Evaluation of Subsidy Programmes
This research group develops the scientific foundations for causal impact analysis of policy interventions within the European Union, with a particular focus on place-based policies. Despite significant public spending on such programmes in many developed economies, there is limited evidence on their effectiveness and efficiency.
Our approach integrates three key dimensions: first, the systematic use of administrative funding data and legislative documents; second, the application of advanced methods in policy impact evaluation; and third, the exchange of knowledge among researchers, policymakers, public administration, and civil society. Without this integration, research risks becoming either overly abstract or disconnected from the institutional and legal realities of policy implementation. By combining these elements, we create robust research designs grounded in real data and legal frameworks.
This approach allows us to generate evidence-based insights that contribute to better informed decision-making—not only in politics but also within civil society. The findings of our work have contributed to the revision and improvement of existing subsidy programmes. The research group is closely embedded in the activities of the Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice (CEP), ensuring both scientific rigor and practical relevance. In doing so, we embody the leitmotif of the Leibniz Association: theoria cum praxi.
Research Cluster
Economic Dynamics and StabilityYour contact
- Department Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice
EXTERNAL FUNDING
05.2024 ‐ 10.2024
Evaluation, Monitoring and Scientific Support of Structural Change in Lusatia, BTU
State of Brandenburg/State Chancellery
01.2022 ‐ 10.2023
Evaluation, Monitoring and Scientific Support of Structural Change in Lusatia
State of Brandenburg/State Chancellery
08.2018 ‐ 06.2023
Evaluation of the Joint Task “Improving the Regional Economic Structure” (GRW) through Individual Company Performance Reviews
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWI)
09.2019 ‐ 09.2022
Establishing Evidence-based Evaluation Methods for Subsidy Programmes in Germany (EVA-KULT)
The project aims at expanding the Centre for Evidence-based Policy Advice at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH-CEP).
02.2019 ‐ 01.2022
Analysis and Design of Support Programmes to Manage Structural Change in Regions Affected by the Energy Transition
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
01.2018 ‐ 12.2020
Networked growth - Innovative Saxony-Anhalt through digital business models (Competence Center 4.0)
01.2017 ‐ 12.2018
Political Participation in Eastern Germany
12.2015 ‐ 11.2018
Socio-economic Effects of Research on Innovative Approaches for POC Diagnostics
Part of the EXASENS project. Coordinated by the Leibniz Institute of Photonic Technology (IPHT) in Jena, nine Leibniz institutes are working together on researching point-of-care (POC) technology for the prediction and diagnosis of chronic inflammatory respiratory diseases. See press release.
02.2017 ‐ 02.2018
The Importance of Non-University Research Institutions for the Development of Firms and Regions (Be_For_Reg-Projekt)
01.2015 ‐ 12.2016
Evaluation of the "Joint Task 'Improving the Regional Economic Structure'" in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt
Refereed Publications
Regional Effects of Professional Sports Franchises – Causal Evidence from Four European Football Leagues
in: Regional Studies, Vol. 55 (2), 2021
Abstract
The locational pattern of clubs in four professional football leagues in Europe is used to test the causal effect of relegations on short-run regional development. The study relies on the relegation mode of the classical round-robin tournament in the European model of sport to develop a regression-discontinuity design. The results indicate small and significant negative short-term effects on regional employment and output in the sports-related economic sector. In addition, small negative effects on overall regional employment growth are found. Total regional gross value added remains unaffected.
Entry into Self-employment and Individuals’ Risk-taking Propensities
in: Small Business Economics, Vol. 55 (4), 2020
Abstract
Most of the existing empirical literature on self-employment decisions assumes that individuals’ risk-taking propensities are stable over time. We allow for endogeneity on both sides when examining the relationship between individual risk-taking propensities and entry into self-employment. We confirm that a greater risk-taking propensity is associated with a higher probability of entering self-employment. However, we also find evidence that entering self-employment is associated with a significant and substantial increase in an individual’s propensity to take risks. Our findings add to the growing evidence that risk-taking propensities are not only inborn, but also determined by environmental factors.
Growing Income Inequality in the United States and Other Advanced Economies
in: Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 34 (4), 2020
Abstract
This paper studies the contribution of both labor and non-labor income in the growth in income inequality in the United States and large European economies. The paper first shows that the capital to labor income ratio disproportionately increased among high-earnings individuals, further contributing to the growth in overall income inequality. That said, the magnitude of this effect is modest, and the predominant driver of the growth in income inequality in recent decades is the growth in labor earnings inequality. Far more important than the distinction between total income and labor income, is the way in which educational factors account for the growth in US labor and capital income inequality. Growing income gaps among different education groups as well as composition effects linked to a growing fraction of highly educated workers have been driving these effects, with a noticeable role of occupational and locational factors for women. Findings for large European economies indicate that inequality has been growing fast in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, though not in France. Capital income and education don't play as much as a role in these countries as in the United States.
Identifying Cooperation for Innovation―a Comparison of Data Sources
in: Industry and Innovation, Vol. 27 (6), 2020
Abstract
The value of social network analysis is critically dependent on the comprehensive and reliable identification of actors and their relationships. We compare regional knowledge networks based on different types of data sources, namely, co-patents, co-publications, and publicly subsidized collaborative R&D projects. Moreover, by combining these three data sources, we construct a multilayer network that provides a comprehensive picture of intraregional interactions. By comparing the networks based on the data sources, we address the problems of coverage and selection bias. We observe that using only one data source leads to a severe underestimation of regional knowledge interactions, especially those of private sector firms and independent researchers.
The Regional Effects of a Place-based Policy – Causal Evidence from Germany
in: Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 79 (November), 2019
Abstract
The German government provides discretionary investment grants to structurally weak regions in order to reduce regional inequality. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits an exogenous discrete jump in the probability of regional actors to receive investment grants to identify the causal effects of the policy. We find positive effects of the programme on district-level gross value-added and productivity growth, but no effects on employment and gross wage growth.
Working Papers
A Helping Hand, but not a Lift. EU Cohesion Policy and Regional Development
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 18, 2025
Abstract
This study provides new evidence on the impact of the EU Cohesion Policy on income growth in less developed regions. Our panel includes data from all European regions for the years 1989-2020. Using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we model treatment dynamics by applying a random effects estimator. Based on digitized historical data, we precisely replicate the policy rule and correctly classify the regions’ eligibility status. Results show that the policy has a moderate positive effect on GDP per capita growth in the targeted regions.
Declining Free Lunch: State Capacity and Foregone Public Spending
in: RFBerlin Discussion Paper, No. 67, 2025
Abstract
This paper documents substantial fiscal waste in the context of one the world’s largest regional development programs – the EU Cohesion Policy. We study Italy, and find that 20% of funding commitments are never paid out and funneled into unfinished or never-started projects. In our setting, this happens for reasons unrelated to fiscal constraints – municipalities appear to simply leave money on the table. Foregone spending is more prevalent in Southern regions, but there is also stark variation across municipalities within regions. We show that such under-utilization of available funds is strongly associated with limited administrative capacity of local governments.
Investment Grants: Curse or Blessing for Employment?
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 12, 2025
Abstract
In this study, establishment-level employment effects of investment grants in Germany are estimated. In addition to the quantitative effects, I provide empirical evidence of funding effects on different aspects of employment quality (earnings, qualifications, and job security) for the period 2004 to 2020. The database combines project-level treatment data, establishment-level information on firm characteristics and employee structure, and regional information at the district-level. For the estimations, I combine the difference-in-differences approach of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) with ties matching at the cohort level. The estimations yield positive effects on the number of employees, but point to contradicting effects of investment grants on different aspects of employment quality.
Who Benefits from Place-based Policies? Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 11, 2024
Abstract
We study the granular wage and employment effects of a German place-based policy using a research design that leverages conditionally exogenous EU-wide rules governing program parameters at the regional level. The place-based program subsidizes investments to create jobs with a subsidy rate that varies across labor market regions. The analysis uses matched data on the universe of establishments and their employees, establishment-level panel data on program participation, and regional scores that generate spatial discontinuities in program eligibility and generosity. Spatial spillovers of the program linked to changing commuting patterns can be assessed using information on place of work and place of residence, a unique feature of the data. These rich data enable us to study the incidence of the place-based program on different groups of individuals. We find that the program helps establishments create jobs that disproportionately benefit younger and less-educated workers. Funded establishments increase their wages but, unlike employment, wage gains do not persist in the long run. Employment effects estimated at the local area level are slightly larger than establishment- level estimates, suggesting limited economic spillover effects. On the other hand, spatial spillovers are large as over half of the employment increase comes from commuters. Using subsidy rates as an instrumental variable for actual subsidies indicates that it costs approximately EUR 25,000 to create a new job in the economically disadvantaged areas targeted by the program.
flexpaneldid: A Stata Toolbox for Causal Analysis with Varying Treatment Time and Duration
in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 3, 2020
Abstract
The paper presents a modification of the matching and difference-in-differences approach of Heckman et al. (1998) for the staggered treatment adoption design and a Stata tool that implements the approach. This flexible conditional difference-in-differences approach is particularly useful for causal analysis of treatments with varying start dates and varying treatment durations. Introducing more flexibility enables the user to consider individual treatment periods for the treated observations and thus circumventing problems arising in canonical difference-in-differences approaches. The open-source flexpaneldid toolbox for Stata implements the developed approach and allows comprehensive robustness checks and quality tests. The core of the paper gives comprehensive examples to explain the use of the commands and its options on the basis of a publicly accessible data set.