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Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Current Position

since 3/14

Vice President

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 8/09

Head of the Department of Macroeconomics

Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) – Member of the Leibniz Association

since 8/09

Professor of Economics


Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg

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Research Interests
  • quantitative macroeconomics, business cycles, and forecasting
  • applied econometrics and time series analysis
  • monetary economics
  • macroeconomic policy
  • environmental macroeconomics

Oliver Holtemöller is Professor of Economics at Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and head of the Department of Macroeconomics at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) since August 2009. Since March 2014, he is also a member of the executive board of the IWH.

Oliver Holtemöller has studied economics, applied mathematics and practical computer science at the Justus-Liebig University in Gießen. He participated in the doctoral programme Applied Microeconomics at the Freie Universität Berlin and at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin from 1998-2001 and obtained his doctoral degree from the Freie Universität Berlin in 2001.

From 2001 to 2003, he was a collaborator in the National Research Center Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes (SFB 373) at the Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. From 2003 to 2009, he was an Assistant Professor in Economics at RWTH Aachen University.

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Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
- Department Macroeconomics
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Publications

Citations
1236

Recent Publications

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IWH-Tarif-Check: Keine realen Netto-Tariflohnzuwächse für Beschäftigte im Öffentlichen Dienst

Oliver Holtemöller Birgit Schultz

in: IWH Tarif-Check, No. 1, 2025

Abstract

<p>*** Steigende Sozialabgaben und Inflation fressen Gehaltsplus der Beschäftigten bei Bund und Kommunen auf *** Die Tarifvertragsparteien des Öffentlichen Dienstes von Bund und Kommunen haben sich am vergangenen Wochenende auf einen neuen Tariflohnabschluss mit einer Laufzeit von 27 Monaten geeinigt: Demnach steigen im April 2025 die Löhne um 3,0%, jedoch mindestens um 110 Euro je Monat. Im Mai 2026 gibt es dann nochmals eine Tariflohnerhöhung um 2,8% sowie eine Erhöhung der Jahressonderzahlung und ab 2027 einen zusätzlichen Urlaubstag.</p>

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Vergabe der Kohle-Fördermittel nimmt langsam Fahrt auf - Zweiter Zwischenbericht zur begleitenden Evaluierung des Investitionsgesetzes Kohleregionen (InvKG) und des STARK-Bundesprogramms erschienen

Oliver Holtemöller Torsten Schmidt Mirko Titze

in: IWH Policy Notes, No. 1, 2025

Abstract

<p>Am 13. Februar 2025 wurde der zweite Zwischenbericht zur begleitenden Evaluierung des Investitionsgesetzes Kohleregionen (InvKG) und des STARK-Bundesprogramms von den Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten IWH und RWI veröffentlicht.&nbsp;</p> <p>Die Evaluierung, die im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz durchgeführt wird, analysiert die Fortschritte der Programme, identifiziert die Wirkungen der Förderung und gibt konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen, wie die Maßnahmen optimiert werden können, um die Transformation der vom Kohleausstieg betroffenen Regionen in Deutschland erfolgreich zu gestalten.</p>

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Begleitende Evaluierung des Investitionsgesetzes Kohleregionen (InvKG) und des STARK-Bundesprogramms ‒ Zweiter Zwischenbericht vom 31.10.2024

Matthias Brachert Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Florian Kirsch Uwe Neumann Michael Rothgang Torsten Schmidt Christoph Schult Anna Solms Mirko Titze

in: IWH Studies, No. 1, 2025

Abstract

<p><strong>Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz</strong></p> <p>Das Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG) sieht eine Reduktion der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen bis zum Jahr 2030 um 65 Prozent gegenüber den Emissionen im Jahr 1990 vor. Der Ausstieg aus der thermischen Verwertung der Kohle (vor allem der Braunkohle) leistet einen substanziellen Beitrag zum Erreichen dieser Ziele. Der Kohleausstieg stellt die Braunkohlereviere (und die Standorte der Steinkohlekraftwerke) jedoch vor strukturpolitische Herausforderungen. Um den Strukturwandel in diesen Regionen aktiv zu gestalten, hat der Bundestag im August 2020 mit Zustimmung des Bundesrats das Strukturstärkungsgesetz Kohleregionen (StStG) beschlossen. Über dieses Gesetz stellt der Bund bis zum Jahr 2038 Finanzhilfen von 41,09 Mrd. Euro zur Verfügung. Im Fokus der Politikmaßnahmen stehen verschiedene Ziele, vor allem gesamtwirtschaftliche (Wertschöpfung, Wachstum, Steueraufkommen), wettbewerbliche (Produktivität), arbeitsmarktpolitische (Beschäftigung, Beschäftigungsstrukturen), verteilungspolitische (regionale Disparitäten) sowie klimapolitische (Treibhausgasreduzierung, Nachhaltigkeit). Die im StStG vorgesehenen strukturpolitischen Interventionen umfassen ein breites Maßnahmenbündel. Das Gesetz fordert eine begleitende wissenschaftliche Evaluierung des Gesetzes. Bei dem vorliegenden Bericht handelt es sich um das zweite Dokument in diesem Evaluierungszyklus. Der erste Bericht liegt seit Juni 2023 vor und präsentierte ein erstes Lagebild nach dem Start der im Rahmen des Investitionsgesetzes Kohleregionen (InvKG) und des STARK-Bundesprogramms geplanten Maßnahmen. Nachdem nunmehr zahlreiche Maßnahmen in die Umsetzung gehen, nimmt der Strukturwandel an Fahrt auf. Der aktuelle Bericht nimmt eine Aktualisierung vor und erweitert Aussagen zu deren möglichen Effekten. Auch für diesen Bericht bleibt zu berücksichtigen, dass viele der geplanten Maßnahmen noch nicht oder gerade erst begonnen haben, was bei einer fast zwanzigjährigen Laufzeit des Programms durchaus naheliegend ist. Die in diesem Bericht vorgelegten empirischen Analysen basieren auf dem Datenstand vom 30.06.2024, also fast vier Jahre nach Programmstart.</p>

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Refereed Publications

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International Trade Barriers and Regional Employment: The Case of a No-Deal Brexit

Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Journal of Economic Structures, No. 11, 2021

Abstract

We use the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) combined with regional sectoral employment data to estimate the potential regional employment effects of international trade barriers. We study the case of a no-deal Brexit in which imports to the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) would be subject to tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. First, we derive the decline in UK final goods imports from the EU from industry-specific international trade elasticities, tariffs and non-tariff trade costs. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the potential output and employment effects for 56 industries and 43 countries on the national level. The absolute effects would be largest in big EU countries which have close trade relationships with the UK, such as Germany and France. However, there would also be large countries outside the EU which would be heavily affected via global value chains, such as China, for example. The relative effects (in percent of total employment) would be largest in Ireland followed by Belgium. In a second step, we split up the national effects on the NUTS-2 level for EU member states and additionally on the county (NUTS-3) level for Germany. The share of affected workers varies between 0.03% and 3.4% among European NUTS-2 regions and between 0.15% and 0.4% among German counties. A general result is that indirect effects via global value chains, i.e., trade in intermediate inputs, are more important than direct effects via final demand.

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Power Generation and Structural Change: Quantifying Economic Effects of the Coal Phase-out in Germany

Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller Christoph Schult

in: Energy Economics, 2021

Abstract

In the fight against global warming, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular, a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany, using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggregate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies between 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10,100 [6300; 12,300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare, consumption and employment compared to a coal-exit until 2040.

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(Since when) are East and West German Business Cycles Synchronised?

Stefan Gießler Katja Heinisch Oliver Holtemöller

in: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, No. 1, 2021

Abstract

We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and we employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates. However, synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to have become weaker again recently.

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Working Papers

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Optimal Monetary Policy in a Two-sector Environmental DSGE Model

Oliver Holtemöller Alessandro Sardone

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 18, 2024

Abstract

<p>In this paper, we discuss how environmental damage and emission reduction policies affect the conduct of monetary policy in a two-sector (clean and dirty) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. In particular, we examine the optimal response of the interest rate to changes in sectoral inflation due to standard supply shocks, conditional on a given environmental policy. We then compare the performance of a nonstandard monetary rule with sectoral inflation targets to that of a standard Taylor rule. Our main results are as follows: first, the optimal monetary policy is affected by the existence of environmental policy (carbon taxation), as this introduces a distortion in the relative price level between the clean and dirty sectors. Second, compared with a standard Taylor rule targeting aggregate inflation, a monetary policy rule with asymmetric responses to sector-specific inflation allows for reduced volatility in the inflation gap, output gap, and emissions. Third, a nonstandard monetary policy rule allows for a higher level of welfare, so the two goals of welfare maximization and emission minimization can be aligned.</p>

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Forecasting Economic Activity Using a Neural Network in Uncertain Times: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to the German GDP

Oliver Holtemöller Boris Kozyrev

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 6, 2024

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed the forecasting and nowcasting performance of a generalized regression neural network (GRNN). We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations for the relative forecast performance of GRNN depending on the data-generating process. We show that GRNN outperforms an autoregressive benchmark model in many practically relevant cases. Then, we applied GRNN to forecast quarterly German GDP growth by extending univariate GRNN to multivariate and mixed-frequency settings. We could distinguish between “normal” times and situations where the time-series behavior is very different from “normal” times such as during the COVID-19 recession and recovery. GRNN was superior in terms of root mean forecast errors compared to an autoregressive model and to more sophisticated approaches such as dynamic factor models if applied appropriately.

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Globalization, Productivity Growth, and Labor Compensation

Christian Dreger Marius Fourné Oliver Holtemöller

in: IWH Discussion Papers, No. 7, 2022

Abstract

We analyze how changes in international trade integration affect productivity and the functional income distribution. To account for endogeneity, we construct a leaveout measure for international trade integration for country-industry pairs using international input-output tables. Our findings corroborate on the country-industry level that international trade integration increases productivity. Moreover, we show that both trade in intermediate inputs and trade in value added is associated with lower labor shares in emerging markets. For advanced countries, we document a positive effect of trade in value added on the labor share of income. Further, we show that the effects on productivity and labor share are heterogeneous across different sectors. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results for a possible throwback in international trade integration due to experiences from recent crises.

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Topics

Climate Policy Forecasts Growth Labour Market Demographic Change East Germany Minimum Wages Coal Phase-out Economic Outlook National Budget Taxes
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