Business Cycle Volatility in Germany
Claudia M. Buch, J. Doepke, C. Pierdzioch
German Economic Review,
2004
Abstract
Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. The causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural changes in output volatility in Germany can be detected. We report evidence that output volatility has declined in Germany. It is difficult to answer the question whether this decline in output volatility reflects good economic and monetary policy or merely ‘good luck’.
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Konsolidierung der Biotechnologiebranche: Kernbildung erfolgreicher Unternehmen
Walter Komar
Zeitschrift für Biopolitik,
No. 4,
2004
Abstract
Mittlerweile hat sich mit der Branche der modernen Biotechnologie weltweit ein neuer Wirtschaftszweig herausgebildet, vom dem ein hoher Beitrag zum Wirtschaftswachstum erwartet wird. Dies gilt auch für Deutschland. Allerdings haben die Hoffungen einen Dämpfer bekommen. Der Biotechnologiesektor befindet sich in einer Konsolidierungsphase. Nach den vorgelegten Untersuchungsergebnissen spricht einiges dafür, dass sich im Zuge der Konsolidierung ein erfolgreicher Kern von Unternehmen herausbildet, der weiterhin prosperiert und die künftige Entwicklung der Branche tragen kann.
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The effects of demographic changes on the level and structure of private consumption - a forecast for Germany until 2050 -
Harald Lehmann
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 195,
2004
Abstract
This thesis analyzes the impact of different demografic scenarios on level and composition of private consumption in Germany. The analysis is based on the current household budget survey (Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe 1998) whose datas are adapted to the concepts of national accounting. Therefore households have to be defined by demografic aspects to investigate their consumption behavior. In the next step this will be used to forecast the effects of an aging population on private consumption by utilize a shift share analysis. The results lay open that the demografic impact is minor compared to economic factors influencing the composition of private consumption. This holds also in regard to the development of the absolute level of private consumption.
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East German tourist industry - a branch with growth potential
Siegfried Beer
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2004
Abstract
Since 1990 capital stock in East German accommodation industry has been remarkably extended and modernized. With about half a million beds in 2003, the number of available guest beds has doubled since 1992. Although tourism intensity (overnight stays per 1000 inhabitants) has also grown considerably in the same period – namely onto a 2.5 times higher level than in 1992 – the percentage of taken beds is, except in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, not yet satisfying. An important task is therefore to improve the basically good opportunities even more in order to animate the economic growth and to create new jobs. Suitable economic settings need to be formed for this.
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Growth in biotechnology industry has come to a halt - is the industry still the great white hope?
Walter Komar
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2004
Abstract
With the modern biotechnology a new industry has appeared worldwide. In Germany, the boom of the foundation of new companies started about 1996/1997. Meanwhile the growth of the biotechnology sector has come to a hold. The biotechnology industry experiences a phase of the consolidation. This paper shows that due to consolidation a core of successful companies will develop, which continue to grow and can support the development of the new industry. Also economically less advanced regions have a chance in the modern biotechnology.
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Current Trends: Structural change in East German industry is still substantial
Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2004
Abstract
Die Intensität des Strukturwandels im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe Ostdeutschlands (berechnet auf Basis von 241 Wirtschaftszweigen) hat sich seit Beginn der neunziger Jahre deutlich verringert, liegt aber immer noch höher als in Westdeutschland. Dahinter verbirgt sich, wie in diesem Heft noch genauer gezeigt wird, die zunehmende Modernisierung in der ostdeutschen Industrie: Branchen der Spitzentechnologie und (wenngleich weniger deutlich) der höherwertigen Technologie gewinnen an Bedeutung, während eher traditionelle Branchen an Gewicht verlieren. Insoweit ist die hohe Intensität des Strukturwandels, auch wenn sie für die Betroffenen Anpassungslasten auferlegen mag, etwas Positives.
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The development of R&D intensive industries in East Germany makes progress
Siegfried Beer
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 2,
2004
Abstract
For East Germany – also called the New German Länder – it is very important to enlarge human capital intensive production. Starting from this consideration, the empirical study investigates the development of research & development (R&D) intensive industries for the years 1998 to 2002 whereby the different technology classes are also taken into account. The study is based on official statistics for producer goods. The analysis shows that the production of goods from R&D intensive industries increased stronger than the total production in East Germany’s manufacturing industry (8.5% versus 5.9%). Especially the increased production of high-technology goods contributed to this development. Most important branches thereby are electronic industry and aerospace industry. Medium-tech industries were less important for the above described trend. Overall, the development indicates an improvement of the technological capability of East Germany’s manufacturing industry. Compared to West Germany, however, the production of goods from medium-tech industries is underrepresented. Further more, it is only one group of products in East Germany’s industry that plays a dominant role within Germany as a whole. This is electronic devices.
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EU Accession Countries’ Specialisation Patterns in Foreign Trade and Domestic Production - What can we infer for catch-up prospects?
Johannes Stephan
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 184,
2003
Abstract
This paper supplements prior analysis on ‘patterns and prospects’ (Stephan, 2003) in which prospects for the speed of future productivity growth were assessed by looking at the specialisation patterns in domestic production. This analysis adds the foreign trade sphere to the results generated in the prior analysis. The refined results are broadly in line with the results from the original analysis, indicating the robustness of our methods applied in either analysis. The most prominent results pertain to Slovenia and the Slovak Republic. Those two countries appear to be best suited for swift productivity catch-up from the viewpoint of sectoral specialisation. Poland and Estonia exhibit the lowest potentials. Only for the case of Poland would results suggest bleak prospects.
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Evolving Structural Patterns in the Enlarging European Division of Labour: Sectoral and Branch Specialisation and the Potentials for Closing the Productivity Gap
Johannes Stephan
IWH-Sonderhefte,
No. 5,
2003
Abstract
This report summarises the results generated in empirical analysis within a larger EU 5th FP RTD-project on the determinants of productivity gaps between the current EU-15 and accession states in Central East Europe. The focus of research in this part of the project is on sectoral specialisation patterns emerging as a result of intensifying integration between the current EU and a selection of six newly acceding economies, namely Estonia, Poland, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Slovenia. The research-leading question is concerned with the role played by the respective specialisation patterns for (i) the explanation of observed productivity gaps and for (ii) the projection of future potentials of productivity growth in Central East Europe.
For the aggregated level, analysis determines the share of national productivity gaps accountable to acceding countries’ particular sectoral patterns, and their role for aggregate productivity growth: in Poland, the Slovak Republic and Hungary, sectoral shares of national productivity gaps are considerable and might evolve into a ‘barrier’ to productivity catch-up.Moreover, past productivity growth was dominated by a downward adjustment in employment rather than structural change. With the industrial sector of manufacturing having been identified as the main source of national productivity gaps and growth, the subsequent analysis focuses on the role of industrial specialisation patterns and develops an empirical model to project future productivity growth potentials. Each chapter closes with some policy conclusions.
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Opportunities and Risks for Regional Development in Former East German Brown Coal Mining Areas: The Case of the “Geiseltal” Mining Area in Saxony-Anhalt
Peter Franz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 11,
2003
Abstract
The rehabilitation of former brown coal open mining locations represents an important section of the economic and ecological restructuring process in East Germany, taking place since 1990. The recent progress in rehabilitation has led to large amounts of newly disposable space and thus expands the opportunities for regional development, especially with respect to tourism. But the possible positive effects are at risk because of diverse obstacles. In the case of the former open mining location of the “Geiseltal” in the south of Saxony-Anhalt such obstacles show up in form of a strong identification of the residents with the tradition of mining industry, in form of the expansive interests of nature protection organizations, and in form of inadequate organisational structures of the local public administration. In the case of a tourism-oriented development strategy risks arise concerning the actual duration of the remaining recultivation process and concerning the competition with locations with similar development targets.
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