23.04.2024 • 13/2024
Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties
Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes in Europe. A study by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) is the first to show the long-term consequences of increased Chinese imports in European regions: Far-right and populist parties in particular have benefited from the so-called China shock in national elections.
Steffen Müller
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The Long-term Legacy of the Liberation of the Sudetenland by the Red and US Armies
Jakub Grossmann, Štěpán Jurajda
IDEA CERGE EI Studie,
No. 7,
2022
Abstract
Forced migration results in trauma to the millions of people displaced from their homes, but very little is known about the fate of those who avoided expulsion and became a minority in the new society. This analysis reveals how and to what degree the manner and extent of the post-war expulsion of the German population from the Sudetenland influenced the country’s long-term social development. (This publication is written in czech language.)
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27.03.2024 • 10/2024
Joint Economic Forecast 1/2024: Headwinds from Germany and abroad: institutes revise forecast significantly downwards
According to Germany’s five leading economic research institutes, the country’s economy shows cyclical and structural weaknesses. In their spring report, they revised their GDP forecast for the current year significantly downward to 0.1%. In the recent fall report, the figure was still 1.3%. Expectations for the coming year are almost unchanged at 1.4% (previously 1.5%). However, the level of economic activity will then be over 30 billion euros lower due to the current weak phase.
Oliver Holtemöller
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Global Political Ties and the Global Financial Cycle
Gene Ambrocio, Iftekhar Hasan, Xiang Li
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 23,
2023
Abstract
We study the implications of forging stronger political ties with the US on the sensitivities of stock returns around the world to a global common factor – the global financial cycle. Using voting patterns at the United Nations as a measure of political ties with the US along with various measures of the global financial cycle, we document evidence indicating that stronger political ties with the US amplify the sensitivities of stock returns in developing countries to the global financial cycle. We explore several channels and find that a deepening of financial linkages along with a reduction in information asymmetries and an amplification of sentiment are potentially important factors behind this result.
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Microdata for Economic Research in Europe: Challenges and Proposals
Eric Bartelsman, Marco Matani, Filippo di Mauro, Sergio Inferrera, Ugo Panizza, Michael Polder
CEPR,
No. 18640,
2023
Abstract
While access to high-quality microdata is essential for economic research and policy evaluation, effective access to such data remains limited in Europe. It varies from country to country, with uneven information on access procedures. This is a major obstacle to social science research, including research on European competitiveness and the effects of climate change, inequality, globalization, and digitalization. The objective of this paper, which is based on a brainstorming exercise coordinated by CEPR and CompNet, is to assess the status quo and discuss a series of proposals for improving access to Microdata for economic research. We underline the need for developing the relevant tools for extended access to and use of European business statistics microdata. Building such tools entails both establishing the requested microdata and creating a body facilitating cross-country access to the established databases with harmonized content.
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The Promise and Peril of Entrepreneurship
Robert W. Fairlie, Zachary Kroff, Javier Miranda, Nikolas Zolas
MIT Press,
2023
Abstract
Startups create jobs and power economic growth. That's an article of faith in the United States—but, as The Promise and Peril of Entrepreneurship reveals, our faith may be built on shaky ground. Economists Robert Fairlie, Zachary Kroff, Javier Miranda, and Nikolas Zolas—working with Census Bureau microdata—have developed a new data set, the Comprehensive Startup Panel, that tracks job creation and the survival of every startup in the country. In doing so, they recalibrate our understanding of how startups behave in the US economy. Specifically, their work seeks to answer three critical questions: How many jobs does each entrepreneur create? Do those jobs disappear quickly? And how long do entrepreneurial enterprises survive?
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Why Is the Roy-Borjas Model Unable to Predict International Migrant Selection on Education? Evidence from Urban and Rural Mexico
Stefan Leopold, Jens Ruhose, Simon Wiederhold
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 16,
2023
Abstract
The Roy-Borjas model predicts that international migrants are less educated than nonmigrants because the returns to education are generally higher in developing (migrant-sending) than in developed (migrant-receiving) countries. However, empirical evidence often shows the opposite. Using the case of Mexico-U.S. migration, we show that this inconsistency between predictions and empirical evidence can be resolved when the human capital of migrants is assessed using a two-dimensional measure of occupational skills rather than by educational attainment. Thus, focusing on a single skill dimension when investigating migrant selection can lead to misleading conclusions about the underlying economic incentives and behavioral models of migration.
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Cross-country Evidence on the Allocation of COVID-19 Government Subsidies and Consequences for Productivity
Tommaso Bighelli, Tibor Lalinsky, Juuso Vanhala
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
June
2023
Abstract
We study the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic and related policy support on productivity. We employ an extensive micro-distributed exercise to access otherwise unavailable individual data on firm performance and government subsidies. Our cross-country evidence for five EU countries shows that the pandemic led to a significant short-term decline in aggregate productivity and the direct support to firms had only a limited positive effect on productivity developments. A thorough comparative analysis of the distribution of employment and overall direct subsidies, considering separately also relative firm-level size of support and the probability of being supported, reveals ambiguous cross-country results related to the firm-level productivity and points to the decisive role of other firm characteristics.
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