14:15 - 15:45
Workers’ bargaining Power and the Phillips Curve
We use a general equilibrium model to show that a decrease in workers' bargaining power amplifies the relative contribution to the output gap of adjustments along the extensive margin of labour utilization. This mechanism reduces the cyclical movements of marginal cost (and inflation) relative to those of the output gap.
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Dr Marco Jacopo Lombardi joined the BIS in June 2012 from the European Central Bank, where he worked in the Directorate General Economics. He holds a PhD in applied statistics from the University of Florence and has been Max Weber Fellow of the European University Institute. His research covers a broad range of applied issues, including monetary policy, commodities, forecasting, econometric methods and macroeconometric models.
We show that the relationship between bargaining power and adjustments along the extensive margin (relative to the intensive margin) is supported by microdata. Our analysis relies on panel data from the Italian survey of industrial firms. The Bayesian estimation of the model using euro-area aggregate data covering the 1970-1990 and 1991-2016 samples confirms that the decline in workers' bargaining power has weakened the inflation-output gap relationship.
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