Alessandro Sardone

Alessandro Sardone
Aktuelle Position

seit 9/20

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter der Abteilung Makroökonomik

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)


  • Fiskal- und Geldpolitik
  • Prognosen

Alessandro Sardone ist seit September 2020 Doktorand in der Abteilung Makroökonomik. Er forscht zu den Themen Prognosen, politische Ökonomie sowie Fiskal- und Geldpolitik.

Alessandro Sardone studierte an der University of Trento und der Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena.

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Alessandro Sardone
Alessandro Sardone
Mitglied - Abteilung Makroökonomik
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Phillips Curve and Output Expectations: New Perspectives from the Euro Zone

Giuliana Passamani Alessandro Sardone Roberto Tamborini

in: DEM Working Papers, im Erscheinen


When referring to the inflation trends over the last decade, economists speak of "puzzles": a “missing disinflation” puzzle in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and a ”missing inflation” one in the years of recovery to nowadays. To this, a specific "excess deflation" puzzle may be added during the post-crisis depression in the Euro Zone. The standard Phillips Curve model, in this context, has failed as the basic tool to produce reliable forecasts of future price developments, leading many scholars to consider this instrument to be no more adequate. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this literature through the development of a newly specified Phillips Curve model, in which the inflation-expectation component is rationally related to the business cycle. The model is tested with the Euro Zone data 1999-2019 showing that inflation turns out to be consistently determined by output gaps and and experts' survey-based forecast errors, and that the puzzles can be explained by the interplay between these two variables.

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