Energy Crisis: Inflation, Recession, Welfare Loss

Soaring gas prices are drastically increasing energy costs, leading to a massive reduction of the purchasing power. Despite a decline in the second half of the year, gross domestic product is expected to expand by 1.4% this year. For the coming year, the institutes expect a contraction by 0.4%, followed by an increase of 1.9% in 2024.

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HOORAY!

The festivities to celebrate the institute´s 30th anniversary will take place on September 12, 2022 at Leopoldina in Halle (Saale).

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Consequences of a Halt in Gas Deliveries for Germany

A halt in Russian gas deliveries would lead to a recession in the German economy. Not all regions would be equally affected.

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Applauding on a business seminar!

IWH welcomes top researcher as head of new department

World-renowned economist Merih Sevilir is heading the Halle Institute’s newest department from now on. Her expertise on the interplay of financial and labour markets strengthens the unique selling points of the IWH.

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Solidarity with Ukraine

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany draws consequences for academia.

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Communication instead of conflict – why are female CEOs so interesting for hedge funds

Female CEOs particularly benefit from the intervention of hedge fund activists due to their strong communication and cooperation skills. The value of female-led firms is enhanced more by the intervention of activist investors than that of firms with male CEOs.

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Alone at home: Isolation during the Corona pandemic increases likelihood of selfishness

Experiencing social distancing as a measure against the Corona pandemic led participants in an IWH study to make more selfish decisions. However, a reference to norm-consistent behaviour was able to reduce this effect. Focusing on exemplary behaviour could therefore alleviate the negative social consequences of the lockdown.

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The Halle Spirit

We provide independent research on economic topics that really matter and aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity because we are convinced that economic prosperity enables people to lead happier lives. We provide young researchers a nurturing place to develop their competencies and to make the most of their skills. Working in flat hierarchies, we are driven by open-minded intellectual curiosity and we have the courage to share inconvenient insights.

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Press Releases

29.09.2022 • 24/2022

The East German economy expanded strongly in the first half of 2022, but falls into recession in the second half of the year ‒ Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2022 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Statistical Office

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

The energy crisis is pushing the German economy into recession. This also affects the economy in East Germany. According to the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), East German production will expand at a slightly stronger rate of 1.5% than in Germany as a whole. For the coming year, the decline in East Germany is expected to be less pronounced than in the west at 0.1% (Germany: ‒0.4%). For 2024, the economists forecast a growth of 1.7% (Germany: 1.9%).

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29.09.2022 • 23/2022

Joint Economic Forecast 2/2022: Energy crisis: inflation, recession, welfare loss

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

The crisis on the gas markets is having a severe impact on the German economy. Soaring gas prices are drastically increasing energy costs, leading to a massive reduction of the purchasing power. Despite a decline in the second half of the year, gross domestic product is expected to expand by 1.4% this year. For the coming year, the institutes expect a contraction by 0.4%, followed by an increase of 1.9% in 2024.

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08.09.2022 • 22/2022

Energy crisis in Germany

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

Dwindling gas supplies from Russia and soaring prices for gas and electricity are leading to massive real income losses and a recession in Europe and Germany. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.1% in 2022 and decrease by 1.4% in 2023. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 7.9% in 2022 and 9.5% in 2023.

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06.09.2022 • 21/2022

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Ein Viertel mehr Firmenpleiten als im Vorjahr, Tendenz steigend

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

Die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften liegt im August 26% über dem Vorjahreswert, zeigt die aktuelle Analyse des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH). Für den Herbst ist mit zunehmenden Insolvenzzahlen zu rechnen.

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Veranstaltung
10
Oct 2022

14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Virtual lecture: Bank Competition amid Digital Disruption: Implications for Financial Inclusion

Erica Xuewei Jiang  University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business
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