Pandemic Delays Upswing – Demography Slows Growth

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7% in the current year and 3.9% in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection have been averted, a strong recovery will begin.

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IWH Bankruptcy Update: Bankruptcy Statistics Rise Again in March

Considerably faster than the official statistics, the IWH Bankruptcy Update provides a monthly update on corporate bankruptcy. The number of firms declaring bankruptcy increased once again in March. However, the number of jobs impacted by the bankruptcy of large firms remained constant.

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Relaxation of Corona containment measures: more economic mobility, but also more COVID-19 cases

Estimates suggest that the recent relaxation of Corona containment measures in Germany lead to an increase in economic mobility by more than ten percentage points and the number of new infections and deaths in Germany by 25%. Conclusion: We need better testing and quarantine strategies and quicker vaccinations.

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During Corona, households are saving more for lack of spending opportunities

During the Corona crisis, European households are saving more – not due to economic uncertainty but for lack of spending opportunities in the face of lockdown measures. This allows an optimistic forecast for post-Corona economic recovery as soon as the lockdown is lifted. 

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IWH issues warning of a new banking crisis

The coronavirus recession could mean the end for dozens of banks across Germany – even if Germany survives the economic crisis relatively unscathed. IWH President Reint Gropp warns of a potentially high additional burden for the already weakened real economy.

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IWH hosts award-winning US economist

The renowned Max Planck-Humboldt Research Award 2019 goes to Ufuk Akcigit, Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago. At the IWH, Akcigit aims to use innovative methods to investigate why the economy in eastern Germany is still lagging behind that in western Germany – and what role the privatisation process 30 years ago played in this.

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IWH leads large scale EU project on productivity

Is productivity growth slowing in industrialised countries? And if so, why? From the start of 2019, the IWH will be addressing these decisive questions as the leading coordinator of a new European research collaboration: MICROPROD is the largest EU project in the history of the institute.

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We provide independent research on economic topics that really matter and aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity because we are convinced that economic prosperity enables people to lead happier lives. We provide young researchers a nurturing place to develop their competencies and to make the most of their skills. Working in flat hierarchies, we are driven by open-minded intellectual curiosity and we have the courage to share inconvenient insights.

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Figure It Out!

Bankruptcies increased and nearly as high as in March 2020

870

firms in Germany filed for bankruptcy last month. This represents a

20
percent increase over February and was nearly as high as the figure from March 2020.

Press Releases

15.04.2021 • 12/2021

Economy in East Germany shrank less than in the West, but will have weaker momentum when pandemic disappears – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2021 and new data for East Germany

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

At 3%, the increase in gross domestic product in eastern Germany in 2021 is likely to be lower than in Germany as a whole (3.7%), as the slump due to the pandemic was smaller in 2020. In the course of the economic recovery in the second half of the year, the unemployment rate is expected to fall slightly.

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15.04.2021 • 11/2021

Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7% in the current year and 3.9% in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin. The economy is likely to return to normal output levels around the start of the coming year.

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08.04.2021 • 10/2021

IWH Bankruptcy Update: Bankruptcy Statistics Rise Again in March

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

The number of firms declaring bankruptcy in Germany increased once again in March. However, the number of jobs impacted by the bankruptcy of large firms remained constant. The IWH Bankruptcy Report, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.

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18.03.2021 • 9/2021

Economic mobility likely to increase significantly after relaxation – but also number of COVID-19 cases

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

The relaxation of Corona containment measures from the beginning of March 2021 lead to a significant increase in economic mobility and thus also in personal contacts in Germany. Estimates suggest that the recent relaxations increase economic mobility by more than ten percentage points and the number of new infections and deaths in Germany by 25%. Because both continued lockdowns and relaxations carry significant negative consequences, it is even more important to enable further relaxations through better testing and quarantine strategies and by increasing the pace of vaccination without putting people's health at risk.

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Workshops and conferences

7th IWH-FIN-FIRE Workshop on "Challenges to Financial Stability"

Keynote Speakers: Antoinette Schoar (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT); Johannes Stroebel (Leonard N. Stern School of Business, NYU Stern)
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