Internationale Integration der Finanzmärkte, Wirtschaftswachstum und Finanzstabilität
Die internationale Integration der Finanzmärkte ist einer der wichtigsten weltwirtschaftlichen Trends der Gegenwart. Diese Forschungsgruppe analysiert die Rolle der internationalen Finanzintegration für Wirtschaftswachstum und Finanzstabilität.
Aus neoklassischer Sicht erhöht ein integrierter globaler Finanzmarkt das Wirtschaftswachstum, denn er senkt die Kapitalkosten und ermöglicht die Diversifikation von Risiken. Länder mit liberalisiertem internationalen Kapitalverkehr schneiden jedoch nicht unbedingt besser ab als Volkswirtschaften mit Kapitalverkehrskontrollen; und die jüngste Weltfinanzkrise hat sogar dazu geführt, dass sich Finanzmärkte teilweise wieder disintegrieren. Die Neubewertung der Rolle der Finanzintegration für Wirtschaftswachstum und Finanzstabilität scheint also von erheblicher Bedeutung, aus wirtschaftspolitischer Sicht ebenso wie für die akademische Forschung.
Diese Forschungsgruppe soll Antworten auf folgende Fragen suchen: Erstens untersucht die Gruppe, wie die Produktivität von Unternehmen vom Zugang zu internationalem Kapital beeinflusst wird und ob kapitalintensive Sektoren in besonderem Maße von der Liberalisierung des Kapitalverkehrs profitieren. Darüber hinaus untersucht diese Gruppe die strukturellen Transformationsfolgen der finanziellen Integration. Zweitens erreicht internationales Kapital die Realwirtschaft über die Vermittlung durch Finanzinstitute. Die Gruppe analysiert, ob der grenzüberschreitende Kapitalfluss das Verhalten der Banken ändert und insbesondere, wie die Finanzierungslaufzeit, die Struktur und das systemische Risiko beeinflusst werden. Drittens haben internationale Organisationen wie der IWF eine schrittweise Liberalisierung des Kapitalverkehrs vorgeschlagen. So soll die Liberalisierung der Kapitalimporte zeitlichen Vorrang haben vor derjenigen für Kapitalexporte, und die Liberalisierung von Direktinvestitionen soll vor derjenigen von Investitionen in Krediten und Wertpapieren kommen. Es gibt allerdings derzeit noch wenige empirische Arbeiten, die diese Empfehlungen stützen. Die Forschungsgruppe untersucht, ob und wie die Sequenzierung der Kapitalverkehrsliberalisierung für die finanzielle Stabilität von Bedeutung ist.
ForschungsclusterProduktivität und Institutionen
Household Indebtedness, Financial Frictions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy to Consumption: Evidence from China
in: Emerging Markets Review, im Erscheinen
This paper studies the impact of household indebtedness on the transmission of monetary policy to consumption using the Chinese household-level survey data. We employ a panel smooth transition regression model to investigate the non-linear role of indebtedness. We find that housing-related indebtedness weakens the monetary policy transmission, and this effect is non-linear as there is a much larger counteraction of consumption in response to monetary policy shocks when household indebtedness increases from a low level rather than from a high level. Moreover, the weakened monetary policy transmission from indebtedness is stronger in urban households than in rural households. This can be explained by the investment good characteristic of real estate in China.
Surges and Instability: The Maturity Shortening Channel
in: Journal of International Economics, im Erscheinen
Capital inflow surges destabilize the economy through a maturity shortening mechanism. The underlying reason is that firms have incentives to redeem their debt on demand to accommodate the potential liquidity needs of global investors, which makes international borrowing endogenously fragile. Based on a theoretical model and empirical evidence at both the firm and macro levels, our main findings are twofold. First, a significant association exists between surges and shortened corporate debt maturity, especially for firms with foreign bank relationships and higher redeployability. Second, the probability of a crisis following surges with a flattened yield curve is significantly higher than that following surges without one. Our study suggests that debt maturity is the key to understand the financial instability consequences of capital inflow bonanzas.
Total Factor Productivity Growth at the Firm-level: The Effects of Capital Account Liberalization
in: Journal of International Economics, im Erscheinen
This study provides firm-level evidence on the effect of capital account liberalization on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We find that a one standard deviation increase in the capital account openness indicator constructed by Fernández et al. (2016) is significantly associated with a 0.18 standard deviation increase in firms’ TFP growth rates. The productivity-enhancing effects are stronger for sectors with higher external finance dependence and capital-skill complementarity, and are persistent five years after liberalization. Moreover, we show that potential transmission mechanisms include improved financing conditions, greater skilled labor utilization, and technology upgrades. Finally, we document heterogeneous effects across firm size and tradability, and threshold effects with respect to the country's institutional quality.
Does Capital Account Liberalization Affect Income Inequality?
in: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Nr. 2, 2021
By adopting an identification strategy of difference‐in‐difference estimation combined with propensity score matching between liberalized and closed countries, this paper provides robust evidence that opening the capital account is associated with an increase in income inequality in developing countries. Specifically, capital account liberalization, in the long run, is associated with a reduction in the income share of the poorest half by 2.66–3.79% points and an increase in that of the richest 10% by 5.19–8.76% points. Moreover, directions and categories of capital account liberalization matter. The relationship is more pronounced when liberalizing inward and equity capital flows.
What Does Peer-to-Peer Lending Evidence Say About the Risk-taking Channel of Monetary Policy?
in: Journal of Corporate Finance, 2021
This paper uses loan application-level data from a peer-to-peer lending platform to study the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. By employing a direct ex-ante measure of risk-taking and estimating the simultaneous equations of loan approval and loan amount, we provide evidence of monetary policy's impact on a nonbank financial institution's risk-taking. We find that the search-for-yield is the main driving force of the risk-taking effect, while we do not observe consistent findings of risk-shifting from the liquidity change. Monetary policy easing is associated with a higher probability of granting loans to risky borrowers and greater riskiness of credit allocation. However, these changes do not necessarily relate to a larger loan amount on average.
BigTech Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission: Micro-level Evidence from China
in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 18, 2022
This paper studies monetary policy transmission through BigTech and traditional banks. By comparing business loans made by a BigTech bank with those made by traditional banks, it finds that BigTech credit amplifies monetary policy transmission mainly through the extensive margin. Specifically, the BigTech bank is more likely to grant credit to new borrowers compared with conventional banks in response to expansionary monetary policy. The BigTech bank‘s advantages in information, monitoring, and risk management are the potential mechanisms. In addition, monetary policy has a stronger impact on the real economy through BigTech lending.
Globalisation, Productivity Growth, and Labour Compensation
in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 7, 2022
Since the onset of globalisation, production activities have become increasingly fragmented and organised in global value chains (GVC). These networks facilitate trade in intermediaries across industrial sectors and countries and change the conditions for policies to respond to shocks. In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the effects of GVC on productivity and labour shares in advanced and emerging economies. As indicators for globalisation we use the foreign share in intermediate inputs and the foreign share in value added, extracted from international input output tables. Estimates based on local projections reveal a positive relationship between globalisation and productivity. Moreover, we are able to reject the hypothesis that a higher degree of international integration in country-industry pairs is negatively associated with the change in the labour share for advanced countries.
The Role of State-owned Banks in Crises: Evidence from German Banks During COVID-19
in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 6, 2022
By adopting a difference-in-differences specification combined with propensity score matching, I provide evidence using the microdata of German banks that stateowned savings banks have lent less than credit cooperatives during the COVID-19 crisis. In particular, the weaker lending effects of state-owned banks are pronounced for long-term and nonrevolving loans but insignificant for short-term and revolving loans. Moreover, the negative impact of government ownership is larger for borrowers who are more exposed to the COVID-19 shock and in regions where the ruling parties are longer in office and more positioned on the right side of the political spectrum.
How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Debt Maturity?
in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 5, 2022
This paper investigates whether and how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate debt maturity. Using a large firm-level dataset for four European countries, we find that an increase in economic policy uncertainty is significantly associated with a shortened debt maturity. Moreover, the impacts are stronger for innovation-intensive firms. We use firms’ flexibility in changing debt maturity and the deviation to leverage target to gauge the causal relationship, and identify the reduced investment and steepened term structure as the transmission mechanisms.
Technology Adoption and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission
in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 14, 2021
This paper studies whether and how banks‘ technology adoption affects the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission. We construct a new measurement of bank-level technology adoption, which can tell whether the technology is related to the bank‘s lending business and which specific technology is adopted. We find that lending-related technology adoption significantly strengthens the transmission of the bank lending channel, meanwhile, adopting technologies that are not related to lending activities significantly mitigates that. By technology categories, the adoption of cloud computing technology displays the largest impact on strengthening the bank lending channel. Moreover, higher exposure to BigTech competition is significantly associated with a weaker reaction to monetary policy shocks.