Evidence-based Support for Adaptation Policies in Emerging Economies
Maximilian Banning, Anett Großmann, Katja Heinisch, Frank Hohmann, Christian Lutz, Christoph Schult
IWH Studies,
Nr. 2,
2023
Abstract
In recent years, the impacts of climate change become increasingly evident, both in magnitude and frequency. The design and implementation of adequate climate adaptation policies play an important role in the macroeconomic policy discourse to assess the impact of climate change on regional and sectoral economic growth. We propose different modelling approaches to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change and design specific adaptations in three emerging market economies (Kazakhstan, Georgia and Vietnam) which belong to the areas that are heavily exposed to climate change. A Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model has been used for Vietnam and economy-energy-emission (E3) models for the other two countries. Our modelling results show how different climate hazards impact the economy up to the year 2050. Adaptation measures in particular in the agricultural sector have positive implications for the gross domestic product (GDP). However, some adaptation measures can even increase greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the focus on GDP as the main indicator to evaluate policy measures can produce welfare-reducing policy decisions.
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Loan Securitisation during the Transition to a Low-carbon Economy
Isabella Müller, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen
VoxEU CEPR,
May
2023
Abstract
Banks play a crucial role in the transition to a low-carbon economy, but they also expose themselves to climate transition risk. This column shows that banks use corporate loan securitisation to shift climate transition risk to less-regulated shadow banking entities. This behaviour affects carbon premia in loan contracts. When banks can use securitisation to manage transition risk, their climate policies that target only activities reflected in their books may not be as effective as bank regulators hope for.
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Evidence-based Support for Adaptation Policies in Emerging Economies
Maximilian Banning, Anett Großmann, Katja Heinisch, Frank Hohmann, Christian Lutz, Christoph Schult
Low Carbon Economy,
Nr. 1,
2023
Abstract
Climate change is increasingly evident, and the design of effective climate adaptation policies is important for regional and sectoral economic growth. We propose different modelling approaches to quantify the socio-economic impacts of climate change on three vulnerable countries (Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Vietnam) and design specific adaptations. We use a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model for Vietnam and an economy-energy-emission (E3) model for the other two countries. Our simulations until 2050 show that selected adaptation measures, in particular in the agricultural sector, have positive implications for GDP. However, some adaptation measures can even increase greenhouse gas emissions. Focusing on GDP alone can lead to welfare-reducing policy decisions.
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Carbon Transition Risk and Corporate Loan Securitization
Isabella Müller, Huyen Nguyen, Trang Nguyen
Abstract
We examine how banks manage carbon transition risk by selling loans given to polluting borrowers to less regulated shadow banks in securitization markets. Exploiting the election of Donald Trump as an exogenous shock that reduces carbon risk, we find that banks’ securitization decisions are sensitive to borrowers’ carbon footprints. Banks are more likely to securitize brown loans when carbon risk is high but swiftly change to keep these loans on their balance sheets when carbon risk is reduced after Trump’s election. Importantly, securitization enables banks to offer lower interest rates to polluting borrowers but does not affect the supply of green loans. Our findings are more pronounced among domestic banks and banks that do not display green lending preferences. We discuss how securitization can weaken the effectiveness of bank climate policies through reducing banks’ incentives to price carbon risk.
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Climate Change-Related Regulatory Risks and Bank Lending
Isabella Müller, Eleonora Sfrappini
ECB Working Paper,
Nr. 2670,
2022
Abstract
We identify the effect of climate change-related regulatory risks on credit real-location. Our evidence suggests that effects depend borrower's region. Following an increase in salience of regulatory risks, banks reallocate credit to US firms that could be negatively impacted by regulatory interventions. Conversely, in Europe, banks lend more to firms that could benefit from environmental regulation. The effect is moderated by banks' own loan portfolio composition. Banks with a portfolio tilted towards firms that could be negatively a affected by environmental policies increasingly support these firms. Overall, our results indicate that financial implications of regulation associated with climate change appear to be the main drivers of banks' behavior.
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01.07.2020 • 11/2020
IWH untersucht Folgen des Kohleausstiegs in Europa
Wie verändert der Kohleausstieg die Gesellschaft – und wie kann Politik darauf reagieren? Diese Fragen untersuchen
14 europäische Partner in einem neuen interdisziplinären Forschungsprojekt. Dabei wird das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) ökonomische Folgen wie Arbeitslosigkeit und Abwanderung für ausgewählte Kohleregionen Europas analysieren. Die EU fördert das Gesamtprojekt für drei Jahre mit knapp drei Millionen Euro.
Oliver Holtemöller
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International Side-payments to Improve Global Public Good Provision when Transfers are Refinanced through a Tax on Local and Global Externalities
Martin Altemeyer-Bartscher, A. Markandya, Dirk T. G. Rübbelke
International Economic Journal,
Nr. 1,
2014
Abstract
This paper discusses a tax-transfer scheme that aims to address the under-provision problem associated with the private supply of international public goods and to bring about Pareto optimal allocations internationally. In particular, we consider the example of the global public good ‘climate stabilization’, both in an analytical and a numerical simulation model. The proposed scheme levies Pigouvian taxes globally, while international side-payments are employed in order to provide incentives to individual countries for not taking a free-ride from the international Pigouvian tax scheme. The side-payments, in turn, are financed via environmental taxes. As a distinctive feature, we take into account ancillary benefits that may be associated with local public characteristics of climate policy. We determine the positive impact that ancillary effects may exert on the scope for financing side-payments via environmental taxation. A particular attractive feature of ancillary benefits is that they arise shortly after the implementation of climate policies and therefore yield an almost immediate payback of investments in abatement efforts. Especially in times of high public debt levels, long periods of amortization would tend to reduce political support for investments in climate policy.
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Investment (FDI) Policy for Azerbaijan, Final report
Jutta Günther, Björn Jindra
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
Nr. 4,
2009
Abstract
The report has been prepared on behalf of the Association for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) as integral part of the “Private Sector Development Program” run by the GTZ in Azerbaijan. A comprehensive investment policy is outlined with particular focus on the possibilities to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in Azerbaijan’s manufacturing industry (non-oil sector). The report makes particular reference to the experiences with investment policy development in Central and East European transition economies. It touches legal and institutional framework conditions in Azerbaijan as well as possible investment incentives schemes including investment promotion. Major recommendations refer to trade integration within the region, introduction of tax incentives as well as further improvements in business climate. Furthermore, the importance of complementary policies, such as competition and education policy, is stressed.
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