Surges and Instability: The Maturity Shortening Channel
Xiang Li, Dan Su
Journal of International Economics,
im Erscheinen
Abstract
Capital inflow surges destabilize the economy through a maturity shortening mechanism. The underlying reason is that firms have incentives to redeem their debt on demand to accommodate the potential liquidity needs of global investors, which makes international borrowing endogenously fragile. Based on a theoretical model and empirical evidence at both the firm and macro levels, our main findings are twofold. First, a significant association exists between surges and shortened corporate debt maturity, especially for firms with foreign bank relationships and higher redeployability. Second, the probability of a crisis following surges with a flattened yield curve is significantly higher than that following surges without one. Our study suggests that debt maturity is the key to understand the financial instability consequences of capital inflow bonanzas.
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Active Driver or Passive Victim - On the Role of International Monetary Policy Transmission
Annika Camehl, Gregor von Schweinitz
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 3,
2023
Abstract
We provide new insights into determinants of international interest rates spillovers across seven advanced economies. To disentangle and quantify their respective importance, we identify country-specific structural monetary policy, demand, and supply equations in a Bayesian structural panel vector autoregressive model. We formulate prior beliefs on magnitudes and signs of contemporaneous structural coefficients (i.e., (semi-)elasticities), based on a standard theoretical multi-country open economy model from the literature. Our findings show that interest rate spillovers occur via an aggregated demand channel. Unexpected monetary tightening causes modest declines in most foreign interest rates, while demand and supply shocks result in increased foreign interest rates. Our results support that central banks respond to changes in the domestic macroeconomic environment induced by domestic or foreign shocks rather than directly reacting to foreign shocks. Spillovers are quantitatively stronger for shocks originating in economically large areas with strong trade linkages.
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European Real Estate Markets During the Pandemic: Is COVID-19 also a Case for House Price Concerns?
Michael Koetter, Felix Noth
IWH Policy Notes,
Nr. 3,
2022
Abstract
We use a new database on European real estate purchase and rental prices – the IWH European Real Estate Index – to document the relationship between staggered COVID-19 dynamics and real estate prices in 14 EU countries between January 2020 and December 2021. For most countries, we find no statistically significant response of monthly purchase and rental prices due to an increase of regional COVID-19 cases. For the UK we find that more COVID-19 cases depressed both purchase and rental prices significantly, but the economic magnitude of effects was mild during this sample period. In contrast, rents in Italy increased in response to hiking COVID-19 cases, illustrating the importance to consider heterogeneous crisis patterns across the EU when designing policies. Overall, COVID-19 dynamics did not affect real estate values significantly during the pandemic, thereby mitigating potential financial stability concerns via a mortgage lending channel at the time.
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Real Estate Transaction Taxes and Credit Supply
Michael Koetter, Philipp Marek, Antonios Mavropoulos
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 26,
2022
Abstract
We exploit staggered real estate transaction tax (RETT) hikes across German states to identify the effect of house price changes on mortgage credit supply. Based on approximately 33 million real estate online listings, we construct a quarterly hedonic house price index (HPI) between 2008:q1 and 2017:q4, which we instrument with state-specific RETT changes to isolate the effect on mortgage credit supply by all local German banks. First, a RETT hike by one percentage point reduces HPI by 1.2%. This effect is driven by listings in rural regions. Second, a 1% contraction of HPI induced by an increase in the RETT leads to a 1.4% decline in mortgage lending. This transmission of fiscal policy to mortgage credit supply is effective across almost the entire bank capitalization distribution.
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Firm Subsidies, Financial Intermediation, and Bank Stability
Aleksandr Kazakov, Michael Koetter, Mirko Titze, Lena Tonzer
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 24,
2022
Abstract
We use granular project-level information for the largest regional economic development program in German history to study whether government subsidies to firms affect the quantity and quality of bank lending. We combine the universe of recipient firms under the Improvement of Regional Economic Structures program (GRW) with their local banks during 1998-2019. The modalities of GRW subsidies to firms are determined at the EU level. Therefore, we use it to identify bank outcomes. Banks with relationships to more subsidized firms exhibit higher lending volumes without any significant differences in bank stability. Subsidized firms, in turn, borrow more indicating that banks facilitate regional economic development policies.
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The Color of Corporate Loan Securitization
Isabella Müller, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 22,
2022
Abstract
We examine whether banks manage firms’ climate transition risks via corporate loan securitization. Results show that banks are more likely to securitize loans granted to firms that become more carbon-intensive. The effect is more pronounced if banks have a lower willingness to adjust loan terms. Exploiting the election of Donald Trump as an exogenous shock that lowers transition risk, we show that banks respond by a lower securitization of loans given to firms that become more carbon-intensive. This is mainly driven by banks that have no or low preferences for sustainable lending and domestic lenders.
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Do Banks Value Borrowers' Environmental Record? Evidence from Financial Contracts
I-Ju Chen, Iftekhar Hasan, Chih-Yung Lin, Tra Ngoc Vy Nguyen
Journal of Business Ethics,
im Erscheinen
Abstract
Banks play a unique role in society. They not only maximize profits but also consider the interests of stakeholders. We investigate whether banks consider firms’ pollution records in their lending decisions. The evidence shows that banks offer significantly higher loan spreads, higher total borrowing costs, shorter loan maturities, and greater collateral to firms with higher levels of chemical pollution. The costly effects are stronger for borrowers with greater risk and weaker corporate governance. Further, the results show that banks with higher social responsibility account for their borrowers’ environmental performance and charge higher loan spreads to those with poor performance. These results support the idea that banks with higher social responsibility can promote the practice of business ethics in firms.
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BigTech Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission: Micro-level Evidence from China
Yiping Huang, Xiang Li, Han Qiu, Changhua Yu
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 18,
2022
Abstract
This paper studies monetary policy transmission through BigTech and traditional banks. By comparing business loans made by a BigTech bank with those made by traditional banks, it finds that BigTech credit amplifies monetary policy transmission mainly through the extensive margin. Specifically, the BigTech bank is more likely to grant credit to new borrowers compared with conventional banks in response to expansionary monetary policy. The BigTech bank‘s advantages in information, monitoring, and risk management are the potential mechanisms. In addition, monetary policy has a stronger impact on the real economy through BigTech lending.
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A Note on the Use of Syndicated Loan Data
Isabella Müller, Felix Noth, Lena Tonzer
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 17,
2022
Abstract
Syndicated loan data provided by DealScan has become an essential input in banking research over recent years. This data is rich enough to answer urging questions on bank lending, e.g., in the presence of financial shocks or climate change. However, many data options raise the question of how to choose the estimation sample. We employ a standard regression framework analyzing bank lending during the financial crisis to study how conventional but varying usages of DealScan affect the estimates. The key finding is that the direction of coefficients remains relatively robust. However, statistical significance seems to depend on the data and sampling choice.
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Explicit Deposit Insurance Design: International Effects on Bank Lending during the Global Financial Crisis
Iftekhar Hasan, Liuling Liu, Anthony Saunders, Gaiyan Zhang
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
July
2022
Abstract
Studies find that during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, loan spreads rose and corporate lending tightened, especially for foreign borrowers (a flight-home effect). We find that banks in countries with explicit deposit insurance (DI) made smaller reductions in total lending and foreign lending, experienced smaller increases in loan spreads, and had quicker post-crisis recoveries. These effects are more pronounced for banks heavily relying on deposit funding. Evidence also reveals that more generous or credible DI design is associated with a stronger stabilization effect on bank lending during the crisis, confirmed by the difference-in-differences analysis based on expansion of DI coverage during the crisis. The stabilization effect is robust to the use of country-specific crisis measures and control of temporary government guarantees.
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