22.06.2023 • 16/2023
Revival in service sectors, but industrial activity remains weak for the time being
After the recession during winter, the German economy will expand at a moderate pace in the coming quarters and despite higher interest rates, as private consumption will pick up again with slowly declining inflation and increased wage momentum. In its summer forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to decline by 0.3% in 2023, while growth of 1.7% is forecast for the coming year.
Oliver Holtemöller
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23.05.2023 • 14/2023
Analysis of earnings calls: Blathering managers harm their company
If a senior executive refuses to give information to professional investors, the company's stock market value drops afterwards. This is shown in a study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) after evaluating
1.2 million answers from tele-phone conferences.
Fabian Wöbbeking
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Wage and Employment Effects of Insolvencies
Wage and employment effects of bankruptcies Although the consequences of...
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Joint Economic Forecast
Joint Economic Forecast The joint economic forecast is an instrument for evaluating...
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East Germany
The Nasty Gap 30 years after unification: Why East Germany is still 20% poorer than the...
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Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes...
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Contact Get a quick overview of how to reach us and whom to contact: Postal...
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IWH Bankruptcy Research
IWH Bankruptcy Research The Bankruptcy Research Unit of the Halle Institute for...
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Natural Disasters and Bank Stability: Evidence from the U.S. Financial System
Felix Noth, Ulrich Schüwer
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
May
2023
Abstract
We show that weather-related natural disasters in the United States significantly weaken the financial stability of banks with business activities in affected regions. This is reflected in higher probabilities of default, lower z-scores, higher non-performing assets ratios, higher foreclosure ratios, lower returns on assets and lower equity ratios of affected banks in the years following a natural disaster. The effects are economically relevant and highlight the financial vulnerability of banks and their borrowers despite insurances and public aid programs.
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The Rise of Populist Parties in Europe
The Rise of Populist Parties in Europe: The Dark Side of Globalisation and Technological Change? ...
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