Evaluation of the Main Achievements of Cohesion Policy Programmes over the Longer Term in 15 Selected Regions (from 1989-1993 Programming Period to the Present) (2011.CE.16.B.AT.015): Case Study Sachsen-Anhalt
Marina Grusevaja, Gerhard Heimpold, O. Schwab, K. Schwarze
Analyse: Bewertungen des Programmplanungszeitraums,
2013
Abstract
Sachsen-Anhalt’s regional development has been heavily determined by the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy after German unification in 1990. The process of transition took place during the 1990s as the formal rules associated with a market economy system were adopted. Nevertheless, a number of structural peculiarities which have their roots in the transition period continue to have an impact. This feature is not specific to Sachsen-Anhalt; it concerns all East German regions.
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The New EU Countries and Euro Adoption
Hubert Gabrisch, Martina Kämpfe
Intereconomics,
Nr. 3,
2013
Abstract
In the new member states of the EU which have not yet adopted the euro, previous adoption strategies have come under scrutiny. The spillovers and contagion from the global financial crisis revealed a new threat to the countries’ real convergence goal, namely considerable vulnerability to the transmission of financial instability to the real economy. This paper demonstrates the existence of extreme risks for real convergence and argues in favour of a new adoption strategy which does not announce a target date for the currency changeover and which allows for more flexible and countercyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies.
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Competitiveness Research Network – First Year Results
Filippo di Mauro
CompNet Report,
June
2013
Abstract
This interim report summarises the main findings of the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) after one year of existence. The Network is organized in three workstreams related to: (i) aggregate measures of competitiveness; (ii) firm-level studies; and (iii) global value chains (GVCs). The main objectives of the Network are to improve the existing frameworks and indicators of competitiveness across all dimensions (macro, micro and cross-border) and establish a more solid connection between identified competitiveness drivers and resulting outcomes (trade, aggregate productivity, employment, growth and essentially welfare), in order to support the design of adequate policies.
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Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
This paper presents a method to conduct early estimates of GDP growth in Germany. We employ MIDAS regressions to circumvent the mixed frequency problem and use pooling techniques to summarize efficiently the information content of the various indicators. More specifically, we investigate whether it is better to disaggregate GDP (either via total value added of each sector or by the expenditure side) or whether a direct approach is more appropriate when it comes to forecasting GDP growth. Our approach combines a large set of monthly and quarterly coincident and leading indicators and takes into account the respective publication delay. In a simulated out-of-sample experiment we evaluate the different modelling strategies conditional on the given state of information and depending on the model averaging technique. The proposed approach is computationally simple and can be easily implemented as a nowcasting tool. Finally, this method also allows retracing the driving forces of the forecast and hence enables the interpretability of the forecast outcome.
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How to Create a New Holiday Destination? An Evaluation of Local Public Investment for Supporting Tourism Industry
Albrecht Kauffmann, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics,
2013
Abstract
Since the 1990s tourism has been one major area in Saxony where new local public infrastructure has been created. The question is whether this newly-built tourism infrastructure has been able to change the path of economic development in those municipalities where the investment has occurred. Is it possible to activate the tourism industry with the help of public investment at locations that are completely new to the tourism industry? The econometric estimations and a survey of businesses in the field of tourism make it clear that the new tourist infrastructure really did have a positive effect on local employment – but not everywhere and not in every case. Tourist infrastructure will only have a major positive impact on economic development if a municipality already has a “track record” of being a tourist destination and is well-equipped with the relevant complementary factors for tourist activities and the “primary features” of tourist destinations – History matters!
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Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment
Katja Drechsel, Rolf Scheufele
Abstract
This paper presents a method to conduct early estimates of GDP growth in Germany. We employ MIDAS regressions to circumvent the mixed frequency problem and use pooling techniques to summarize efficiently the information content of the various indicators. More specifically, we investigate whether it is better to disaggregate GDP (either via total value added of each sector or by the expenditure side) or whether a direct approach is more appropriate when it comes to forecasting GDP growth. Our approach combines a large set of monthly and quarterly coincident and leading indicators and takes into account the respective publication delay.
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Initial Evidence from a New Database on Capital Market Restrictions
Makram El-Shagi
Panoeconomicus,
Nr. 3,
2012
Abstract
One of the key obstacles to the empirical analysis of capital controls has been the unavailability of a detailed set of indicators for controls that cover a broad set of countries over a range of years. In this paper, we propose a new set of indicators derived from the Annual Reports on Exchange Arrangements and Export Restrictions. Contrary to most earlier attempts to construct control indicators from this source, our set of indices allows one to analyze the control intensity separately for inflow, outflow and repatriation controls. An additional set of indicators features information on the institutional design of controls. At first glance, the data show that the financial crisis caused a surge in capital market restrictions, most notably concerning the derivatives market. This reflex, which is not justified by the scarce empirical evidence on the success of controls, shows the importance of having a valid measure to allow an econometrically sound policy evaluation in this field. The data are available from the author upon request.
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The Synchronization of Wage Dynamics across EMU Members: A Test of the Endogeneity Hypothesis
Herbert S. Buscher, Hubert Gabrisch
Empirica,
Nr. 3,
2012
Abstract
We test the hypothesis of an endogenous currency area for the labor market of the Euro area: has the introduction of a common currency caused wage dynamics to become more synchronized and to be able to cushion for asymmetric shocks? Trade intensity, sector specialization and financial integration are tested for being the driving forces for the endogenous synchronization of wage dynamics. We use regression techniques with instrument variables, and find evidence of persistent asymmetries in nominal wage formation, despite a single currency and monetary policy. We explain the result with more specialization following financial integration, and with still existing differences in wage formation and labor market institutions. We conclude that the euro zone is not endogenous with respect to wage formation. Rather, there are incentives for beggar-thy-neighbor policies in the Euro area.
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State Aid in the Enlarged European Union: Taking Stock
Jens Hölscher, Nicole Nulsch, Johannes Stephan
From Global Crisis to Economic Growth. Which Way to Take?, Vol. 1,
2012
Abstract
In the early phase of transition that started with the 1990s, Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) pursued economic restructuring that involved massive injections of state support. With reference to the history of state aids in centrally planned economies we display state aid practices of CEECs since full EU membership and analyse whether their industrial policies during and after transition challenged the European state aid legislation and whether these fit into the EUs strategy of ‘less but better targeted aid’. Therefore, qualitative analysis in case studies is used to supplement a quantitative description of state aid levels in East and West. Findings suggest that in recent years a level playing field across the EU has indeed emerged. In fact, the most pronounced differences in this respect are not observed between CEECs and the EU-15 but rather between Northern and Southern member states.
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Intellectual Property Rights Policy, Competition and Innovation
Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit
Journal of the European Economic Association,
Nr. 1,
2012
Abstract
To what extent and in what form should the intellectual property rights (IPR) of innovators be protected? Should a company with a large technology lead over its rivals receive the same IPR protection as a company with a more limited advantage? In this paper, we develop a dynamic framework for the study of the interactions between IPR and competition, in particular to understand the impact of such policies on future incentives. The economy consists of many industries and firms engaged in cumulative (step-by-step) innovation. IPR policy regulates whether followers in an industry can copy the technology of the leader. We prove the existence of a steady-state equilibrium and characterize some of its properties. We then quantitatively investigate the implications of different types of IPR policy on the equilibrium growth rate and welfare. The most important result from this exercise is that full patent protection is not optimal; instead, optimal policy involves state-dependent IPR protection, providing greater protection to technology leaders that are further ahead than those that are close to their followers. This is because of a trickle-down effect: providing greater protection to firms that are further ahead of their followers than a certain threshold increases the R&D incentives also for all technology leaders that are less advanced than this threshold.
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