Macroeconomic Modelling of the German Economy in the Framework of Euroland
Rüdiger Pohl, Heinz P. Galler
Schriften des IWH,
No. 11,
2002
Abstract
An attempt to develop a new macroeconometric model for Germany is confronted with several questions that range from the general rationality of such an approach to specific problems of an appropriate model structure. One important aspect of this discussion is the introduction of the Euro as a common currency of the European monetary union. This institutional change may result in structural breaks due to changing behavior of economic agents. In addition, the definition of the spatial unit that is appropriate for modelling becomes a problem. Additional problems come from the introduction of the European Single Market and the increasing international economic integration not only within the European union but also beyond its borders. And in the case of Germany, the unification of the West and the East demand special attention. Last but not least, the harmonization of national accounting for the member states of the European Union has to be dealt with. Thus, the introduction of the Euro as a common currency is just one problem besides others that must be addressed.
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International economic development still impedes growth in Central and Eastern Europe
Axel Brüggemann
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2002
Abstract
The world wide economic slow down has increasingly affected the transition economies. Lower demand in Western Europe for exports from Central and Eastern Europe has depressed industrial production and growth in the region. Strong domestic demand has managed to offset some of the negative external influences. In total the countries in Central and eastern Europe will grow with 3,1 % in 2002 and with 4,1% in 2003. The higher growth in 2003 results from the combination of a continuing strong domestic demand and amore favourabel external environment, as the world economy starts to recover in the second half of 2002. Inflation will continue to slow, while unemployment decreases only marginally. Higher growth will also lead to higher current account deficits.
The slowdown in 2001 has increased the risk potential for financial crises in Central and Eastern Europe. The forecast is build upon the assumption that no such crisis will occur, if a crisis does errupt the forecast will have to be revised downwards. The regular anlysis carried out by the IWH regarding the development of the risk potential, indicate particular high risks for Poland and to a somewhat lesser extent also for Hungary. As the unfavourable external economic conditions will persist for the coming months, a further increase in the risk potential can be expected.
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Prospects for 2002: Waiting for the cyclical change
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2002
Abstract
This article updates the complete analysis and forecast of the economic developments in the World and Germany in particular for 2002, as published in Summer. After six quarters of downturn, the beginning of 2002 does not show signs of a revival in economic activity. Neither internal nor external forces are currently strong enough to reverse the underlying downward trend. It is assumed that by spring time the recession in the USA will have faded. Resulting is a stimulus for the World Economy. This initiating impulse will revive production in Germany and the Euro Area, which by the second half of 2002 will gain pace. The increase in exports, as induced by the upturn in the US-Economy will positively affect domestic demand. With the usual time lag this development will also strengthen the job market. Monetary Policy will remain expansive and begins to show its full effect. Fiscal Policy, on the other hand, due to the need for consolidation, will remain restrictive.
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Risk Potential for Financial Crises for the Central and East European Transition Countries still high
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2002
Abstract
Since the mid-nineties there have been several financial crises in Central and Eastern Europe. Among the countries affected are Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania - all countries with which the European Union is in the midst of accession negotiations. The prevention of financial crises is also important due to the output losses which occurr in the affected countries. Additionally, contagion effects can influence the economic situation in third countries such as those of the EU. For this reason, the IWH analyses on a regular basis the risk potential of the EU-accession countries as well as for Turkey and Russia.
Since the beginning of 1999 at least two different phases in the development of the risk potential can be distinguished for the majority of the Central and Eastern European countries. The first phase is marked by an increase in the risk potential across all countries in the region because of the contagion and spill-over effects following the Russian financial crisis in August 1998. The risk potential was considerably reduced with the phasing out of these effects and a worldwide economic recovery. However, since mid-2000 a second phase has set in. The weaker international environment has again led to a sizable increase in the crisis vulnerability of several countries, where a host of signals indicate an urgent need for economic policy actions.
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Supraregional sales markets: Development chances for companies in the East German manufacturing sector
Brigitte Loose, Udo Ludwig
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 16,
2001
Abstract
In this paper the export activities of the East German manufacturing industry are studied where exports are defined in a broad sense including both sales abroad and in West Germany. Survey data for 1998 and 1999 are used to reveal the relationship between technical as well as institutional characteristics of the companies and their exports. The following questions are discussed: Which companies participate in the export activities? What are the main regions of their business? Which in-house factors influence the export activities? What are the financial outcomes for the companies engaged in exports? Hypotheses are built on the basis of the market transaction costs theory. Bivariate and multivariate approaches are applied. The data are taken from the “Establishment Panel” of the Institute for Employment Research at the Federal Employment Services (IAB) in Nuremberg (Germany).
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Public Research Institutions in East Germany: a Promising Base for Economic Upturn?
Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2001
Abstract
In the 1990s a lot was done to strengthen public research efforts in East Germany. The main indicators relating to public research reflect an ambivalent picture. Investment by universities and public research institutions outside the universities reached a higher level than in West Germany. However, there remains an East-West gap with respect to the capital stock. The per capita stock of R&D staff in the university sector reached almost the level in the old Länder. With respect to the university R&D in engineering sciences, among those fields of university research which are particularly business-related, per capita stock of staff as well as per capita investment in the Eastern German Länder are above the West German level. In university natural science the East-West pattern of the R&D input factors mentioned is reversed. The receipts of the universities acquired from research contracts, which may be used as an indicator to assess the quality of public research, reveal shortcomings. These shortcomings, though these have been partly caused by the transitional situation in East Germany`s universities, where new institutions were built up only gradually. The R&D institutions outside the universities are obviously better equipped than such institutions in West Germany.
The visible advantages offered by public sector research institutions in East Germany might be used much more intensively to foster the economic reconstruction in East Germany. In parallel with this, the remaining shortcomings of public R&D in East Germany should be eliminated. If reductions in universities´ capacities (due, for instance, to a declining number of persons who have a university entrance qualification) seem to be inevitable, the consequences of such restrictions should be carefully reconsidered.
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On the Future EU Cohesion Policies in Association States: the
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2001
Abstract
Not only are levels of economic development in the association states in Central
East Europe lower than the average EU-15. They furthermore exhibit significantly
different sectoral structures. Does this suggest that a large fraction of the develop-
ment gap can be explained by those sectoral differences? In its latest report on
cohesion policy, the EU Commission accordingly placed particular emphasis on
sectoral structures when contemplating future intervention policy in newly acceeding
members.
Our analysis shows, however, that the patterns of sectoral structures play only a
minor role as determinants of the lower level of development, measured here as
productivity gap. The explanatory power of sectoral differennces is significant only
in Slovakia. The suggestions made in the EU-report is not supported by our
analysis. The existing programmes appear to be well equipped to account for the
particuliarities in transition economies.
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Network activities and the productivity gap in East Germany: The role of agglomeration advantages
Anita Wölfl, Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 13,
2001
Abstract
The article presents first some theoretical considerations about the connection between productivity and networking activities of enterprises. By operationalizing networks as an agglomeration of firms in a specific region, it is argued with respect to the East German economy that such networks have not yet developped in a sufficiently matter. Additionally, a “critical“ degree of agglomeration, from which networking activities lead to higher productivity, is missing in nearly all East German regions.
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Germany: Cyclical Improvement not Until the End of the Year
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2001
Abstract
During the second quarter of 2001 German overall production stagnated. Weak global development muddied the economic prospects of firms and prevented them from rising their output and their investment activities. In 2001 gross national product will only increase by 1%; the number of unemployed will be higher than expected. Nevertheless, we advise against an increase in public expenditure that aims at stimulating the economy. Anyhow, growing public deficits, caused by cyclical movements, should be accepted. In order to increase employment labour market reforms become more urgent.
In East Germany, currently even a decline in gross national product cannot be excluded. After the first period of restructuring, which has been accompanied by structural problems, cyclical movements become more important. In addition, economic stagnation burdens labour markets. Nonetheless trying to stimulate the East German economy by government spending programmes does not seem to be a viable strategy. From the cyclical point of view they are not very efficient and concerning structural problems they are no solution.
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Charity engagement of german savings banks: extent and regional effects
Martin Wengler
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2001
Abstract
The german savings banks spent in in the year 2000 about 542 Mio. DM for charity projects. These funds influence the soft location factors in a positiv way and support the decrease of social disparities in economic peripheral regions.
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