Konjunktur aktuell: Deutschland weiter im Abschwung
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 3,
2023
Abstract
Die Weltwirtschaft verliert im Herbst 2023 weiter an Schwung. Die Produktion im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe und der globale Warenhandel stagnieren, gestiegene Leitzinsen verschlechtern das Investitionsklima. Die restriktive Wirtschaftspolitik drückt vor allem die europäische Konjunktur, welche zusätzlich von der Unsicherheit durch den russischen Angriffskrieg belastet wird. In Deutschland belasten die hohe Inflation, gestiegene Zinsen, eine schwache Auslandsnachfrage und Verunsicherung unter privaten Haushalten und Unternehmen die Wirtschaft. Die konjunkturellen Risiken sind für die Bauwirtschaft besonders hoch. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt 2023 um 0,5% zurückgehen, für das kommende Jahr wird ein Zuwachs von 0,9% prognostiziert.
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Mentoring Helps Highly Disadvantaged Adolescents
Sven Resnjanskij, Jens Ruhose, Katharina Wedel, Simon Wiederhold, Ludger Woessmann
IEB Report "Education Policy: Quality and Equality of Opportunity",
2023
Abstract
In this report, we discuss the results of our randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a nationwide mentoring program designed to improve the labor-market prospects of disadvantaged adolescents in Germany (Resnjanskij et al., 2023). The study is motivated by the high persistence of inequality across generations present even in countries with comprehensive social welfare systems (Alvaredo et al., 2018). In particular, the school-to-work transition is a decisive moment that determines the differences in later labor-market outcomes of young adolescents.
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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico
Stefan Leopold, Jens Ruhose, Simon Wiederhold
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2023
Abstract
The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.
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Durch eine Ausbildung erworbene Kompetenzen zahlen sich auf dem Arbeitsmarkt aus
Christina Langer, Jakob Peiffer, Simon Wiederhold
ifo Schnelldienst,
No. 7,
2023
Abstract
Ein Großteil der Jugendlichen in Deutschland beginnt nach der Schule eine duale Berufsausbildung. Die Inhalte dieser Berufsausbildungen und die dort vermittelten Kompetenzen sind bundesweit einheitlich in Ausbildungsplänen geregelt. Wir erfassen insgesamt mehr als 13 000 verschiedene Kompetenzen aus diesen Ausbildungsplänen, sowie deren genaue Lerndauer. Vor allem kognitive, soziale und digitale Kompetenzen, die während der Ausbildung erworben wurden, zahlen sich auf dem Arbeitsmarkt aus. Dabei steigen die Einkommenserträge höherer Kompetenzen über die Karriere hinweg an. Das zeigt unsere Analyse der Ausbildungsplandaten kombiniert mit administrativen Lohndaten des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) über einen Zeitraum von insgesamt 30 Jahren. Außerdem dokumentieren wir steigende Erträge von digitalen und sozialen Kompetenzen seit den 1990er Jahren, während die Erträge von kognitiven Kompetenzen nur geringfügig zugenommen haben.
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Where STEM Graduates Stem From? The Intergenerational Transmission of Comparative Skill Advantages
Eric A. Hanushek, Babs Jacobs, Guido Schwerdt, Rolf van der Velden, Stan Vermeulen, Simon Wiederhold
VoxEU,
Juni
2023
Abstract
The standard economic model of occupational choice following a basic Roy model emphasizes individual selection and comparative advantage, but the sources of comparative advantage are not well understood. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations and permits analysis of the intergenerational transmission of comparative skill advantages. Exploiting within-family between-subject variation in skills, we show that comparative advantages in math of parents are significantly linked to those of their children. A causal interpretation follows from a novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parent skill advantages due to their teacher and classroom peer quality. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children’s choices of STEM fields.
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Gender Pay Gap in American CFOs: Theory and Evidence
Bill Francis, Iftekhar Hasan, Gayane Hovakimian, Zenu Sharma
Journal of Corporate Finance,
June
2023
Abstract
Studies document persistent unexplained gender-based wage gap in labor markets. At the executive level, where skill and education are similar, career interruptions and differences in risk preferences primarily explain the extant gender-based pay gap. This study focuses on CFO compensation contracts of Execucomp firms (1992–2020) and finds no gender-based pay gap. This paper offers several explanations for this phenomenon, such as novel evidence on the risk preferences of females with financial expertise and changes in the social and regulatory climate.
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Where Do STEM Graduates Stem from? The Intergenerational Transmission of Comparative Skill Advantages
Eric A. Hanushek, Babs Jacobs, Guido Schwerdt, Rolf van der Velden, Stan Vermeulen, Simon Wiederhold
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2023
Abstract
The standard economic model of occupational choice following a basic Roy model emphasizes individual selection and comparative advantage, but the sources of comparative advantage are not well understood. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations and permits analysis of the intergenerational transmission of comparative skill advantages. Exploiting within-family between-subject variation in skills, we show that comparative advantages in math of parents are significantly linked to those of their children. A causal interpretation follows from a novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parent skill advantages due to their teacher and classroom peer quality. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children’s choices of STEM fields.
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Skill Mismatch and the Costs of Job Displacement
Frank Neffke, Ljubica Nedelkoska, Simon Wiederhold
Abstract
Establishment closures have lasting negative consequences for the workers they displace from their jobs. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience after job displacement. Developing new measures of occupational skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze the work histories of individuals in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate differencein- differences models, using a sample of displaced workers who are matched to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupational change eleven-fold. Moreover, the magnitude of postdisplacement earnings losses strongly depends on the type of skill mismatch that workers experience in such job switches. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the counterfactual earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings. We show that these differences can be attributed to differences in mismatch after displacement, and not to intrinsic differences between workers making different post-displacement career choices.
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