Lending Effects of the ECB’s Asset Purchases
Michael Koetter
Journal of Monetary Economics,
forthcoming
Abstract
Between 2010 and 2012, the European Central Bank absorbed €218 billion worth of government securities from five EMU countries under the Securities Markets Programme (SMP). Detailed security holdings data at the bank level affirms an effective lending stimulus due to the SMP. Exposed banks contract household lending, but increase commercial lending substantially. Holding non-SMP securities from stressed EMU countries amplifies the commercial lending response. The SMP also improved liquidity buffers and profitability without compromising credit quality.
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Sinkendes Potenzialwachstum in Deutschland, beschleunigter Braunkohleausstieg und Klimapaket: Finanzpolitische Konsequenzen für die Jahre bis 2024
Andrej Drygalla, Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Axel Lindner, Christoph Schult, Matthias Wieschemeyer, Götz Zeddies
Konjunktur aktuell,
No. 4,
2019
Abstract
Nach der Mittelfristprojektion des IWH wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in Deutschland in den Jahren bis 2024 preisbereinigt um durchschnittlich 1% wachsen; das nominale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird um durchschnittlich 2¾% zunehmen. Die Durchschnittswerte verschleiern die Tatsache, dass das Wachstum gegen Ende des Projektionszeitraums aufgrund der dann rückläufigen Erwerbsbevölkerung spürbar zurückgehen wird. Dies wird sich auch bei den Staatseinnahmen niederschlagen. Allerdings wird die Bevölkerung nicht regional gleichverteilt zurückgehen. Strukturschwache Regionen dürften stärker betroffen sein. Die regionalen Effekte auf die Staatseinnahmen werden zwar durch Umverteilungsmechanismen abgefedert, aber nicht völlig ausgeglichen. Regionen mit schrumpfender Erwerbsbevölkerung müssen sich auf einen sinkenden finanziellen Spielraum einstellen. Der beschleunigte Braunkohleausstieg wird diesen Prozess verstärken, das Klimapaket der Bundesregierung hat hingegen vergleichsweise geringe Auswirkungen auf die öffentlichen Finanzen.
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College Choice, Selection, and Allocation Mechanisms: A Structural Empirical Analysis
J.-R. Carvalho, T. Magnac, Qizhou Xiong
Quantitative Economics,
No. 3,
2019
Abstract
We use rich microeconomic data on performance and choices of students at college entry to analyze interactions between the selection mechanism, eliciting college preferences through exams, and the allocation mechanism. We set up a framework in which success probabilities and student preferences are shown to be identified from data on their choices and their exam grades under exclusion restrictions and support conditions. The counterfactuals we consider balance the severity of congestion and the quality of the match between schools and students. Moving to deferred acceptance or inverting the timing of choices and exams are shown to increase welfare. Redistribution among students and among schools is also sizeable in all counterfactual experiments.
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Crises and Rescues: Liquidity Transmission Through Global Banks
Michael Koetter, Claudia M. Buch, C. T. Koch
International Journal of Central Banking,
No. 4,
2018
Abstract
This paper shows that global banks transmit liquidity shocks via their network of foreign affiliates. We use the (unexpected) access of German banks' affiliates located in the United States to the Federal Reserve's Term Auction Facility. We condition on the parent banks' U.S. dollar funding needs in order to examine how affiliates located outside the United States adjusted their balance sheets when the U.S. affiliate of the same parent tapped into TAF liquidity. Our research has three main findings. First, affiliates tied to parents with higher U.S. dollar funding needs expanded their foreign assets during periods of active TAF borrowing. Second, the overall effects are driven by affiliates located in financial centers. Third, U.S.- dollar-denominated lending particularly increased in response to the TAF program.
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Employment Effects of Introducing a Minimum Wage: The Case of Germany
Oliver Holtemöller, Felix Pohle
Abstract
This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the employment effects of minimum wages. We analysed the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany in 2015 exploiting cross-sectional variation of the minimum wage affectedness. We construct two variables that measure the affectedness for approximately 300 state-industry combinations based on aggregate monthly income data. The estimation strategy consists of two steps. We test for (unidentified) structural breaks in a model with cross-section specific trends to control for state-industry specific developments prior to 2015. In a second step, we test whether the trend deviations are correlated with the minimum wage affectedness. To identify the minimum wage effect on employment, we assume that the minimum wage introduction is exogenous. Our results point towards a negative effect on marginal employment and a positive effect on socially insured employment. Furthermore, we analyse if the increase in socially insured employment is systematically related to the reduction of marginal employment but do not detect evidence.
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Messbar, aber milde: Auswirkungen des SMP-Wertpapier-Ankaufprogramms der EZB auf den regionalen Bankenwettbewerb in Deutschland
Friederike Altgelt, Michael Koetter
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 3,
2017
Abstract
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat mit dem Securities Markets Programme (SMP) im Mai 2010 ein Instrument unkonventioneller Geldpolitik eingeführt. Im Rahmen des SMP erwarb sie im Wert von 218 Mrd. Euro Staatsanleihen ausgewählter Länder, welche erhöhten Risikoaufschlägen am Kapitalmarkt ausgesetzt waren. Eine mögliche Nebenwirkung solcher Ankaufprogramme ist es, auch jene Banken zu stützen, die nicht zum direkten Adressatenkreis gehören, aber Anleihen betroffener Länder in ihren Portfolios hielten. Möglicherweise resultierende Refinanzierungs-, Ertrags-, und Liquiditätsvorteile für bevorteilte Banken könnten zu Wettbewerbsverzerrungen führen. Dieser Beitrag betrachtet deshalb die Wertpapierportfolios regionaler deutscher Banken, um den kausalen Effekt des SMP auf das Wettbewerbsverhalten zu identifizieren. Die empirischen Befunde belegen in der Tat eine statistisch nachweisbare Zunahme der lokalen Marktanteile jener regionalen Banken, welche Anleihen in ihren Portfolios hielten, die Teil des SMP waren. Während dieses Ergebnis somit einen Beleg für die Existenz unbeabsichtigter Nebenwirkungen unkonventioneller Geldpolitik darstellt, so ist auch festzuhalten dass diese Wettbewerbseffekte ausgesprochen klein sind. Somit ist zumindest für den regionalen Bankenmarkt in Deutschland keine nennenswerte Verwerfung aufgrund dieses Ankaufprogramms festzustellen.
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Bank Overall Financial Strength: Islamic Versus Conventional Banks
Michael Doumpos, Iftekhar Hasan, Fotios Pasiouras
Economic Modelling,
2017
Abstract
A number of recent studies compare the performance of Islamic and conventional banks with the use of individual financial ratios or efficiency frontier techniques. The present study extends this strand of the literature, by comparing Islamic banks, conventional banks, and banks with an Islamic window with the use of a bank overall financial strength index. This index is developed with a multicriteria methodology that allows us to aggregate various criteria capturing bank capital strength, asset quality, earnings, liquidity, and management quality in controlling expenses. We find that banks differ significantly in terms of individual financial ratios; however, the difference of the overall financial strength between Islamic and conventional banks is not statistically significant. This finding is confirmed with both univariate comparisons and in multivariate regression estimations. When we look at the bank financial strength within regions, we find that conventional banks outperform both the Islamic banks and the banks with Islamic window in the case of Asia and the Gulf Cooperation Council; however, Islamic banks perform better in the MENA and Senegal region. Second stage regressions also reveal that the bank overall financial strength index is influenced by various country-specific attributes. These include control of corruption, government effectiveness, and operation in one of the seven countries that are expected to drive the next big wave in Islamic finance.
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