The Role of Investment Banking for the German Economy: Final Report for Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt/Main
Michael Schröder, M. Borell, Reint E. Gropp, Z. Iliewa, L. Jaroszek, G. Lang, S. Schmidt, K. Trela
ZEW-Dokumentationen, Nr. 12-01,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
The aim of this study is to assess the contributions of investment banking to the economy with a particular focus on the German economy. To this end we analyse both the economic benefits and the costs stemming from investment banking.
The study focuses on investment banks as this part of banking is particularly relevant for financing companies as well as the development and use of specific products to support the needs of private and professional clients. The assessment of benefits and costs of investment banking has been conducted from a European perspective. Nevertheless there is a focus on the German economy to allow a more detailed analysis of certain aspects as for example the use of derivatives by German companies, the success of M&As in Germany or the effect of securitization on loan supply and GDP in Germany. For comparison purposes other European countries and also the U.S. have been taken into account.
The last financial crisis has shown the negative impacts of banks on the financial system and the whole economy. In a study on the contribution of investment banks to systemic risk we quantify the negative side of the investment banking business.
In the last part of the study we assess how the effects of regulatory changes on investment banking. All important changes in banking and capital market regulation are taken into account such as Basel III, additional capital requirements for systemically important financial institutions, regulation of OTC derivatives and specific taxes.
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A Model for the Valuation of Carbon Price Risk
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Antes, R.; Hansjürgen, B.; Letmathe, P.; Pickl, S. (Hrsg.), Emissions Trading - Institutional Design, Decision Making and Corporate Strategies (Second Edition),
2011
Abstract
Modeling the price risk of CO2 emission allowances is an important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to emissions trading. In this paper, a pricing model is developed which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices. We assume that the certificate price is determined by the expected marginal CO2 abatement costs in the current trade period as well as by the long-term marginal abatement costs. The price risk is modeled on the basis of a mean reversion process. Due to uncertainties about the future state of the environment, we suppose that within one trade period erratic changes in the expected marginal abatement costs may occur leading to shifts in the price level. In addition to the parameter estimation, it is also an objective of this work to modify the mean reversion process so that such abrupt changes in the expected reversion level can be displayed. Because of the possibility of transferring spare allowances to a subsequent period we take into account the fact that the expected long run marginal abatement costs act as a lower limit for the price in the trading period.
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Old Age Poverty and Satisfaction with Living Conditions in East and West Germany, 1995 and 2009
L. J. Zhu, Anja Weißenborn, Herbert S. Buscher
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
The current contribution presents poverty indicators for West and East Germany for the years 1995 and 2009. The analysis is based on the two corresponding waves of the GSOEP. We only consider households with at least one senior citizen aged 65 or above. Furthermore, we distinguish between male and female pensioners. In the first part the weighted equivalized household income is calculated as well as various statistical measures such as the 20%- and 80%-percentile, the 80/20-ratio and the 90/10-ratio of the income distribution of senior citizen households. In an additional step we also present and discuss the main sources of income such households have. In the second part of the contribution we focus on social indicators with respect to the satisfaction with income and the current living conditions as well as the expected situation in five years. As the results show, old age poverty has increased in both parts in Germany with East German women being an exception. With respect to the future, most elder people look optimistically into the future.
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Determinants of the Efficiency of Regional Innovation Systems
Michael Fritsch, Viktor Slavtchev
Regional Studies,
No. 7,
2011
Abstract
Determinants of the efficiency of regional innovation systems, Regional Studies. This paper analyses differences in the efficiency of regional innovation systems. Alternative measures for the efficiency of regional innovation systems based on the concept of a knowledge production function are discussed. The empirical findings suggest that spillovers from within the private sector as well as from universities and other public research institutions have a positive effect on the efficiency of private sector research and development. It is particularly the intensity of interactions between private and public sector research and development that increases the efficiency. It is found that regions dominated by large establishments tend to be less efficient than regions with a lower average establishment size.
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Effects of Local Public Investment into Infrastructure for Tourism: The Example of Saxony
Albrecht Kauffmann
Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
The mass of investments into infrastructure for tourism in the so-called “New States” (Neue Länder) of the Federal Republic of Germany after 1990 was huge. They were aimed to the maintenance and recovery, respectively of competitiveness of traditional destinations, as well as to promote service-oriented structural change in industrial wastelands. A big part of these investments was supported by funds of the so called “Joint Task for Improving the Regional Economic Structure”. We analyse the effects of local public investment into infrastructure for tourism supported by investment grants on the local employment in accommodation and food service activities in the state of Saxony. The results provide evidence for correlations between special types of investment in the time period 2000–2007 and the development of employment in hospitality industry. However, this is subject to some requirements, such as the existence of complementary factors, or an existing regional touristic tradition as well.
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School Closures and Population Decline in Saxony-Anhalt
Walter Hyll, Lutz Schneider
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2011
Abstract
In rural areas school closures are often linked to a decline in population. Do school closures stimulate enhanced emigration? This paper analyses whether family migration is affected by the existence of primary schools. We conduct an empirical study for the East German province Saxony-Anhalt for the period 1991 to 2008. We find that primary schools significantly affect migration behaviour. After school closure municipalities experience a decrease in in-migration. Unexpectedly, controlling for cohort size, unobserved heterogeneity as well as for neighbourhood effects yields higher out-migration prior to school closure. Because the in-migration and the out-migration are of the same magnitude, in sum school closures have no observable impact on net-migration.
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Retirement Income Systems in Middle and Eastern Europe: Between Change and Continuity
Martina Kämpfe, Ingmar Kumpmann
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2011
Abstract
During the process of transition the Middle and Eastern European Countries introduced pension insurance plans on a Pay-as-you-go-basis following the Western European pattern. Rising financing problems caused by increasing unemployment as well as the demographic change led to the awareness of the need of reform. Hence in most of these countries mandatory funded pension schemes were established. This way proved to be costly since the actual active generation has to simultaneously finance both the new capital stock and the pensions of today’s retirees. The financial crisis revealed the vulnerability of funded pension plans. On this background especially Poland and Hungary partly roll back their reforms. In the Czech Republic whose pension plans were not harmed by the financial crisis the government plans to support private pension schemes increasingly. Bearing in mind the recent experiences it is recommendable to build up funded pension schemes very carefully and slowly. A further weakening of pension plans on a Pay-as-you-go basis is not advisable.
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Analyse der Patentaktivitäten in den öffentlichen Wissenschaftseinrichtungen des Freistaates Sachsen im Auftrag des Sächsischen Staatsministeriums für Wissenschaft und Kunst (SMWK)
Iciar Dominguez Lacasa, Katja Wilde
One-off Publications,
2010
Abstract
This study analyses patenting activities by public research organizations (PROs) in the Free State of Saxony in the period 2002-2007 in order to shed some light on the strategies of PROs for industrial exploitation of scientific research results as well as on PROs-industry interaction. The analysis is based on published patent applications at the German Patent and Trademark Office (DPMA) in the period 2002-2007. The study shows that in the period of analysis (2002-2007) the number of patent applications by PROs in Saxony has risen almost continuously. Institutes of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft and the Technical University of Dresden have played a major role in this development. The results for PROs in Saxony are compared with patenting by PROs located in the states of Thuringia, Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia. Overall, the comparative analysis shows positive results for the industrial exploitation of scientific research results by PROs in Saxony. In what concerns the networking of PROs with private companies through co-patenting, there are no significant differences between the PROs of the four states considered. The results suggest that PROs in Saxony could further improve their performance in PROs-industry interaction. These results should however be interpreted with caution since the underlying patent statistics (co-patenting) do not capture all forms of PROs-industry interaction for the industrial exploitation of research results.
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Extreme Risks in Financial Markets and Monetary Policies of the Euro-candidates
Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski
Comparative Economic Studies,
No. 4,
2011
Abstract
This study investigates extreme tail risks in financial markets of the euro-candidate countries and their implications for monetary policies. Our empirical tests show the prevalence of extreme risks in the conditional volatility series of selected financial variables, that is, interbank rates, equity market indexes and exchange rates. We argue that excessive instability of key target and instrument variables should be mitigated by monetary policies. Central banks in these countries will be well-advised to use both standard and unorthodox (discretionary) tools of monetary policy while steering their economies out of the financial crisis and through the euro-convergence process.
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