IWH Research Seminar

Foreign Portfolios and Domestic Business Cycles with Heterogeneous Households

IWH Research Seminar

Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-state Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle

We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net softthresholding rule.

IWH Research Seminar

Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle

We show that occasional deviations from efficient wage-setting generate strong and statedependent amplication of exogenous uncertainty shocks and contribute to explain the observed countercyclicality of empirical measures of aggregate uncertainty.

IWH Research Seminar

Uncertainty-driven Business Cycles: Assessing the Markup Channel

A growing recent literature relies on a precautionary pricing motive embedded in representative agent DSGE models with sticky prices and wages to generate negative output effects of uncertainty shocks.