Climate-resilient Economic Development in Vietnam: Insights from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis (DGE-CRED)
Andrej Drygalla, Katja Heinisch, Christoph Schult
IWH Technical Reports,
Nr. 1,
2024
Abstract
In a multi-sector and multi-region framework, this paper employs a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze climate-resilient economic development (DGE-CRED) in Vietnam. We calibrate sector and region-specific damage functions and quantify climate variable impacts on productivity and capital formation for various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 119, 245, and 585). Our results based on simulations and cost-benefit analyses reveal a projected 5 percent reduction in annual GDP by 2050 in the SSP 245 scenario. Adaptation measures for the dyke system are crucial to mitigate the consumption gap, but they alone cannot sufficiently address it. Climate-induced damages to agriculture and labor productivity are the primary drivers of consumption reductions, underscoring the need for focused adaptation measures in the agricultural sector and strategies to reduce labor intensity as vital policy considerations for Vietnam’s response to climate change.
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Political Polarization and Finance
Elisabeth Kempf, Margarita Tsoutsoura
Annual Review of Financial Economics,
November
2024
Abstract
We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and the available data sources used to infer individuals’ partisan leanings. We then describe and discuss the empirical evidence. Our review suggests an economically large and often growing partisan gap in the financial decisions of households, corporate executives, and financial intermediaries. Partisan alignment between individuals explains team and financial relationship formation, with initial evidence suggesting that high levels of partisan homogeneity may be associated with economic costs. We conclude by proposing several promising directions for future research.
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Climate Policy and International Capital Reallocation
Marius Fourné, Xiang Li
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 20,
2024
Abstract
This study employs bilateral data on external assets to examine the impact of climate policies on the reallocation of international capital. We find that the stringency of climate policy in the destination country is significantly and positively associated with an increase in the allocation of portfolio equity and banking investment to that country. However, it does not show significant effects on the allocation of foreign direct investment and portfolio debt. Our findings are not driven by valuation effects, and we present evidence that suggests diversification, suasion, and uncertainty mitigation as possible underlying mechanisms.
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Industry Mix, Local Labor Markets, and the Incidence of Trade Shocks
Steffen Müller, Jens Stegmaier, Moises Yi
Journal of Labor Economics,
Nr. 3,
2024
Abstract
We analyze how skill transferability and the local industry mix affect the adjustment costs of workers hit by a trade shock. Using German administrative data and novel measures of economic distance we construct an index of labor market absorptiveness that captures the degree to which workers from a particular industry are able to reallocate into other jobs. Among manufacturing workers, we find that the earnings loss associated with increased import exposure is much higher for those who live in the least absorptive regions. We conclude that the local industry composition plays an important role in the adjustment processes of workers.
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Disentangling Stock Return Synchronicity From the Auditor's Perspective
Iftekhar Hasan, Joseph A. Micale, Qiang Wu
Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,
Nr. 5,
2024
Abstract
This paper investigates a firm's stock return asynchronicity through the auditor's perspective to distinguish whether this asynchronicity can proxy for the company's firm-specific information or the quality of its information environment. We find a significant and positive association between asynchronicity and audit fees after controlling for auditor quality and other factors that affect audit fees, suggesting that stock return asynchronicity is more likely to capture a company's firm-specific information than its information environment. We also find that asynchronous firms are more likely to receive adverse opinions on their internal controls over financial reporting, but are associated with lower costs of capital and auditor litigation, providing further evidence in support of the firm-specific information argument. Asynchronicity's positive association with audit fees is driven by firms with higher accounting reporting complexity, suggesting stock return asynchronicity captures a firm's complexity, resulting in more significant efforts by the auditor.
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Medienecho
Medienecho Mai 2025 Steffen Müller: Höchster Stand bei Pleiten seit 20 Jahren in: Bremer Nachrichten, 09.05.2025 Steffen Müller: Wirtschaftsinstitut meldet so viele Insolvenzen…
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Financial Debt Contracting and Managerial Agency Problems
Björn Imbierowicz, Daniel Streitz
Financial Management,
Nr. 1,
2024
Abstract
This paper analyzes if lenders resolve managerial agency problems in loan contracts using sweep covenants. Sweeps require a (partial) prepayment when triggered and are included in many contracts. Exploiting exogenous reductions in analyst coverage due to brokerage house mergers and closures, we find that increased borrower opacity significantly increases sweep use. The effect is strongest for borrowers with higher levels of managerial entrenchment and if lenders hold both debt and equity in the firm. Overall, our results suggest that lenders implement sweep covenants to mitigate managerial agency problems by limiting contingencies of wealth expropriation.
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Archiv
Medienecho-Archiv 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 Dezember 2021 IWH: Ausblick auf Wirtschaftsjahr 2022 in Sachsen mit Bezug auf IWH-Prognose zu Ostdeutschland: "Warum Sachsens…
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Voting under Debtor Distress
Jakub Grossmann, Štěpán Jurajda
Abstract
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship; the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum.
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COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic
Alena Bičáková, Štěpán Jurajda
Abstract
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.
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