Credit Union Membership and Use of Internet Banking Technology
H. Evren Damar, Lynn Hunnicutt
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy,
No. 1,
2010
Abstract
What makes households use internet banking? Bank adoption of internet banking technology has been widely considered, but relatively few papers address consumer usage of internet banking. This study looks at the determinants of internet banking usage among credit union members in the Western United States. We use call report data from the National Credit Union Administration to calculate the rate of internet banking usage among a credit union's members, which allows us to examine whether variations in institutional characteristics, local economic conditions and membership criteria have an impact on the internet usage rates among members of different credit unions. We find that members in credit unions that were early internet technology adopters have higher usage rates, and that the contribution to usage rates varies among types of online services offered.
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Transmission of Nominal Exchange Rate Changes to Export Prices and Trade Flows and Implications for Exchange Rate Policy
Mathias Hoffmann, Oliver Holtemöller
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
2010
Abstract
We discuss how the welfare ranking of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model depends on the interplay between the degree of exchange rate pass-through and the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods. We identify combinations of these two parameters for which flexible and fixed exchange rates are superior with respect to welfare as measured by a representative household's utility level. We estimate the two parameters for six non-EMU European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, and the UK) using a heterogeneous dynamic panel approach.
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Bank Credit Standards, Demand, Pro-cyclicality and the Business Cycle: A Comment
Á. Maddaloni, J. L. Peydró Alcalde, J. Suárez, Reint E. Gropp
Moneda y crédito,
No. 230,
2010
Abstract
We analyze the determinants fo standards and demand for loans to firms and house-holds over the last business cycle using the comprehensive and confidential Bank Lending Survery from the Euro area. There is significant variation of standards and demand over the cycle. Standards for business loans vary more during the business cycle than the lending standards for households, whereas credit demand from households varies more than demand from firms. Lending standards vary mainly due to charges in perception of borrower risk, bank balance sheet positions and competitive pressures. In particular, we find that higher GDP growth softens lending standards for all loans, i. e. lending standards are pro-cyclical. However, we also find pro-cyclicality in credit demand.
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Global Financial Crisis Seriously Hits Russian Economy Because of Structural Imbalances
Martina Kämpfe
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 6,
2009
Abstract
Due to the falling global demand for commodities and the heavy decline of world oil prices in last summer, Russian economy was affected seriously. The following decrease in export revenues and a wave of short-term capital withdrawals led to a crash of Russian stock and capital markets and a deterioration of the economic situation at the end of the previous year. The government decided to stabilize the exchange rate of the Rouble by interventions and to support the domestic banking sector in order to maintain credit availability. In respect of the approaching recession, the parliament approved an economic stimulus package that would help to stabilize the economy and to avoid too strong social burdens for the households. Nevertheless, there is a strong weakening of economic growth because of the economy’s dependency from oil prices and the lack of alternatives up to now.
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Business Cycle Forecast 2009: World Financial Crisis Triggers Deep Recession in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2009
Abstract
At the beginning of 2009, the major industrialized economies are in recession. The financial turmoil has developed into a crisis of confidence to and solvency of the financial sector, raising financing costs and lowering the value of assets for firms and households. Monetary and fiscal policies have reacted strongly, but they will not succeed in ending the recession until the financial sectors in the US and in Western Europe have stabilized. This forecast is made under the assumption that stabilization will start in the second half of 2009 because the continued protection of important financial institutions by governments will restore confidence – albeit at a low level – and because at this time, the fall of US-house prices will start to fade off.
The German economy is hit particularly hard, because the financial crisis depresses worldwide investment demand and the sectors producing investment goods are at the heart of the German economy. The recession will not end before the second half of 2009, and capacity utilization will decrease throughout the year. We expect a tentative revival to begin in a recovery of exports. While private investment will shrink markedly, consumption of private households and the government as well as public investment will dampen the downturn. GDP will shrink by 1.9% in Germany and in East Germany by 1.5% because this region is less dependent on exports.
Economic policy has to help restoring confidence, and this can only be achieved if it behaves in a consistent and predictable way.
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Public Housing and the Fear of Private Equity – Assessing Social Impacts
Dominik Weiß
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2008
Abstract
This contribution examines the consequences of sales of municipal flats to private investors, which have been criticised strongly for social reasons. An evaluation of the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) from 1999 to 2006 reveals no serious consequences of the privatisation of municipal flats on the affected households. It cannot produce empirical evidence to foster arguments for the public criticism of the public housing sales. The essential results from this sample point to moderate rent increases and above-average investment activity after the privatisation. However, the analysis of the household´s sentiment whether the total expense load for the flat is adequate shows that tenants in privatised flats found their flat increasingly expensive. A possible reason for this development might be the lower mobility of the residents of municipal flats.
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In Focus: State is Winner of Recent German Upswing
Axel Lindner
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
In 2006 and 2007, production expanded briskly in Germany. Real disposable incomes of private households, however, were almost stagnant. This article sheds, with help of national accounts data, some light on the reasons for this discrepancy: By far the most important factor is that the share of the general government in the disposable income of the whole economy increased strongly. The share of corporations in the disposable income increased, too. Finally, the deflator for consumption rose by more than the deflator of GDP mainly because of the price hike for imported commodities and energy.
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Business Cycle Forecast: On the Edge?
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 9,
2008
Abstract
During the summer of 2008, the world economy was further slowing. The financial crisis affects the real economy by tightened credit standards in the US and in the European Union, and housing markets are now in a severe crisis not only in the US, but also in some countries in Western Europe. Finally, consumption of households is affected by stagnating real disposable incomes due to the energy price hike. The slowing world economy, however, has caused the oil price to fall since July, and most emerging markets economies are, up to now, quite resilient.
In Germany, sentiment has deteriorated significantly. Production appears to be about stagnating in the summer. During winter, the devaluation of the euro and a beginning pick up of demand since July will help producers of tradable goods in Germany. Domestic demand will be supported by lower energy prices and healthily growing wage incomes. All in all, gross domestic product (gdp) (adjusted for the number of working days) will increase by 1,8% this year and by 0,8% in 2009.
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Consequences of the US-subprime Crisis Dampen Economic Growth in Germany
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
1. Sonderausgabe
2008
Abstract
The crises of the housing and the financial sector in the US and the turmoil on worldwide financial markets have clouded the prospects of the world economy for this and next year. In particular, conditions for financing consumption and investment will worsen. In addition, the price hikes for energy and food entail a redistribution of purchasing power from ordinary households to the producers of these goods. As a consequence of all this, the economy in the US will be more or less stagnating this year, and world growth will slow down. Firms in the nonfinancial sector, however, are generally in good financial condition, policy in the US takes strong measures to contain the crisis, and growth dynamics in emerging markets economies appear to be robust enough to withstand the dampening effects. In Germany, the economy is, in spite of the adverse effects from abroad and in particular the strong appreciation of the euro, still in good shape. Apparently, the economy has become more robust in the past years, partly due to increased competitiveness of German producers. Still, economic expansion will slow down, with annual growth rates of 1.8% for this year and 1.4% for 2009.
For the first time the forecast of the institutes comprises a medium term projection. For this, the potential growth rate of the German Economy is estimated to be 1.6%. As to policy recommendations, the institutes advise against the establishment of minimum wages in Germany, because they fear adverse effects for employment. In this point the IWH and its partners take a different view.
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Business cycle forecast 2008: German upswing takes a break
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2008
Abstract
Economic growth in the industrial countries will be much more muted in 2008 than in the past year. One cause is the prolonged oil price hike during 2007. The second and more important cause is the intensification of tensions on world financial markets. Due to problems in the financial sector, credit expansion will slow next year in the euro area as well as in the US. This will dampen demand in the real economy. A significant downswing in the industrial countries, however, is not the most likely scenario: in the US, expansive economic policy and a weak dollar that gives production in the US a competitive edge will prevent the economy from sliding into recession. In the euro area, high profitability of firms and structural improvements in the working of labour markets will help the economy cope with the stronger euro and with higher costs of external financing due to the turmoil in the financial sector. In Germany, the upswing has still not reached the demand of private households. The main reason is that real wages were stagnating in 2007 and will not rise by much in 2008, since inflation has accelerated considerably at the end of last year. In addition, weaker dynamics of external demand will dampen export growth. This and the end of tax incentives for investment at the end of 2007 will dampen investment activity. All in all, the economy will slow down in the first half of 2008. However, chances are good that the upswing will only have taken a break: when the dampening external shocks have ceased, the driving powers of the upswing will prevail; dynamic employment growth is a reflection of the strong confidence of firms. A major risk for employment and for the German economy in general is, however, the possibility that the policy concerning the labour markets changes course; bad omens are the recent the introduction of minimum wages for postal services and the announced extension of unemployment benefits for persons older than 50.
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