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Industry and Innovation,
No. 2,
2007
Abstract
We investigate the role of universities as a knowledge source for regional innovation processes. The contribution of universities is tested on the level of German NUTS‐3 regions (Kreise) by using a variety of indicators. We find that the intensity and quality of the research conducted by the universities have a significant effect on regional innovative output while pure size is unimportant. Therefore, a policy that wants to promote regional innovation processes by building up universities should place substantial emphasis on the intensity and quality of the research conducted there. We also find the effects of universities to be concentrated in space. Obviously, the geographical proximity to particular knowledge sources is important for regional innovative activities.
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