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Assessing European Competitiveness: the Contribution of CompNet Research

Filippo di Mauro, Maddalena Ronchi
CompNet Report, June 2015
Abstract
Restoring competitiveness is broadly acknowledged as the critical building block for achieving sustainable growth, but defining competitiveness, both in terms of tools as well as objectives, is a matter of debate. The Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet) adopts a pragmatic approach, defining “a competitive economy [as] one in which institutional and macroeconomic conditions allow productive firms to thrive… [thus supporting] the expansion of employment, investment and trade” (Draghi, 2012). This approach requires handling (i) firm-level features, most notably productivity, (ii) macroeconomic factors, and (iii) cross-border aspects related to the operation of global value chains (GVCs). While at first concentrating solely on the original mandate of explaining export competitiveness, the Network has extended the scope of its research to broader aspects related to productivity drivers.
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Do Manufacturing Firms Benefit from Services FDI? – Evidence from Six New EU Member States

J. Damijan, Crt Kostevc, Philipp Marek, Matija Rojec
IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 5, 2015
Abstract
This paper focuses on the effect of foreign presence in the services sector on the productivity growth of downstream customers in the manufacturing sector in six EU new member countries in the course of their accession to the European Union. For this purpose, the analysis combines firm-level information, data on economic structures and annual national input-output tables. The findings suggest that services FDI may enhance productivity of manufacturing firms in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries through vertical forward spillovers, and thereby contribute to their competitiveness. The consideration of firm characteristics shows that the magnitude of spillover effects depends on size, ownership structure, and initial productivity level of downstream firms as well as on the diverging technological intensity across sector on the supply and demand side. The results suggest that services FDI foster productivity of domestic rather than foreign controlled firms in the host economy. For the period between 2003 and 2008, the findings suggest that the increasing share of services provided by foreign affiliates enhanced the productivity growth of domestic firms in manufacturing by 0.16%. Furthermore, the firms’ absorptive capability and the size reduce the spillover effect of services FDI on the productivity of manufacturing firms. A sectoral distinction shows that firms at the end of the value chain experience a larger productivity growth through services FDI, whereas the aggregate positive effect seems to be driven by FDI in energy supply. This does not hold for science-based industries, which are spurred by foreign presence in knowledge-intensive business services.
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EFN Report Winter 2014/15: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2015 and 2016

EFN Reports, Nr. 1, 2015
Abstract
At the beginning of the year 2015 crude oil is, with little more than 50 dollars per barrel (Brent), about 50% cheaper than in the summer 2014. The oil price hike is a stimulus for the whole world economy, even though the gains of energy users are matched by losses of the suppliers: oil producing countries frequently run high current account surpluses vis-à-vis the rest of the world. It is therefore plausible to assume that, reacting to the redistribution of incomes, the oil user countries will increase their spending by more than what will be lost in spending by producers. Investment activity in the euro area has recently been particularly weak. Remarkably, investment in Greece, Portugal, and Spain, i.e. in countries that had to accept international support during the euro crisis, has strengthened. The setback took place in the so-called core countries, including Germany. Consumption growth was also subdued. Lower oil prices, by increasing real incomes of consumers and lowering production costs for firms, should increase private consumption and, in particular, investment. Moreover, the depreciation of the euro will favour exports. Overall, according to our forecasts, the euro area GDP will grow by 1.3% in 2015 and by 1.6% in 2016. GDP growth is about 0.3 percentage points higher due to the impact of lower oil prices in 2015. However, these forecasts are subject to substantial uncertainty, and we do not see any significant reduction of the unemployment rate during the forecasting horizon. Our inflation forecast for 2015 is 0.3%, with the possibility of a mild deflation not excluded. In 2016 inflation will increase up to 1.1%, still clearly below the 2% ECB’s target. This calls for further monetary expansion, though its effects could be limited in the absence of a complementary fiscal stimulus. The expansionary cyclical policies should be combined with more structural reforms to enhance the competitiveness of the euro area and its growth potential, which in our forecasts remains quite limited. In fact, we expect potential output to grow by only 0.4% both in 2015 and 2016.
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Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity

Steven J. Davis, John Haltiwanger, Kyle Handley, Ron S. Jarmin, Josh Lerner, Javier Miranda
American Economic Review, Nr. 12, 2014
Abstract
Private equity critics claim that leveraged buyouts bring huge job losses and few gains in operating performance. To evaluate these claims, we construct and analyze a new dataset that covers US buyouts from 1980 to 2005. We track 3,200 target firms and their 150,000 establishments before and after acquisition, comparing to controls defined by industry, size, age, and prior growth. Buyouts lead to modest net job losses but large increases in gross job creation and destruction. Buyouts also bring TFP gains at target firms, mainly through accelerated exit of less productive establishments and greater entry of highly productive ones.
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Financial Stability and Central Bank Governance

Michael Koetter, Kasper Roszbach, G. Spagnolo
International Journal of Central Banking, Nr. 4, 2014
Abstract
The financial crisis has ignited a debate about the appropriate objectives and the governance structure of Central Banks. We use novel survey data to investigate the relation between these traits and banking system stability focusing in particular on their role in micro-prudential supervision. We find that the separation of powers between single and multiple bank supervisors cannot explain credit risk prior or during the financial crisis. Similarly, a large number of Central Bank governance traits do not correlate with system fragility. Only the objective of currency stability exhibits a significant relation with non-performing loan levels in the run-up to the crisis. This effect is amplified for those countries with most frequent exposure to IMF missions in the past. Our results suggest that the current policy discussion whether to centralize prudential supervision under the Central Bank and the ensuing institutional changes some countries are enacting may not produce the improvements authorities are aiming at. Whether other potential improvements in prudential supervision due to, for example, external disciplinary devices, such as IMF conditional lending schemes, are better suited to increase financial stability requires further research.
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EFN Report Autumn 2014: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2014 and 2015

, 2014
Abstract
In autumn 2014, world production continues to be expanding at a moderate rate, a bit faster than at the beginning of the year. A strong upswing of the world economy is, however, not in sight: the US upswing continues but is not probable to gain more pace, and the Chinese economy has to cope with severe problems in the financial and the housing sector. Important conditions for a stronger recovery are in place: the fall in financing costs allows euro area governments to conduct fiscal policies that are, on average, clearly less restrictive than in the years before, and nonfinancial firms benefit from a shrinking burden of interest payments. Interest rates for bank credit in the southern economies are now slowly going down. However, the recovery will stay sluggish as long as firms and households lack confidence in the economic policy of important member states. In fact, economic confidence in the euro area declined somewhat during summer in part due to news on the conflict between Russia and the west, although only about 5% of all exports leaving the euro area go to Russia or Ukraine. Production growth in the euro area slowed down to stagnation in the second quarter, mainly due to a decline in Germany related to a weather effect. Demand in the rest of the euro area continued to slowly expand. In this context, we forecast that the euro area economy will expand by 1.3% in 2015, after 0.9% in 2014. For 2014 and 2015, we do not see any significant reduction of the unemployment rate, because employment dynamics will stay weak due to subdued growth and the still rising participation rate in the euro area. Our inflation forecast for 2014 is 0.5%. In 2015 inflation will also remain subdued, at about 1.1%.
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EFN Report Summer 2014: Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2014 and 2015

, 2014
Abstract
World growth disappointed at the beginning of the year, when in the US extremely cold weather caused production to contract, the recovery in the euro area stumbled and the slowdown of the Chinese economy continued. At present, however, confidence indicators and order books point to a moderate pickup of growth in most regions. Prices on markets for energy, real and financial assets have reacted little to recent bad news about rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe up to now. A sudden increase of risk aversion or a change of believes among investors could trigger a swift deterioration of financial conditions for the world economy. In the euro area, strong stimuli from abroad are not to be expected and private households continue to keep their real spending about constant. Investment has been expanding since summer 2013, but at a very moderate rate. In this context, our forecast for GDP growth is 1.1% in 2014 and 1.6% in 2015. For 2014 and 2015, we do not see any significant reduction of the unemployment rate, because employment dynamics will stay weak due to subdued growth and the still rising participation rate in the euro area. Our inflation forecast for 2014 is 0.6%. In 2015 inflation will also remain subdued, at about 1.0%. In this context of very low price dynamics, monetary policy keeps the recovery alive: official interest rates around zero and the search for yields on financial markets have depressed yields for government bonds; the fall in financing costs allows euro area governments to conduct fiscal policies that are much less restrictive than in the years before, with tax cuts in Italy, France, and Spain starting this year. Nonfinancial firms benefit from a shrinking burden of interest payments, and the availability of bank loans for small and medium enterprises has improved since 2012 in most countries.
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Spillover Effects among Financial Institutions: A State-dependent Sensitivity Value-at-Risk Approach

Z. Adams, R. Füss, Reint E. Gropp
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Nr. 3, 2014
Abstract
In this paper, we develop a state-dependent sensitivity value-at-risk (SDSVaR) approach that enables us to quantify the direction, size, and duration of risk spillovers among financial institutions as a function of the state of financial markets (tranquil, normal, and volatile). For four sets of major financial institutions (commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies) we show that while small during normal times, equivalent shocks lead to considerable spillover effects in volatile market periods. Commercial banks and, especially, hedge funds appear to play a major role in the transmission of shocks to other financial institutions.
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Plant-based Bioeconomy in Central Germany - Mapping of Actors, Industries and Places

Wilfried Ehrenfeld, Frieder Kropfhäußer
IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 7, 2014
publiziert in: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management
Abstract
The challenges facing the 21st century, presented by a growing global population, range from food security to sustainable energy supplies to the diminishing availability of fossil raw materials. An attempt to solve these problems is made by using the concept of bioeconomy. Plants, in particular, possess an important function in this context - they can be used either as a source of food or, in the form of biomass, for industrial or energy purposes. Linking industrial and agricultural research and production, bioeconomy provides growth potential, in particular in rural areas. The aim of this article is therefore to outline the status of plant-based bioeconomy in three states of Central Germany - Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia - and to compare this to German plant-based bioeconomy. We take an in-depth look at the different sectors and outline the industries involved, the location and age of the enterprises as well as the distribution of important NACE codes. In conclusion, we highlight the significant number of new or small enterprises and the high research and innovation rate of Central Germany. We also stress the future potential of Central German plant-based bioeconomy as well as the importance of a more plant-focusedview of the technology sector.
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Is More Finance Better? Disentangling Intermediation and Size Effects of Financial Systems

Thorsten Beck, Hans Degryse, Christiane Kneer
Journal of Financial Stability, 2014
Abstract
Financial systems all over the world have grown dramatically over recent decades. But is more finance necessarily better? And what concept of financial system – a focus on its size, including both intermediation and other auxiliary “non-intermediation” activities, or a focus on traditional intermediation activity – is relevant for its impact on real sector outcomes? This paper assesses the relationship between the size of the financial system and intermediation, on the one hand, and GDP per capita growth and growth volatility, on the other hand. Based on a sample of 77 countries for the period 1980–2007, we find that intermediation activities increase growth and reduce volatility in the long run. An expansion of the financial sectors along other dimensions has no long-run effect on real sector outcomes. Over shorter time horizons a large financial sector stimulates growth at the cost of higher volatility in high-income countries. Intermediation activities stabilize the economy in the medium run especially in low-income countries. As this is an initial exploration of the link between financial system indicators and growth and volatility, we focus on OLS regressions, leaving issues of endogeneity and omitted variable biases for future research.
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