IWH-Bauumfrage
IWH-Bauumfrage Das IWH führte seit dem Jahr 1993 bis zum ersten Quartal 2017...
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IWH-Treuhanddatenbank
IWH-Treuhand-Mikrodatenbank ...
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IWH-FDI-Mikrodatenbank
IWH-FDI-Mikrodatenbank Die IWH-FDI-Mikrodatenbank (FDI = Foreign Direct Investment)...
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Vereintes Land – drei Jahrzehnte nach dem Mauerfall
Einzelveröffentlichungen,
2019
Abstract
Die Berliner Mauer als das Symbol der deutschen Teilung ist mittlerweile länger verschwunden als sie gestanden hat, doch die Unterschiede innerhalb des Landes sind auch nach drei Jahrzehnten noch sichtbar. Jüngste Forschungsergebnisse zeigen jedoch, dass die Bruchkante der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung nicht immer ausschließlich entlang der ehemaligen innerdeutschen Grenze verläuft, sondern neben dem West-Ost-Gefälle auch Süd-Nord- oder Stadt-Land-Unterschiede zutage treten.
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Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Sachsen-Anhalts seit 1990
Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner
R. Stöcker, M. Reichel (Hrsg.), Sachsen-Anhalt – eine politische Landeskunde. Halle (Saale): Mitteldeutscher Verlag,
2019
Abstract
Sachsen-Anhalt ist als mittelalterliches Zentrum der Ottonen und als Ursprungsland der Reformation ein »Kernland deutscher Geschichte« und besitzt deutschlandweit die meisten Weltkulturerbestätten. Doch nicht nur historisch und kulturell hat das Land viel zu bieten, auch gesellschaftlich und politisch ist es einen genaueren Blick wert. Die Landeskunde soll diese Facetten des Bundeslandes beleuchten. In 16 aufschlussreichen Beiträgen erfährt der Leser, was Sachsen-Anhalt ausmacht, bewegt und prägt. Ein Anhang listet die Regierungen des Bundeslandes von 1990 bis 2017 auf.
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An Evaluation of Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises: Does Machine Learning Improve Predictions?
Johannes Beutel, Sophia List, Gregor von Schweinitz
Abstract
This paper compares the out-of-sample predictive performance of different early warning models for systemic banking crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several machine learning approaches recently proposed in the literature. We find that while machine learning methods often attain a very high in-sample fit, they are outperformed by the logit approach in recursive out-of-sample evaluations. This result is robust to the choice of performance measure, crisis definition, preference parameter, and sample length, as well as to using different sets of variables and data transformations. Thus, our paper suggests that further enhancements to machine learning early warning models are needed before they are able to offer a substantial value-added for predicting systemic banking crises. Conventional logit models appear to use the available information already fairly effciently, and would for instance have been able to predict the 2007/2008 financial crisis out-of-sample for many countries. In line with economic intuition, these models identify credit expansions, asset price booms and external imbalances as key predictors of systemic banking crises.
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Spatial Development Patterns in East Germany and the Policy to Maintain “Industrial Cores”
Gerhard Heimpold
H.-G. Jeong, G. Heimpold (Hrsg.), Economic Development after German Unification and Implications for Korea. Policy References 18-08. Sejong: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy,
2018
Abstract
This paper investigates the intra-regional development patterns in East Germany with particular reference to the manufacturing sector. When East Germany’s economy was ruled by the central planning regime, the share of industrial workforce in total employment was the greatest in entire Europe. It exceeded the respective value in the Soviet Union at that time. When the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy occurred, the East German manufacturing sector faced the greatest challenges.
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Decision Making by the Treuhandanstalt on Privatization, Restructuring, or Liquidation of Former State-owned Firms in East Germany
Gerhard Heimpold
H.-G. Jeong, G. Heimpold (Hrsg.), Economic Development after German Unification and Implications for Korea. Policy References 18-08. Sejong: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy,
2018
Abstract
Subject to this paper is the decision making by Treuhandanstalt on privatization, restructuring, or liquidation of former state-owned firms in East Germany. To explain: the Treuhandanstalt was the agency at the Federal level tasked with the privatization of the former state-owned firms of the GDR. All former state-owned firms were assigned to the Treuhandanstalt in mid-1990. The notion of Treuhand firms (“Treuhandfirmen”) will be used to characterize this type of firms.
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Economic Development after German Unification and Implications for Korea
Hyung-Gon Jeong, Gerhard Heimpold
H.-G. Jeong, G. Heimpold (Hrsg.), Economic Development after German Unification and Implications for Korea. Policy References 18-08. Sejong: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy,
2018
Abstract
The situation on the Korean Peninsula entered a new phase following the 2018 Winter Olympics, further evolving through the April 27 inter-Korean summit and June 12 Singapore summit between the U.S. and North Korea. Expectations are high for new exchanges and cooperation that would potentially lead to peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula. This would be a great chance to depart from hostility that has lasted over decades. However, it is expected to take some time until economic cooperation between the two Koreas resumes, as the negotiations for denuclearization still remain unresolved.
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Reports des European Forecasting Network (EFN)
Reports des European Forecasting Network (EFN) Das European Forecasting Network...
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