The Great Risk Shift? Income Volatility in an International Perspective
Claudia M. Buch
CESifo Working Paper No. 2465,
2008
Abstract
Weakening bargaining power of unions and the increasing integration of the world economy may affect the volatility of capital and labor incomes. This paper documents and explains changes in income volatility. Using a theoretical framework which builds distribution risk into a real business cycle model, hypotheses on the determinants of the relative volatility of capital and labor are derived. The model is tested using industry-level data. The data cover 11 industrialized countries, 22 manufacturing and services industries, and a maximum of 35 years. The paper has four main findings. First, the unconditional volatility of labor and capital incomes has declined, reflecting the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Second, the idiosyncratic component of income volatility has hardly changed over time. Third, crosssectional heterogeneity in the evolution of relative income volatilities is substantial. If anything, the labor incomes of high- and low-skilled workers have become more volatile in relative terms. Fourth, income volatility is related to variables measuring the bargaining power of workers. Trade openness has no significant impact.
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An Assessment of Bank Merger Success in Germany
Michael Koetter
German Economic Review,
No. 2,
2008
Abstract
German banks have experienced a merger wave since the early 1990s. However, the success of bank mergers remains a continuous matter of debate.This paper suggests a taxonomy to evaluate post-merger performance on the basis of cost and profit efficiency (CE and PE). I identify successful mergers as those that fulfill simultaneously two criteria. First, merged institutes must exhibit efficiency levels above the average of non-merging banks. Second, banks must exhibit efficiency changes between merger and evaluation year above efficiency changes of non-merging banks. I assess the post-merger performance up to 11 years after the mergers and relate it to the transfer of skills, the adequacy to merge distressed banks and the role of geographical distance. Roughly every second merger is a success in terms of either CE or PE. The margin of success in terms of CE is narrow, as efficiency differentials between merging and non-merging banks are around 1 and 2 percentage points. PE performance is slightly larger. More importantly, mergers boost in particular the change in PE, thus indicating persistent improvements of merging banks to improve the ability to generate profits.
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New Limits of Municipal Economic Activity: Expansion versus Reduction?
Peter Haug
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2007
Abstract
On October 11th and 12th 2007, the department of urban economics of the Halle Institute for Economic Research organized a conference on local governments’ entrepreneurial activities. The main target of this second conference after the first one in 2005 was to analyze the spatial and functional boundaries of municipal economic activities. The participants came from various fields of science, local public administrations, municipal enterprises, associations and included politicians and others interested in the topic. The presentations covered a broad variety of subjects. On the first conference day, the speakers dealt with the partly controversial attitude of different disciplines such as law, economics, public business administration or sociology towards the local public economy. Other presenters focused on selected municipal services (public transportation, housing).
The second day was dedicated to the topics restrictions on municipal economic activities in Southern Europe, regional effects of municipal enterprises and employee protection in case of privatization. The conference was closed by a panel discussion with distinguished representatives from politics, science and management about the future role of municipal enterprises.
The presentations and discussions showed that the times are changing for the local public sector. In addition, the participants rejected an unrestricted extension of markets or business fields of municipal enterprises as well as the complete privatization of municipal services.
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The Impact of Competition on Bank Orientation
Hans Degryse, Steven Ongena
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
No. 3,
2007
Abstract
How do banks react to increased competition? Recent banking theory significantly disagrees regarding the impact of competition on bank orientation—i.e., the choice of relationship-based versus transactional banking. We empirically investigate the impact of interbank competition on bank branch orientation. We employ a unique data set containing detailed information on bank–firm relationships. We find that bank branches facing stiff local competition engage considerably more in relationship-based lending. Our results illustrate that competition and relationships are not necessarily inimical.
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Schätzunsicherheit oder Korrelation, Welche Risikokomponente sollten Unternehmen bei der Bewertung von Kreditportfoliorisiken wann berücksichtigen?
Henry Dannenberg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 5,
2007
Abstract
The use of probability of default estimates to assess the risks of a credit portfolio should not ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter can be quantified by confidence intervals. But assumptions about dependencies of these intervals are inconsistent with assumptions of conventional credit portfolio models. Based on simulation studies this paper shows, that a model which include estimation uncertainty but ignore default correlation might estimate the real credit risk more correctly than a model that implicates default correlation but ignore estimation uncertainty. The latter is a trait of conventional credit portfolio models. In this paper quantifying of estimation uncertainty based on the idea of confidence intervals and the underlying probability distributions of these intervals.
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Where enterprises lead, people follow? Links between migration and FDI in Germany
Claudia M. Buch, J. Kleinert, Farid Toubal
European Economic Review,
No. 8,
2006
Abstract
Standard neoclassical models of economic integration are based on the assumptions that capital and labor are substitutes and that the geography of factor market integration does not matter. Yet, these two assumptions are violated if agglomeration forces among factors from specific source countries are at work. Agglomeration implies that factors behave as complements and that the country of origin matters. This paper analyzes agglomeration between capital and labor empirically. We use state-level German data to answer the question whether and how migration and foreign direct investment (FDI) are linked. Stocks of inward FDI and of immigrants have similar determinants, and the geography of factor market integration matters. There are higher stocks of inward FDI in German states hosting a large foreign population from the same country of origin. This agglomeration effect is confined to higher-income source countries.
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Fiscal economy potentials of a county structure reform in Saxony-Anhalt
Simone Scharfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2006
Abstract
In view of the foreseeable demographic and finance-political developments the public house holds of Eastern Germany are under considerable strain to consolidate. This applies particularly to Saxony-Anhalt and there especially to local authorities. In 2003 the municipal expenses level (running material expenses and personnel expenses) of counties and communities in Saxony-Anhalt amounted 1,015 Euro per inhabitant and was clearly higher than the other East German states. Beyond the means of economisation through the efficient application of public funds, considerations are given to the potentials of country structure reforms. In the last legislative period, the CDU/FDP government already established the amalgamation of 24 counties to eleven new ones with the bill of 11.11.2005. The SPD - as an oppositional party at that time - submitted a proposal for an even further-reaching structural change with a concentration to five counties. This article comprises an estimation of the fiscal economisation potentials of both versions. In the first step, the (long term accessible) county expense levels of Saxony-Anhalt within the scope of the existing structure of a county is determined with the help of a Benchmarkanalysis. These results are then compared with expected expense levels of a reformed county structure which leads to the saving effect of the respective county reform. In the result of the analysis it appears that the suggestion of the SPD to the county structure reform allows to expect clearly higher saving effects than the suggestion of the former CDU/FDP government, a strong meaning of the already enforced community administrative reform is imputable.
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Growth oriented reorientation of the „Solidarpakt II”
Joachim Ragnitz
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2006
Abstract
A suggestion of a reformed usage proof for the “Sonderbedarfs-Bundesergänzungszuweisungen” according to §11.3 FAG – An expertise on behalf of the ministry of finance, Thuringia
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Wachstumsorientierte Neuausrichtung des Solidarpaktes II - Langfassung
Joachim Ragnitz
One-off Publications,
No. 1,
2006
Abstract
Die ostdeutschen Länder sind gemäß §11 Absatz 3 Finanzausgleichsgesetz (FAG) verpflichtet, in sogenannten Fortschrittsberichten „Aufbau Ost“ jährlich über die Verwendung der ihnen zur Verfügung gestellten Mittel aus dem Solidarpakt II zu berichten. Für die praktische Umsetzung haben sich Bund und Länder auf ein Berechnungsschema geeinigt, das die investive Verwendung der Sonderbedarfsbundesergänzungszuweisungen (SoBEZ) in den Mittelpunkt rückt. Hintergedanke dabei ist die die Solidarpakt-Verhandlungen prägende Vorstellung, daß die Schwäche der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft vor allem auf einer unzureichenden Infrastrukturausstattung beruht. Tatsächlich sind die Ursachen für die Wachstumsschwäche der neuen Länder aber weitaus vielfältiger. Das IWH hat deshalb auf Basis wachstumstheoretischer Überlegungen ein alternatives Rechenschema für den SoBEZ-Nachweis entwickelt, das die „Wachstumsrelevanz“ der öffentlichen Ausgaben in den Vordergrund stellt und deshalb eher den Intentionen des Solidarpaktes II entspricht. Neben den Investitionen in die wirtschaftsnahe Infrastruktur werden dabei u. a. auch Ausgaben für die Forschung und die (weiterführende) Humankapitalbildung einbezogen. Anrechenbar sind diese Ausgaben allerdings nur, wenn sie nicht durch Kreditaufnahme oder Zuweisungen von Dritten finanziert werden und wenn sie über ein normalerweise aus eigenen Mitteln zu tragendes Niveau hinausgehen. Die Argumentation folgt dabei allein ökonomischen Kriterien und ist unabhängig von den tatsächlichen quantitativen Auswirkungen für den Verwendungsnachweis im Solidarpakt II.
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Are European Equity Style Indexes Mean Reverting? Testing the Validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis
Marian Berneburg
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 193,
2004
Abstract
The article tests for a random walk in European equity style indexes. After briefly
introducing the efficient market hypothesis, equity styles in general and the used
statistical techniques (Variance Ratio Test and modified Rescaled Range Test) it is
shown that a random walk in European equity style indexes cannot be rejected. At least in the period since the mid 70s, for which this research has been conducted, the weak form efficient market hypothesis seems to hold.
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