IWH Autumn Forecast: Production bottlenecks delay recovery

The German recovery made good progress over the summer 2021. However, bottlenecks in transport and production are weighing on world trade, and an increase in new infections is clouding the outlook again. The German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.2% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022.

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IWH Bankruptcy Update: Ongoing Decline in Bankruptcy Statistics

Considerably faster than the official statistics, the IWH Bankruptcy Update provides a monthly update on corporate bankruptcy. After hitting an all-time low in July, the number of firms declaring bankruptcy fell yet again in August. A new low was also registered in the number of impacted jobs.

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Communication instead of conflict – why are female CEOs so interesting for hedge funds

Female CEOs particularly benefit from the intervention of hedge fund activists due to their strong communication and cooperation skills. The value of female-led firms is enhanced more by the intervention of activist investors than that of firms with male CEOs.

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Alone at home: Isolation during the Corona pandemic increases likelihood of selfishness

Experiencing social distancing as a measure against the Corona pandemic led participants in an IWH study to make more selfish decisions. However, a reference to norm-consistent behaviour was able to reduce this effect. Focusing on exemplary behaviour could therefore alleviate the negative social consequences of the lockdown.

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Increase in Personal Contacts Spurs Economic Activity

This summer the economic outlook in Germany is bright. As the pandemic is in retreat, the restrictions will be gradually lifted, and a strong boost in private purchases can be expected. The IWH forecasts that gross domestic product will increase by 3.9% in 2021 and by 4.0% in 2022.

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Relaxation of Corona containment measures: more economic mobility, but also more COVID-19 cases

Estimates suggest that the recent relaxation of Corona containment measures in Germany lead to an increase in economic mobility by more than ten percentage points and the number of new infections and deaths in Germany by 25%. Conclusion: We need better testing and quarantine strategies and quicker vaccinations.

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IWH issues warning of a new banking crisis

The coronavirus recession could mean the end for dozens of banks across Germany – even if Germany survives the economic crisis relatively unscathed. IWH President Reint Gropp warns of a potentially high additional burden for the already weakened real economy.

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IWH hosts award-winning US economist

The renowned Max Planck-Humboldt Research Award 2019 goes to Ufuk Akcigit, Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago. At the IWH, Akcigit aims to use innovative methods to investigate why the economy in eastern Germany is still lagging behind that in western Germany – and what role the privatisation process 30 years ago played in this.

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IWH leads large scale EU project on productivity

Is productivity growth slowing in industrialised countries? And if so, why? From the start of 2019, the IWH will be addressing these decisive questions as the leading coordinator of a new European research collaboration: MICROPROD is the largest EU project in the history of the institute.

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We provide independent research on economic topics that really matter and aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity because we are convinced that economic prosperity enables people to lead happier lives. We provide young researchers a nurturing place to develop their competencies and to make the most of their skills. Working in flat hierarchies, we are driven by open-minded intellectual curiosity and we have the courage to share inconvenient insights.

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IWH Bankruptcy Update

3000

The largest 10% of firms declaring bankruptcy in August employed a total of 3,000 individuals.

82
This was 82% lower than the previous year's figure.

Press Releases

14.09.2021 • 23/2021

Production bottlenecks delay recovery

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

The German recovery made good progress over the summer 2021. However, bottlenecks in sea transport and the production of intermediate goods are weighing on world trade. The rise in raw material prices has prompted inflation rates to spike, and an increase in new infections is clouding the outlook again. A weak final quarter is therefore to be expected. The Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) forecasts that German gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.2% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022 (East Germany: 1.8% and 2.8%).

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07.09.2021 • 22/2021

IWH Bankruptcy Update: Ongoing Decline in Bankruptcy Statistics

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

After hitting an all-time low in July, the number of firms declaring bankruptcy in Germany fell yet again in August. A new low was also registered in the number of impacted jobs. These are the headline findings of the IWH Bankruptcy Report, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which provides a monthly update on German bankruptcy statistics.

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05.08.2021 • 21/2021

IWH Bankruptcy Update: Bankruptcies in Germany Fall to an All-time Low

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

The number of corporate bankruptcies in Germany fell to a historic low in July, and are not anticipated to trend higher in August, according to IWH’s leading indicators. The IWH Bankruptcy Update, published by the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), provides monthly statistics on corporate bankruptcies in Germany.

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29.07.2021 • 20/2021

Communication instead of conflict – why are female CEOs so interesting for hedge funds

Professor Reint E. Gropp, PhD
Abstract

The value of female-led firms is enhanced more by the intervention of activist investors than that of firms with male CEOs. This is the result of a recent paper by Iftekhar Hasan (Fordham University and IWH) and Qiang Wu (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, RPI) at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH). "The results show that female CEOs particularly benefit from the intervention of hedge fund activists due to their strong communication and interpersonal skills," explains Iftekhar Hasan. This is because, on average, the intervention of an activist hedge fund increases the value of the firm ex post. To achieve this, activist hedge funds such as Carl Icahn, Trian Fundmanagement or Elliott prefer to rely on communication and cooperation with the management.

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10th Annual Conference: "Firm dynamics, factors reallocation and organization of production in the context of COVID-19"

Keynote Speakers: John Van Reenen (London School of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Laura Alfaro (Harvard Business School)
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