Globalization, Productivity Growth, and Labor Compensation
Christian Dreger, Marius Fourné, Oliver Holtemöller
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 7,
2022
Abstract
We analyze how changes in international trade integration affect productivity and the functional income distribution. To account for endogeneity, we construct a leaveout measure for international trade integration for country-industry pairs using international input-output tables. Our findings corroborate on the country-industry level that international trade integration increases productivity. Moreover, we show that both trade in intermediate inputs and trade in value added is associated with lower labor shares in emerging markets. For advanced countries, we document a positive effect of trade in value added on the labor share of income. Further, we show that the effects on productivity and labor share are heterogeneous across different sectors. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for a possible throwback in international trade integration due to experiences from recent crises.
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Same, but Different: Testing Monetary Policy Shock Measures
Alexander Kriwoluzky, Stephanie Ettmeier
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 9,
2017
Abstract
In this study, we test whether three popular measures for monetary policy, that is, Romer and Romer (2004), Barakchian and Crowe (2013), and Gertler and Karadi (2015), constitute suitable proxy variables for monetary policy shocks. To this end, we employ different test statistics used in the literature to detect weak proxy variables. We find that the measure derived by Gertler and Karadi (2015) is the most suitable in this regard.
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Measuring Market Expectations
Christiane Baumeister
Handbook of Economic Expectations,
November
2022
Abstract
Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants' expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market's rational assessment of future price and policy developments. This paper reviews empirical approaches for recovering market-based expectations. It starts by laying out the two canonical modeling frameworks that form the backbone for estimating risk premia and highlights the proliferation of risk pricing factors that result in a wide range of different asset-price-based expectation measures. It then describes a key methodological innovation to evaluate the empirical plausibility of risk premium estimates and to identify the most accurate market-based expectation measure. The usefulness of this general approach is illustrated for price expectations in the global oil market. Then, the paper provides an overview of the body of empirical evidence for monetary policy and inflation expectations with a special emphasis on market-specific characteristics that complicate the quest for the best possible market-based expectation measure. Finally, it discusses a number of economic applications where market expectations play a key role for evaluating economic models, guiding policy analysis, and deriving shock measures.
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Uncovered Workers in Plants Covered by Collective Bargaining: Who Are They and How Do They Fare?
Boris Hirsch, Philipp Lentge, Claus Schnabel
Abstract
In Germany, employers used to pay union members and non-members in a plant the same union wage in order to prevent workers from joining unions. Using recent administrative data, we investigate which workers in firms covered by collective bargaining agreements still individually benefit from these union agreements, which workers are not covered anymore, and what this means for their wages. We show that about 9 percent of workers in plants with collective agreements do not enjoy individual coverage (and thus the union wage) anymore. Econometric analyses with unconditional quantile regressions and firm-fixed-effects estimations demonstrate that not being individually covered by a collective agreement has serious wage implications for most workers. Low-wage non-union workers and those at low hierarchy levels particularly suffer since employers abstain from extending union wages to them in order to pay lower wages. This jeopardizes unions' goal of protecting all disadvantaged workers.
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IWH-Tarif-Check: Aktuelle Tarifabschlüsse bedeuten Reallohnverluste 2024
Oliver Holtemöller, Birgit Schultz
IWH-Tarif-Check,
Nr. 2,
2023
Abstract
*** Vergleich der Tariflohnabschlüsse von Chemischer Industrie, Deutscher Post, Metall- und Elektroindustrie und öffentlichem Dienst von Bund und Kommunen *** Die hohe Verbraucherpreisinflation hat den Lohndruck bei den Tarifverhandlungen stark erhöht. Das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) hat die Lohnabschlüsse für vier ausgewählte Branchen, die sich im vergangenen Halbjahr auf Neuabschlüsse geeinigt haben, verglichen. Dabei zeigen sich hohe nominale Lohnsteigerungen. Insbesondere die Inflationsausgleichsprämie, die in allen vier Branchen bis zur maximalen Höhe von 3000 Euro vereinbart wurde, lässt die Bruttolöhne kräftig steigen. In der Chemischen Industrie, in der es bereits in der vergangenen Lohnrunde eine hohe Einmalzahlung gab, füllt die vereinbarte Inflationsausgleichszahlung diese Lücke.
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Uncovered Workers in Plants Covered by Collective Bargaining: Who Are They and How Do They Fare?
Boris Hirsch, Philipp Lentge, Claus Schnabel
British Journal of Industrial Relations,
Nr. 4,
2022
Abstract
Abstract In Germany, employers used to pay union members and non-members in a plant the same union wage in order to prevent workers from joining unions. Using recent administrative data, we investigate which workers in firms covered by collective bargaining agreements still individually benefit from these union agreements, which workers are not covered anymore and what this means for their wages. We show that about 9 per cent of workers in plants with collective agreements do not enjoy individual coverage (and thus the union wage) anymore. Econometric analyses with unconditional quantile regressions and firm-fixed-effects estimations demonstrate that not being individually covered by a collective agreement has serious wage implications for most workers. Low-wage non-union workers and those at low hierarchy levels particularly suffer since employers abstain from extending union wages to them in order to pay lower wages. This jeopardizes unions' goal of protecting all disadvantaged workers.
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Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe
Hannes Böhm, Julia Schaumburg, Lena Tonzer
IMF Economic Review,
December
2022
Abstract
We analyze whether financial integration leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of the spillover intensity at each point in time. For a financial network of ten European countries from 1996 to 2017, we find that the spillover effects are positive on average and much larger during periods of financial stress, pointing towards stronger business cycle synchronization. Dismantling GDP growth into value added growth of ten major industries, we observe that spillover intensities vary significantly. The findings are robust to a variety of alternative model specifications.
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Global Political Ties and the Global Financial Cycle
Gene Ambrocio, Iftekhar Hasan, Xiang Li
IWH Discussion Papers,
Nr. 23,
2023
Abstract
We study the implications of forging stronger political ties with the US on the sensitivities of stock returns around the world to a global common factor – the global financial cycle. Using voting patterns at the United Nations as a measure of political ties with the US along with various measures of the global financial cycle, we document evidence indicating that stronger political ties with the US amplify the sensitivities of stock returns in developing countries to the global financial cycle. We explore several channels and find that a deepening of financial linkages along with a reduction in information asymmetries and an amplification of sentiment are potentially important factors behind this result.
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Wirtschaftswachstum, Staatsfinanzen und Treibhausgas-Emissionen in der mittleren Frist
Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Alessandro Sardone, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
Nr. 4,
2022
Abstract
Die mittelfristige Projektion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lage in Deutschland beinhaltet, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum mit 1% pro Jahr in den kommenden sechs Jahren in etwa genauso hoch ausfällt wie in den vergangenen sechs Jahren. Der Staatshaushalt bleibt im Defizit, aber der Schuldenstand geht relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt ab dem Jahr 2024 wieder zurück. Bei diesem Tempo der wirtschaftlichen Expansion werden die Emissionen mittelfristig zwar weiter zurückgehen, aber deutlich langsamer als nötig, um die nationalen Klimaschutzziele zu erreichen.
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