Internationale Integration der Finanzmärkte, Wirtschaftswachstum und Finanzstabilität

Die internationale Integration der Finanzmärkte ist einer der wichtigsten weltwirtschaftlichen Trends der Gegenwart. Diese Forschungsgruppe analysiert die Rolle der internationalen Finanzintegration für Wirtschaftswachstum und Finanzstabilität.

Aus neoklassischer Sicht erhöht ein integrierter globaler Finanzmarkt das Wirtschaftswachstum, denn er senkt die Kapitalkosten und ermöglicht die Diversifikation von Risiken. Länder mit liberalisiertem internationalen Kapitalverkehr schneiden jedoch nicht unbedingt besser ab als Volkswirtschaften mit Kapitalverkehrskontrollen; und die jüngste Weltfinanzkrise hat sogar dazu geführt, dass sich Finanzmärkte teilweise wieder disintegrieren. Die Neubewertung der Rolle der Finanzintegration für Wirtschaftswachstum und Finanzstabilität scheint also von erheblicher Bedeutung, aus wirtschaftspolitischer Sicht ebenso wie für die akademische Forschung.

Diese Forschungsgruppe soll Antworten auf folgende Fragen suchen: Erstens untersucht die Gruppe, wie die Produktivität von Unternehmen vom Zugang zu internationalem Kapital beeinflusst wird und ob kapitalintensive Sektoren in besonderem Maße von der Liberalisierung des Kapitalverkehrs profitieren. Darüber hinaus untersucht diese Gruppe die strukturellen Transformationsfolgen der finanziellen Integration. Zweitens erreicht internationales Kapital die Realwirtschaft über die Vermittlung durch Finanzinstitute. Die Gruppe analysiert, ob der grenzüberschreitende Kapitalfluss das Verhalten der Banken ändert und insbesondere, wie die Finanzierungslaufzeit, die Struktur und das systemische Risiko beeinflusst werden. Drittens haben internationale Organisationen wie der IWF eine schrittweise Liberalisierung des Kapitalverkehrs vorgeschlagen.  So soll die Liberalisierung der Kapitalimporte zeitlichen Vorrang haben vor derjenigen für Kapitalexporte, und die Liberalisierung von Direktinvestitionen soll vor derjenigen von Investitionen in Krediten und Wertpapieren kommen. Es gibt allerdings derzeit noch wenige empirische Arbeiten, die diese Empfehlungen stützen. Die Forschungsgruppe untersucht, ob und wie die Sequenzierung der Kapitalverkehrsliberalisierung für die finanzielle Stabilität von Bedeutung ist.

Forschungscluster
Finanzstabilität und Regulierung

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Juniorprofessorin Xiang Li, Ph.D.
Juniorprofessorin Xiang Li, Ph.D.
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Referierte Publikationen

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From World Factory to World Investor: The New Way of China Integrating into the World

Bijun Wang Xiang Li

in: China Economic Journal, Nr. 2, 2017

Abstract

This paper argues that outward direct investment (ODI) is replacing international trade as the new way China integrates into the world. Based on two complementary datasets, we document the pattern of Chinese ODI. We argue that the rapid growth of China’s ODI is the result of strong economic development, increasing domestic constraints, and supportive government policies. Compared with trade integration, investment integration involves China more deeply in global business. As a new global investor, China’s ODI in the future is full of opportunities, risks, and challenges. The Chinese government should improve bureaucracy coordination and participate more in designing and maintaining international rules to protect ODI interests.

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Arbeitspapiere

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How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Debt Maturity?

Xiang Li Dan Su

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 6, 2020

Abstract

This paper investigates whether and how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate debt maturity. Using a cross-country firm-level dataset for France, Germany, Spain, and Italy from 1996 to 2010, we find that an increase in economic policy uncertainty is significantly associated with a shortened debt maturity. Specifically, a 1% increase in economic policy uncertainty is associated with a 0.22% decrease in the long-term debt-to-assets ratio and a 0.08% decrease in debt maturity. Moreover, the impacts of economic policy uncertainty are stronger for innovation-intensive firms. We use firms‘ flexibility in changing debt maturity and the deviation to leverage target to gauge the causal relationship, and identify the reduced investment and steepened term structure as transmission mechanisms.

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Capital Account Liberalisation Does Worsen Income Inequality

Xiang Li Dan Su

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 7, 2020

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between capital account liberalisation and income inequality. Adopting a novel identification strategy, namely a difference-in-difference estimation combined with propensity score matching between the liberalised and closed countries, we provide robust evidence that opening the capital account is associated with an adverse impact on income inequality in developing countries. The main findings are threefold. First, fully liberalising the capital account is associated with a small rise of 0.07-0.30 standard deviations in the Gini coefficient in the short-run and a rise as large as 0.32-0.62 standard deviations in the ten years after liberalisation, on average. Second, widening income inequality is the outcome of the growing income share of the rich at the cost of the poor. The long-term effect of capital account liberalisation includes a reduction in the income share of the poorest half by 2.66-3.79 percentage points and an increase in the income share of the richest 10% by 5.19-8.76 percentage points. Third, the directions and categories of capital account liberalisation matter. Inward capital account liberalisation is more detrimental to income equality than outward capital account liberalisation, and free access to the international equity market exacerbates income inequality the most, while foreign direct investment has an insignificant impact on inequality.

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What Does Peer-to-Peer Lending Evidence Say About the Risk-taking Channel of Monetary Policy?

Yiping Huang Xiang Li Chu Wang

in: IWH-Diskussionspapiere, Nr. 14, 2019

Abstract

This paper uses loan application-level data from a Chinese peer-to-peer lending platform to study the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. By employing a direct ex-ante measure of risk-taking and estimating the simultaneous equations of loan approval and loan amount, we are the first to provide quantitative evidence of the impact of monetary policy on the risk-taking of nonbank financial institution. We find that the search-for-yield is the main workhorse of the risk-taking effect, while we do not observe consistent findings of risk-shifting from the liquidity change. Monetary policy easing is associated with a higher probability of granting loans to risky borrowers and a greater riskiness of credit allocation, but these changes do not necessarily relate to a larger loan amount on average.

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What Does Peer-to-Peer Lending Evidence Say About the Risk-taking Channel of Monetary Policy?

Yiping Huang Xiang Li Chu Wang

in: CESifo Area Conferences 2019 Series: Macro, Money and International Finance, 2019

Abstract

This paper uses loan application-level data from a peer-to-peer lending platform to study the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. By employing a direct ex-ante measure of risk-taking and estimating the simultaneous equations of loan approval and loan amount, we are the first to provide quantitative evidence of the impact of monetary policy on the risk-taking of nonbank financial institution. We find that the search-for-yield is the main workhorse of the risk-taking effect, while we do not observe consistent findings of risk-shifting from the liquidity change. Monetary policy easing is associated with a higher probability of granting loans to risky borrowers and a greater riskiness of credit allocation, but these changes do not necessarily relate to a larger loan amount on average.

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China’s Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations

Michael McMahon Alfred Schipke Xiang Li

in: IMF Working Paper No. 18/244, 2018

Abstract

Financial markets are eager for any signal of monetary policy from the People’s Bank of China (PBC). The importance of effective monetary policy communication will only increase as China continues to liberalize its financial system and open its economy. This paper discusses the country’s unique institutional setup and empirically analyzes the impact on financial markets of the PBC’s main communication channels, including a novel communication channel. The results suggest that there has been significant progress but that PBC communication is still evolving toward the level of other major economies. The paper recommends medium-term policy reforms and reforms that can be adopted quickly.

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