Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story
Makram El-Shagi, Gregor von Schweinitz
Abstract
Due to the recent financial crisis, the interest in econometric models that allow to incorporate binary variables (such as the occurrence of a crisis) experienced a huge surge. This paper evaluates the performance of the Qual VAR, i.e. a VAR model including a latent variable that governs the behavior of an observable binary variable. While we find that the Qual VAR performs reasonably well in forecasting (outperforming a probit benchmark), there are substantial identification problems. Therefore, when the economic interpretation of the dynamic behavior of the latent variable and the chain of causality matter, the Qual VAR is inadvisable.
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The Performance of Short-term Forecasts of the German Economy before and during the 2008/2009 Recession
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
International Journal of Forecasting,
No. 2,
2012
Abstract
The paper analyzes the forecasting performance of leading indicators for industrial production in Germany. We focus on single and pooled leading indicator models both before and during the financial crisis. Pairwise and joint significant tests are used to evaluate single indicator models as well as forecast combination methods. In addition, we investigate the stability of forecasting models during the most recent financial crisis.
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Why are East Germans not More Mobile? Analyzing the Impact of Social Ties on Regional Migration
Peter Bönisch, Lutz Schneider
Abstract
Individuals’ preferences in transition regions are still shaped by the former communist system. We test this ‘Communism legacy’ hypothesis by examining the impact of acculturation in a communist regime on social network participation and, as a consequence, on preferences for spatial mobility. We focus on the paradigmatic case of East Germany where mobility intentions seem to be substantially weaker than in the western part. Applying an IV ordered probit approach we firstly find that East German people acculturated in a Communist system are more invested in locally bounded informal social capital than West Germans. Secondly, we confirm that membership in such locally bounded social networks reduces the intention to move away. Thirdly, after controlling for the social network effect the mobility gap between East and West substantially reduces. Low spatial mobility of the eastern population, we conclude, is to an important part attributable to a social capital endowment characteristic to post-communist economies.
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Does Temporary Employment Affect the Work-related Training of Low-skilled Employees?
Eva Reinowski, Jan Sauermann
Zeitschrift für Arbeitsmarktforschung,
No. 4,
2008
Abstract
Using the German Mikrozensus 2004, this paper analyses the effect of temporary contracts on work-related training for low-skilled workers. To take systematic differences between temporary and permanent employees into account, we estimate a bivariate probit model for whether fixed-term employment affects participation in work-related training. We conclude that holding a temporary contract does not have systematic disadvantages in access to further training.
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Does temporary employment influence the workrelated training of low-skilled employees?
Eva Reinowski, Jan Sauermann
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 2,
2008
Abstract
Fixed-term contracts are considerd as one of the most popular instruments of labour market flexibility. Although they provide new labour market options for employer and employees, it is argued that they may lead to decreasing investments in human capital. From the theoretical point of view it is not clear wheter a fixed-term contract is a drawback for the participation in work-related training. The paper deals with the influence of fixed-term contracts on work-related training especially for low-skilled workers. Based on the Micro Census data of 2004, we estimate a bivariate probit model for the probability of fixed-term employment and participating in work-related training. This model enables us to control for selection effects that may arise from unobservable factors. From the estimation results we can conclude that holding a fixed-term contract does not mean a systematical disadvantage for the training probability of low-skilled employees.
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Slippery Slopes of Stress: Ordered Failure Events in German Banking
Thomas Kick, Michael Koetter
Journal of Financial Stability,
No. 2,
2007
Abstract
Outright bank failures without prior indication of financial instability are very rare. In fact, banks can be regarded as troubled to varying degrees before outright closure. But failure studies usually neglect the ordinal nature of bank distress. We distinguish four different kinds of increasingly severe events on the basis of the distress database of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Only the worst distress event entails a bank to exit the market. Since the four categories of hazard functions are not proportional, we specify a generalized ordered logit model to estimate respective probabilities of distress simultaneously. We find that the likelihood of ordered distress events changes differently in response to given changes in the financial profiles of banks. Consequently, bank failure studies should account more explicitly for the different shades of distress. This allows an assessment of the relative importance of financial profile components for different degrees of bank distress.
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Who Invests in Training if Contracts are Temporary? - Empirical Evidence for Germany Using Selection Correction
Jan Sauermann
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 14,
2006
Abstract
This study deals with the effect of fixed-term contracts on work-related training. Though previous studies found a negative effect of fixed-term contracts on the participation in training, from the theoretical point of view it is not clear whether workers with fixed-term contracts receive less or more training, compared to workers with permanent contracts. In addition to the existing strand of literature, we especially distinguish between employer- and employee-financed training in order to allow for diverging investment patterns of worker and firm. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we estimate a bivariate probit model to control for selection effects that may arise from unobservable factors, affecting both participation in training and holding fixed-term contracts. Finding negative effects for employer-sponsored, as well as for employee-sponsored training, leads us to conclude that workers with fixed-term contracts do not compensate for lower firm investments.
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Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility
Reint E. Gropp, Jukka M. Vesala, Giuseppe Vulpes
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
No. 2,
2006
Abstract
We analyse the ability of the distance to default and subordinated bond spreads to signal bank fragility in a sample of EU banks. We find leading properties for both indicators. The distance to default exhibits lead times of 6-18 months. Spreads have signal value close to problems only. We also find that implicit safety nets weaken the predictive power of spreads. Further, the results suggest complementarity between both indicators. We also examine the interaction of the indicators with other information and find that their additional information content may be small but not insignificant. The results suggest that market indicators reduce type II errors relative to predictions based on accounting information only.
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A note on GMM-estimation of probit models with endogenous regressors
Joachim Wilde
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2005
Abstract
Dagenais (1999) and Lucchetti (2002) have demonstrated that the naive GMM estimator of Grogger (1990) for the probit model with an endogenous regressor is not consistent. This paper completes their discussion by explaining the reason for the inconsistency and presenting a natural solution. Furthermore, the resulting GMM estimator is analyzed in a Monte-Carlo simulation and compared with alternative estimators.
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