Vertical and horizontal patterns of intra-industry trade between EU and candidate countries
Hubert Gabrisch
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 2,
2003
Abstract
Trade between the European Union (EU) and the Transition Economies (TE) is increasingly characterised by intra-industry trade. The decomposition of intra-industry trade into horizontal and vertical shares reveals predominantly vertical structures with decisively more quality advantages for the EU and less quality advantages for TE countries whenever trade has been liberalised. Empirical research on factors determining this structure in a EU-TE framework lags behind theoretical and empirical research on horizontal and vertical trade in other regions of the world. The main objective of this paper is therefore to contribute to the ongoing debate on EU-TE trade structures by offering an explanation of vertical trade. We utilise a cross-country approach in which relative wage differences, country size and income distribution play a leading role. We find first that relative differences in wages (per capita income) and country size explain intra-industry trade when trade is vertical and completely liberalised, and second that cross-country differences in income distribution play no explanatory role. We conclude that EU firms have been able to increase their product quality and to shift low-quality segments to TE countries. This may suggest a product-quality cycle prevalent in EU-TE trade.
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Empirical methods for analysising the risks of financial crises
Axel Brüggemann, Thomas Linne
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
he vulnerability against financial crises of EU candidate countries and other Central and East European countries is on the agenda of the Institute for Economic Research Halle. Research concentrates on the developing of effective early warning indicators and includes a strong orientation on quantitative methods. This volume presents selected methods for the analyse of financial fragility. The finding complete the signals approach, which is used by the IWH for routine checks of the risk potential of EU candidate an other countries of the region. The four studies presented here were written by the scientific staff of the IWH and by guest researchers. Their objective is to deepen insights into selected problems of financial fragility by using alternative methods.
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Regional economic effects of hosting the Olympic Games 2012 in Leipzig and its partner towns - An analysis of infrastructure investments
Peter Franz, Franz Kronthaler
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
Together with the cities of Chemnitz, Dresden, Halle and Riesa the East German city of Leipzig has applied as venue for the Olympic Games 2012. With its application Leipzig competed with four economically by far stronger West German cities (Stuttgart, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, Hamburg). On April 12, 2003 the National Olympic Committee had to elect the national candidate for 2012 out of this bundle of five applying cities and nominated Leipzig. With the organization of this big event the city of Leipzig and its partner cities expect a strong impulse for regional development. This study tries to estimate the potential economic effects of the planned investment with regard to infrastructure. Important results: Regarding directly the job effects connected with the investment and development of the infrastructure about 3,500 additional jobs are to be expected for a period of ten years. The infrastructure investment planned so far for the Olympiad will contribute only partially to eliminate important infrastructural bottlenecks in the region. Nevertheless the planned infrastructure facilities would have the effect that the new ‘olympia region Leipzig’ would remain attractive also after 2012 as venue for large sport events.
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Fallen risk potential for financial crises and improved perspectives for 2003/2004 in Central and Eastern Europe
Martina Kämpfe, Ibolya Mile
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 4,
2003
Abstract
Die aktuellen Berechnungen der Frühwarnindikatorenanalyse ergaben eine Verringerung des Risikopotenzials für Finanzkrisen für alle Volkswirtschaften Mittel- und Osteuropas mit Ausname von Ungarn. Hier hat sich der Konflikt zwischen einer expansiven Fiskalpolitik und einer restriktiven Geldpolitik zuletzt zugespitzt. Die Zunahme des Bruttoinlandsprodukts schwächte sich 2002 ab, lag aber mit Ausnahme von Polen und Tschechien bei über 3%. Dieser Anstieg wurde vorrangig von der Binnennachfrage und weniger vom Export getragen. Im Rahmen der Binnennachfrage nahm der private Konsum durchgängig zu, während der öffentliche Konsum und die Investitionstätigkeit eher uneinheitlich in der Region ausfielen. Für das Jahr 2003 ist insgesamt mit einer leichten Verstärkung des BIP-Zuwachses auf 3,4% in Mitteleuropa und dem Baltikum und 3,7% in Russland zu rechnen. Die Inflation wird sich im laufenden Jahr wegen des Ölpreisanstiegs in den meisten Ländern wieder etwas beschleunigen, im Jahr 2004 dagegen sinken. Im Jahr 2004 wird das Wirtschaftswachstum weiter zunehmen.
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A Projection of Future Productivity Growth Potentials in the Central and Eastern European Acceding Countries Manufacturing Sector
Johannes Stephan
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
The assessment of future economic development in EU accession candidates critically depends on future productivity growth. A projection of future productivity growth in manufacturing industry can make use of experience from other countries developments in the course of their integration into the European Union.
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Structurally Weak Regions as Locations for the Information and Communications Industry - The Example of Saxony-Anhalt
Rupert Kawka
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2003
Abstract
The article compares the IT-firms in Sachsen-Anhalt with the benchmark region Munich, as latter is regarded as the most advanced German area concerning this branch. It is shown that the firms in Sachsen-Anhalt are much smaller in terms of employees and returns than the companies in Munich, but they do not only act on regional markets, but also they have customers in the whole of Germany. Nevertheless, the firms in Munich supply international markets to a larger extent.
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Regional Differentiation in East Germany: The Economic Situation of East German Districts at the Border to Lower Saxony
Rupert Kawka, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2003
Abstract
The article deals with the question whether the counties in Sachsen-Anhalt being located along the border to Niedersachsen benefit from the vicinity to an economically stronger state so that regional development is better there than in other parts of Sachsen-Anhalt. It is shown that despite certain weaknesses concerning input factors, the output indicators show better results than the state´s average. Furthermore, the article focusses on the strong East-West commuter flows and on the preference of companies from Niedersachsen to invest in this region.
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New industries in Eastern Germany - The state of the development of modern biotechnologies in Saxony-Anhalt
Walter Komar
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 16,
2002
Abstract
East German regions are able to increase their economics and innovation potential, if they orient themselves on technologies, which release important growth effects. Such growth branch is the modern biotechnology. In this paper the development and the location factors of the biotechnology industry in Saxonia-Anhalt are analyzed and compared with the bio region Munich, which rank to among the best bio regions in Germany. The analysis shows that the development of the modern biotechnology in East German regions can be favoured, if the location factors are improved.
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Comparable types of regions in East and West Germany show disparities – East German urban agglomerations have difficulties!
Gerhard Heimpold, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 15,
2002
Abstract
A discussion about the reform of regional policy in Germany and in the EU is ongoing. Against this background the article investigates the regional disparities between similar types of regions in East and West Germany after reunification. The findings do not only show a general East-West gap of economic welfare and of their determinants but also a visible spatial differentiation. It shows that the East German agglomerations have disadvantages in the field of interregional competition. They are worse endowed with crucial growth determinants compared with their West German counterparts, whereas the East-West differences for urbanized regions (where the population density is medium-sized) and rural regions are smaller. The disadvantages stated suggest a stronger concentration of regional policy in favour of these agglomerated spaces targeted on improving the locational attractiveness and strengthening their function as driving forces of the economic catch-up process in East Germany.
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Higher risk potential for financial crises in Central and Eastern Europe: Countermeasures restrain revival of economic activity
Martina Kämpfe, Thomas Linne
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2002
Abstract
Das Risikopotenzial für eine Finanzkrise stieg zuletzt in einigen wichtigen mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern (Polen, Ungarn, Tschechien, Slowakei) deutlich an. Wirtschaftspolitischer Handlungsbedarf besteht vordringlich in einer Korrektur der derzeit noch expansiv angelegten Fiskalpolitik. Davon sind für das Jahr 2003 dämpfende Impulse für den konjunkturellen Aufschwung zu erwarten. Positive Impulse werden dagegen von einem Anziehen der westeuropäischen Konjunktur gegen Ende des Jahres 2002 für die Exporte der Unternehmen in Mittel- und Osteuropa ausgehen. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Wachstumsrate wird im Jahr 2003 mit rund 4% etwas höher ausfallen als im laufenden Jahr. Dafür ist im Wesentlichen die russische Wirtschaft verantwortlich, die ebenfalls von der westeuropäischen Konjunkturbelebung profitieren wird. Im Jahr 2002 wird das Wachstum in der Region mit 3% deutlich geringer ausfallen als noch im Jahr zuvor.
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