Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2019: Significant cooling of the economy

Germany’s leading economics research institutes have revised their forecasts for economic growth in 2019 significantly downward. They expect Germany’s gross domestic product to increase by 0.8%. In autumn 2018, the forecast was still for 1.9% growth. In 2020, gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.8%.

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United by Inequality

How is Germany’s economy faring 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall? An IWH publication analyses how the country’s unification has progressed. The study presents many new findings, including on productivity differences between east and west, urban and rural development, as well as the availability of skilled labour.

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No-deal Brexit would hit the German labour market particularly hard

The United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a deal would have consequences for international trade and labour markets in many countries. More than 600,000 jobs may be affected worldwide, but nowhere as many as in Germany.

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IWH leads large scale EU project on productivity

Is productivity growth slowing in industrialised countries? And if so, why? From the start of 2019, the IWH will be addressing these decisive questions as the leading coordinator of a new European research collaboration: MICROPROD is the largest EU project in the history of the institute.

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Eine Hand in Nahaufnahme führt eine weiße Figur auf einem Schachbrett

Fairness pays off

When companies arbitrarily cut their wages, the motivation and productivity of the employees decrease – this is clear. Less obvious, however: Employees also become less productive even if it is their colleagues who are treated unfairly and not them.

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Research Networks, Data and Policy Advice

Figure It Out!

Relegation fear concerns us all

29
percent

In the following season, relegated football clubs face about 29% fewer spectators per home match.

Source: IWH calculations
3
percent
The development of employment and gross value added in the sports-related sector decreases by 3 % during the first two years following the relegation of a football club from the premier league.
Source: IWH calculations

Press Releases

04.04.2019 • 10/2019

Service providers in Berlin give boost to East German economy – implications of the Joint Economic Forecast and of official data on the East German economy in 2018

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

In its spring report, the Joint Economic Forecast group states that the upturn in Germany came to an end in the second half of 2018, mainly because the manufacturing sector is weakening due to a slowing international economy and to problems in the automotive industry. Accordingly, in places such as Saxony (1.2%), Thuringia (0.5%), and Saxony-Anhalt (0.9%), where manufacturing plays a particularly important role, gross domestic product (GDP) grew less than in Germany as a whole (1.4%).

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04.04.2019 • 9/2019

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2019: Significant cooling of the economy – Political risks high

Abstract

Berlin, April 4 – Germany’s leading economics research institutes have revised their forecasts for economic growth in 2019 significantly downward. They expect Germany’s gross domestic product to increase by 0.8%. This is more than one percentage point less than in autumn 2018, when the forecast was still for 1.9% growth. In contrast, the institutes confirm their previous forecast for the year 2020: gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.8%. These are the results of the Joint Economic Forecast for spring 2019, which will be presented in Berlin on Thursday.

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01.04.2019 • 8/2019

Bank profitability increases after eliminating consolidation barriers

Professor Michael Koetter, PhD
Abstract

When two banks merge because political consolidation barriers are abolished, the combined entity is considerably more profitable and useful to the real economy. This is the headline result of an analysis of compulsory savings banks mergers carried out by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). The study yields important insights for the German and the European banking market.

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07.03.2019 • 7/2019

German economy will pick up speed only slowly

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

In winter of 2018/2019, the global economy weakened considerably, mainly due to economic policy risks. In Germany, the economy will pick up speed only slowly. According to IWH spring economic forecast, gross domestic product will increase by 0.5% in 2019. Growth in East Germany will amount to 0.7%.

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Science Advice Workshop

Keynote: Professor Sir Peter Gluckman International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA)
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