Nowcasting East German GDP Growth: a MIDAS Approach
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.
Determinants of Foreign Technological Activity in German Regions – A Count Model Analysis of Transnational Patents
Most research on R&D internationalisation focuses on comparative analysis of location factors at the national level of analysis. Very little work, however, has taken place in this field for the sub-national regional location behavior of multi-national enterprises (MNE). The paper contributes to the existing research by providing evidence on the determinants of foreign technological activities at the sub-national level for Germany, which hosts the largest share of foreign R&D within the EU27 and features the highest cross-regional dispersion of patented research. Using a pooled count data model, we estimate the effect of various sources for externalities on the extent of foreign technological activity across regions. Particular attention is paid to the role of local knowledge spillovers, technological specialization and diversification. We differentiate foreign and domestic sources of specialisation and account for region and sector-specific influences. This is the first time that the ‘cross-border-ownership’ principle to measure R&D internationalisation is combined with regionalised patent information.
To verify our findings we develop hypotheses. In particular, we expect and find that foreign technological activity is attracted by technologically specialised sectors of regions. In contrast to current empirical work, this effect applies both to foreign as well as domestic sources of specialization, although effects on foreign specialization seem more significant. We expect and find the same for science-industry spillovers. We postulate a negative impact of domestic specialization on foreign technological activities and a strong positive effect from diversificationspillovers, by comparison with specialisation spillovers, but these hypotheses are rejected. We find that the direction of the specialisation effect depends on dominance in the position of domestic firms as well as on the balance of knowledge flows between them and foreign actors.
A Macroeconomist’s View on EU Governance Reform: Why and How to Establish Policy Coordination?
This paper discusses the need for macroeconomic policy coordination in the E(M)U. Coordination of national policies with cross-border effects does not exist at the macroeconomic level, although requested by the EU Treaty. The need for coordination stems from current account imbalances, which origin in market-induced capital flows, destabilizing the real exchange rates between low and high wage countries. The recent attempts of the Commission and the European Council to reform E(M)U governance do not address this problem and thus remain incapable to protect against future instability.
Volkswirtschaftliche Bilanzen in SBZ und DDR
Kategorien der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen,
Der Beitrag zeigt die von ehemaligen Mitarbeitern aus dem Statistischen Reichsamt in den ersten Nachkriegsjahren eingebrachten Überlegungen zu einer volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung in der Sowjetischen Besatzungszone sowie den Bruch, der nach der Gründung der DDR mit dem Übergang auf das Gesamtrechnungssystem sowjetischer Prägung (MPS) stattgefunden hat. Er begründet und dokumentiert den wirtschaftspolitisch motivierten Aufstieg der amtlichen Berechnung des Nationaleinkommens in der DDR aus dem Schatten der Bruttoproduktermittlung zum Kernbereich eines Bilanzsystems, mit dem die verschiedenen Seiten des volkswirtschaftlichen Kreislaufs abgebildet werden, sowie ihre in den letzten Jahren der DDR vollzogene Erweiterung zur Berechnung eines Bruttoinlandsprodukts nach SNA (System of National Accounts)-Konzept.
Shrinking due to corpulence? BMI in childhood predicts subsequent linear growth among US children and youth, 1963-1970
Annals of Human Biology,
While the USA is one of the most opulent countries, its population is not among the tallest but is among the most corpulent. This short report investigates the association between body mass index in childhood and subsequent change in height-for-age at the individual level, based on data from the National Health Examination Study (1963-1970). A sub-sample of participants in this survey was measured twice at intervals between 2.3 and 4.4 years, and assessed bone age can be used to account for differences in maturation at baseline. Regression results indicate that a BMI-for-age above the 85th percentile is associated with a reduction in growth by 0.03-0.06 height-for-age standard deviations per year, or roughly 1 cm within 4 years. An inefficiently high nutritional status in childhood may thus jeopardize subsequent linear growth. However, the trans-Atlantic height gap is considerably larger than what this empirical relationship could predict.
Factors accounting for the enactment of a competition law – an empirical analysis
The paper is concerned with the factors that account for decisions to enact a national competition law. In a first step, the paper updates and enlarges the existing data bases of countries that have enacted a competition law. The paper then identifies and discusses possible factors that influence the decision to enact a competition law. In a third step, the method of panel-data logit analysis is employed to test a set of hypothesis pertaining to the factors across the time dimension and across countries. The results of this analysis are interpreted in terms of significance and in terms of the sign of their influence on the probability of a country to enact. Given generality of the analysis, the results can shed light on the probability of individual countries, and in particular developing countries, to actually take the step of enactment.
Does Social Capital Matter in Corporate Decisions? Evidence from Corporate Tax Avoidance ...
Evolving Structural Patterns in the Enlarging European Division of Labour: Sectoral and Branch Specialisation and the Potentials for Closing the Productivity Gap
This report summarises the results generated in empirical analysis within a larger EU 5th FP RTD-project on the determinants of productivity gaps between the current EU-15 and accession states in Central East Europe. The focus of research in this part of the project is on sectoral specialisation patterns emerging as a result of intensifying integration between the current EU and a selection of six newly acceding economies, namely Estonia, Poland, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Slovenia. The research-leading question is concerned with the role played by the respective specialisation patterns for (i) the explanation of observed productivity gaps and for (ii) the projection of future potentials of productivity growth in Central East Europe.
For the aggregated level, analysis determines the share of national productivity gaps accountable to acceding countries’ particular sectoral patterns, and their role for aggregate productivity growth: in Poland, the Slovak Republic and Hungary, sectoral shares of national productivity gaps are considerable and might evolve into a ‘barrier’ to productivity catch-up.Moreover, past productivity growth was dominated by a downward adjustment in employment rather than structural change. With the industrial sector of manufacturing having been identified as the main source of national productivity gaps and growth, the subsequent analysis focuses on the role of industrial specialisation patterns and develops an empirical model to project future productivity growth potentials. Each chapter closes with some policy conclusions.