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Professor Dr. Stefan Eichler

Professor Dr. Stefan Eichler
Aktuelle Position

seit 4/14

Leiter der Forschungsgruppe Marktstrukturen im Finanzsektor und Finanzstabilität

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

seit 10/16

Professor für International Monetary Economics

Technische Universität Dresden

seit 4/14

Mitglied der Abteilung Finanzmärkte

Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)

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Forschungsschwerpunkte
  • Finanzkrisen
  • Geldpolitik
  • Wechselkurse
  • internationale Investitionen

Seit Oktober 2016 ist Stefan Eichler Professor für Internationale Monetäre Ökonomik an der Technischen Universität Dresden. Seit April 2014 ist er Mitglied der Abteilung Finanzmärkte am IWH. Er forscht zu den Themen Marktstrukturen im Finanzsektor und Finanzstabilität.

Nach seinem Studium der Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Technischen Universität Chemnitz und der Technischen Universität Dresden promovierte Stefan Eichler an der Technischen Universität Dresden. Bevor er zum IWH kam, war er Lehrstuhlvertreter an der Technischen Universität Dresden, Juniorprofessor für International Macroeconomics and Finance an der Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg sowie Professor für Geld und Internationale Finanzwirtschaft an der Leibniz Universität Hannover.

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Professor Dr. Stefan Eichler
Professor Dr. Stefan Eichler
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Publikationen

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What Drives the Commodity-Sovereign Risk Dependence in Emerging Market Economies?

Hannes Böhm Stefan Eichler Stefan Gießler

in: Journal of International Money and Finance, March 2021

Abstract

Using daily data for 34 emerging markets in the period 1994–2016, we find robust evidence that higher export commodity prices are associated with lower sovereign default risk, as measured by lower EMBI spreads. The economic effect is especially pronounced for heavy commodity exporters. Examining the drivers, we find that, first, commodity dependence is higher for countries that export large volumes of commodities, whereas other portfolio characteristics like volatility or concentration are less important. Second, commodity-sovereign risk dependence increases in times of recessions and expansionary U.S. monetary policy. Third, the importance of raw material prices for sovereign financing can likely be mitigated if a country improves institutions and tax systems, attracts FDI inflows, invests in manufacturing, machinery and infrastructure, builds up reserve assets and opens capital and trade accounts. Fourth, the country’s government indebtedness or amount of received development assistance appear to be only of secondary importance for commodity dependence.

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Avoiding the Fall into the Loop: Isolating the Transmission of Bank-to-Sovereign Distress in the Euro Area

Stefan Eichler Hannes Böhm

in: Journal of Financial Stability, Nr. 100763, December 2020

Abstract

While the sovereign-bank loop literature has demonstrated the amplification between sovereign and bank risks in the Euro Area, its econometric identification is vulnerable to reverse causality and omitted variable biases. We address the loop's endogenous nature and isolate the direct bank-to-sovereign distress channel by exploiting the global, non-Eurozone related variation in banks’ stock prices. We instrument banking sector stock returns in the Eurozone with exposure-weighted stock market returns from non-Eurozone countries and take further precautions to remove Eurozone-related variation. We find that the transmission of instrumented bank distress to sovereign distress is around 50% smaller than the corresponding coefficient in the unadjusted OLS framework, confirming concerns on endogeneity. Despite the smaller relative magnitude, increasing instrumented bank distress is found to be an economically and statistically significant cause for rising sovereign fragility in the Eurozone.

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The Economic Record of the Government and Sovereign Bond and Stock Returns Around National Elections

Stefan Eichler Timo Plaga

in: Journal of Banking and Finance, Nr. 105832, September 2020

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of the fiscal and economic record of the incumbent government in shaping the price response of sovereign bonds and stocks to the election outcome in emerging markets and developed countries. For sovereign bonds in emerging markets, we find robust evidence for higher cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) if a government associated with a relatively low primary fiscal balance is voted out of office compared to elections where the fiscal balance was relatively high. This effect of the incumbent government's fiscal record is significantly more pronounced in the presence of high sovereign default risk and strong political veto players, whereas the quality of institutions does not explain differences in effects for different events. We do not find robust effects of the government's fiscal record for developed countries and stocks.

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Arbeitspapiere

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What Drives the Commodity-Sovereign-Risk-Dependence in Emerging Market Economies?

Hannes Böhm Stefan Eichler Stefan Gießler

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 23, 2019

Abstract

Using daily data for 34 emerging markets in the period 1994-2016, we find robust evidence that higher export commodity prices are associated with higher sovereign bond returns (indicating lower sovereign risk). The economic effect is especially pronounced for heavy commodity exporters. Examining the drivers, we find, first, that commodity-dependence is higher for countries that export large volumes of volatile commodities and that the effect increases in times of recessions, high inflation, and expansionary U.S. monetary policy. Second, the importance of raw material prices for sovereign financing can likely be mitigated if a country improves institutions and tax systems, attracts FDI inflows, invests in manufacturing, machinery and infrastructure, builds up reserve assets and opens capital and trade accounts. Third, the concentration of commodities within a country’s portfolio, its government indebtedness or amount of received development assistance appear to be only of secondary importance for commodity-dependence.

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A Market-based Indicator of Currency Risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts

Stefan Eichler Ingmar Roevekamp

in: IWH Discussion Papers, Nr. 4, 2016

Abstract

We introduce a novel currency risk measure based on American Depositary Receipts(ADRs). Using a multifactor pricing model, we exploit ADR investors’ exposure to potential devaluation losses to derive an indicator of currency risk. Using weekly data for a sample of 831 ADRs located in 23 emerging markets over the 1994-2014 period, we find that a deterioration in the fiscal and current account balance, as well as higher inflation, increases currency risk. Interaction models reveal that these macroeconomic fundamentals drive currency risk, particularly in countries with managed exchange rates, low levels of foreign exchange reserves and a poor sovereign credit rating.

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Deriving the Term Structure of Banking Crisis Risk with a Compound Option Approach: The Case of Kazakhstan

Stefan Eichler Alexander Karmann Dominik Maltritz

in: Discussion paper, Series 2: Banking and financial studies, No. 01/2010, Nr. 1, 2010

Abstract

We use a compound option-based structural credit risk model to infer a term structure of banking crisis risk from market data on bank stocks in daily frequency. Considering debt service payments with different maturities this term structure assigns a separate estimator for short- and long-term default risk to each maturity. Applying the Duan (1994) maximum likelihood approach, we find for Kazakhstan that the overall crisis probability was mainly driven by short-term risk, which increased from 25% in March 2007 to 80% in December 2008. Concurrently, the long-term default risk increased from 20% to only 25% during the same period.

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