Evolving Structural Patterns in the Enlarging European Division of Labour: Sectoral and Branch Specialisation and the Potentials for Closing the Productivity Gap
Johannes Stephan
IWH-Sonderhefte,
Nr. 5,
2003
Abstract
This report summarises the results generated in empirical analysis within a larger EU 5th FP RTD-project on the determinants of productivity gaps between the current EU-15 and accession states in Central East Europe. The focus of research in this part of the project is on sectoral specialisation patterns emerging as a result of intensifying integration between the current EU and a selection of six newly acceding economies, namely Estonia, Poland, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Slovenia. The research-leading question is concerned with the role played by the respective specialisation patterns for (i) the explanation of observed productivity gaps and for (ii) the projection of future potentials of productivity growth in Central East Europe.
For the aggregated level, analysis determines the share of national productivity gaps accountable to acceding countries’ particular sectoral patterns, and their role for aggregate productivity growth: in Poland, the Slovak Republic and Hungary, sectoral shares of national productivity gaps are considerable and might evolve into a ‘barrier’ to productivity catch-up.Moreover, past productivity growth was dominated by a downward adjustment in employment rather than structural change. With the industrial sector of manufacturing having been identified as the main source of national productivity gaps and growth, the subsequent analysis focuses on the role of industrial specialisation patterns and develops an empirical model to project future productivity growth potentials. Each chapter closes with some policy conclusions.
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EU Eastern Enlargement and Structural Change: Specialization Patterns in Accession Countries and Economic Dynamics in the Single Market
Albrecht Kauffmann, P. J. J. Welfens, A. Jungmittag, C. Schumann
Diskussionsbeiträge des Europäischen Instituts für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW), Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Nr. 106,
Nr. 106,
2003
Abstract
Der Beitrag untersucht Kernfragen des Strukturwandels und der Spezialisierungsmuster in den Volkswirtschaften der erweiterten Europäischen Union. In allen Transformationsländern wurden, gemessen an Beschäftigung und Produktivität, Verschiebungen von landwirtschaftlichen und industriellen Sektor hin zum Dienstleistungssektor beobachtet – z.T. mit späteren Reindustrialisierungsphasen. Während einige Ländern, insbesondere Tschechien, Ungarn, die Slowakei, Polen, Estland und Slowenien ihre Produktivität in mittleren technologieintensiven Bereichen verbessert haben und die Technologieleiter aufwärts steigen können, bleiben andere bei einer Struktur mit vielen arbeitsintensiven Zweigen. Im Kontext der EU-Erweiterung sind handelsschaffende Effekte – insbesondere in Verbindung mit einem Anstieg des intra-industriellen Handels – und verstärkte Direktinvestitionen zu erwarten. Alle beteiligten Länder müssen sich gemäß ihren komparativen Vorteilen spezialisieren, allerdings können staatliche F&E-Ausgaben sowie Bildungsanstrengungen auf die Entwicklung solcher Vorteile Einfluss nehmen. Die Gerschenkron-Hypothese postuliert für die Beitrittsländer einen „Vorteil der Rückständigkeit“. Da diese Länder in der ersten Transformationsphase niedrige F&E-Intensitäten in der ersten Transformationsphase aufweisen, ist die Modernisierung des Bildungs- und Forschungssektors wesentlich. Für die EU-15 als Ganzes wird ein Erweiterungsgewinn erwartet, aber die Vorteile werden sich über die Länder hinweg unterschiedlich darstellen, da die ökonomische Geografie eine Rolle spielt. Österreich, Deutschland, die skandinavischen Länder, die Niederlande, Italien und Frankreich werden voraussichtlich stärker von der Erweiterung profitieren als die anderen Mitglieder der EU-15. Deutschland und Österreich spielen zusätzlich eine wichtige Rolle als Ursprungsländer für Direktinvestitionen. Es gibt noch einen erheblichen Forschungsbedarf bezüglich Ausmaß und Richtung des Strukturwandels.
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Recent Developments and Risks in the Euro Area Banking Sector
Reint E. Gropp, Jukka M. Vesala
ECB Monthly Bulletin,
2002
Abstract
This article provides an overview of euro area banks’ exposure to risk and examines the effects of the cyclical downturn in 2001. It describes the extent to which euro area banks’ risk profile has changed as a result of recent structural developments, such as an increase in investment banking, mergers, securitisation and more sophisticated risk management techniques. The article stresses that the environment in which banks operated in 2001 was fairly complex due to the relatively weak economic performance of all major economies as well as the events of 11 September in the United States. It evaluates the effects of these adverse circumstances on banks’ stability and overall performance. The article provides bank balance sheet information as well as financial market prices, arguing that the latter may be useful when assessing the soundness of the banking sector in a forward-looking manner. It concludes with a review of the overall stability of euro area banks, pointing to robustness in the face of the adverse developments in 2001 and the somewhat improved forward-looking indicators of banks’ financial strength in early 2002.
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Macroeconomic Modelling of the German Economy in the Framework of Euroland
Rüdiger Pohl, Heinz P. Galler
Schriften des IWH,
Nr. 11,
2002
Abstract
An attempt to develop a new macroeconometric model for Germany is confronted with several questions that range from the general rationality of such an approach to specific problems of an appropriate model structure. One important aspect of this discussion is the introduction of the Euro as a common currency of the European monetary union. This institutional change may result in structural breaks due to changing behavior of economic agents. In addition, the definition of the spatial unit that is appropriate for modelling becomes a problem. Additional problems come from the introduction of the European Single Market and the increasing international economic integration not only within the European union but also beyond its borders. And in the case of Germany, the unification of the West and the East demand special attention. Last but not least, the harmonization of national accounting for the member states of the European Union has to be dealt with. Thus, the introduction of the Euro as a common currency is just one problem besides others that must be addressed.
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EU-Integration and Development - Prospects of CEECs - The Productivity-Gap and Technological Structural Change
Johannes Stephan
IWH-Diskussionspapiere,
Nr. 112,
2000
Abstract
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Labor Market Analysis and Public Policy: The Case of Morocco
Guillermo Hakim, Julia Lane, Javier Miranda
World Bank Economic Review,
Nr. 3,
1999
Abstract
This article uses detailed industry and household data to understand why Morocco's labor market performed poorly in 1985–95. The data indicate that marked structural changes and weak demand in the product market were responsible. This article makes two contributions to the literature. The first is specific: it underscores that the demand for labor is a derived demand and that the performance of the product market is an important determinant of the performance of the labor market. The second is more general: it demonstrates that this kind of microeconomic analysis, using data sets that are often available in developing countries, can inform policy design.
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The Role of Real Exchange Rates in the Central European Transformation
Lucjan T. Orlowski
Forschungsreihe,
Nr. 1,
1998
Abstract
The study eamines the interactions between real exchange rates, current accounts and capital account balances in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The empirical investigation leads to a strong endorsement of more flexible exchange rates in the present stage of the economic transformation process of the former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Exchange rate flexibility allows more independent monetary policies that focus on financing structural adjustments and institutional changes in transition economies. However, the integration process with the European Union and more remote considerations of possible accession to the European Monetary Union will require a gradual move to fixed exchange rates and to an exchangerate-based monetary policy.
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Changing Structures, Functions, and Townscape. The Transformation of a Middle-Sized City in Thuringia
Peter Franz, Inge Cornelsen, Ulfert Herlyn
Netherlands Journal of Housing and the Built Environment,
1995
Abstract
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Structural Changes in Trade Relations between the European Union and Central and Eastern Europe since 1991
Klaus Werner
Externe Publikationen,
1995
Abstract
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A Spatial Approach to Structural Change: The Making of the French Hexagon
Ulrich Blum, Leonard Dudley
Journal of Economic History,
1989
Abstract
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