Subsidized Vocational Education in East Germany: Stepping Stone or Dead End?
Eva Dettmann
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 12,
2009
Abstract
The aim of the study is to analyse whether the formally equal qualifications acquired during a subsidized vocational education induce equal employment opportunities compared to regular vocational training. This question is answered for adolescents in workplace-related training. Using replacement matching on the basis of a statistical distance function, we are able to control for selection effects resulting from different personal and profession-related characteristics and thus to identify an unbiased effect of the public support. The analysis is based on unique, very detailed data, the Youth Panel of the Halle Centre for Social Research (zsh).
The results show that young people who successfully completed a workplace-related training are disadvantaged regarding their employment opportunities even when controlling for personal and profession-related influences. Besides a quantitative effect on the percentage of employed adolescents, the analysis shows differences in the job quality: The employed graduates of workplace-related training work in worse paid jobs, and less are employed in qualification adequate occupations compared to matchable graduates of regular vocational education.
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The Requirement of Qualified Workers in Thuringia until 2015: Forecast and Policy Recommendations
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Christian Schmeißer, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 7,
2009
Abstract
We forecast the number of qualified workers required in the German federal state Thuringia until 2015 on the basis of the manpower requirement approach. Disaggregated by types of qualification, this method distinguishes between two sources of recruitment requirements: replacement demand for old workers and expansion demand to reflect structural changes of industry sectors and productivity growth. Both components are calculated from register data on employment covered by social security. Relative to current employment, recruitment requirements vary across occupations. A comparison of recruitment requirements for medium-skilled workers with the structure of vocational training reveals potential mismatch between demand and supply of medium-skilled labor in the near future if the composition of apprenticeship programs remains unchanged. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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Will There Be a Shortage of Skilled Labor? An East German Perspective to 2015
Herbert S. Buscher, Eva Dettmann, Marco Sunder, Dirk Trocka
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 13,
2009
Abstract
We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state, Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic transformation and experiences population ageing and shrinking more rapidly than most West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor supply and demand for the period 2009-2015, disaggregated by type of qualification. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor shortage but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In the second step, we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plan to expand further education efforts and hire older workers. The study closes with policy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
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Evaluation von Maßnahmen der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik mit Hilfe eines iterativen Matching-Algorithmus - Eine Fallstudie über langzeitarbeitslose Maßnahmeteilnehmer in Sachsen
Eva Reinowski, Birgit Schultz, Jürgen Wiemers
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 173,
2003
Abstract
The paper evaluates the effects of two labor market programs in Germany, namely the Job Creation- /Structural Adjustment Scheme and Vocational Training, on the unemployment duration of long term unemployed persons. The study uses data from the Mikrozensus Sachsen. A two step Nearest-Neighbor-Matching is employed to solve the sample selection problem. The first step is the estimation of the participation tendency to obtain potential pairs and to compute their Mahalanobis distances. For the assignment of pairs in the second step two different procedures are used: a standard technique and a new one - the iterative improvement of an initial assignment. This process is superior to the standard matching algorithms in the sense that it allows for a closer match between participants and non-participants. Including additional information about a person’s employment history enables us to eliminate the bias due to unobservables. The impact of participation in a labor market program is evaluated by comparing the unemployment duration between both groups using the Cox Proportional Hazard Model. Overall we find empirical evidence that both participation in Job Creation- /Structural Adjustment Scheme and Vocational Training result in even longer unemployment.
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