JOINT ECONOMIC FORECAST AUTUMN 2018: UPTURN LOSES MOMENTUM

Germany’s leading economics research institutes have downwardly revised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019. They now expect economic output to increase by 1.7 percent in 2018, and not 2.2 percent as forecast in spring. They also scaled back their 2019 forecast slightly from 2.0 to 1.9 percent.

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Eine Hand in Nahaufnahme führt eine weiße Figur auf einem Schachbrett

Fairness pays off

When companies arbitrarily cut their wages, the motivation and productivity of the employees decrease – this is clear. Less obvious, however: Employees also become less productive even if it is their colleagues who are treated unfairly and not them.

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Brexit: The effects are already apparent

55
percent

Uncertainty is high among German firms: 55% of firms are still unsure about the consequences of Brexit for their business activity (source: DIHK).

11
percent
German exports to the UK were also 11% lower in June 2018 compared to June 2016 when the referendum took place (source: Destatis).

Press Releases

02.10.2018 • 20/2018

Presseeinladung zum Workshop: „Regionale Ungleichheit: Gleichwertige Lebensverhältnisse in Deutschland im Fokus“ am 8. und 9. Oktober 2018 in Halle (Saale)

Abstract

Ungleichheit in Deutschland: Was Wirtschaftskraft und Bevölkerungsentwicklung angeht, gibt es erhebliche Unterschiede zwischen Ost und West, zwischen Stadt und Land, zwischen Regionen mit alten Industrien und solchen mit vielen jungen Start-ups. Welche Konsequenzen sich aus diesen Unterschieden ergeben und wie die Politik darauf reagieren kann, diskutiert eine gemeinsame Veranstaltung des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) und des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH).

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27.09.2018 • 19/2018

Upswing in East Germany has slowed, but continues – implications of the joint forecast of the German economic research institutes in autumn 2018 and of official data for the Eastern German economy in the first half of 2018

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

The German institutes forecast a slowdown in the cyclical upswing in Germany. Foreign demand, in particular from other euro area countries, has eased, and capacity constraints make it increasingly difficult for companies to expand production. Both arguments apply to East Germany as well: high vacancy rates indicate that labour may be even scarcer than in the West despite higher unemployment. Moreover, a particularly high proportion of East German exports go to other European countries. Important drivers of growth in the East, however, are still intact: unlike the manufacturing sector, services have been rising a bit faster in recent years in East Germany than in the West. Providers of services benefit from significantly rising disposable incomes of private households, as employment is currently expanding healthily and at only a slightly slower pace than in West Germany, despite poorer demographic conditions. Retirement pensions in East Germany have also been increased considerably.

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27.09.2018 • 18/2018

Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2018: Upturn Loses Momentum

Abstract

Berlin, 27 September – Germany’s leading economics research institutes have downwardly revised their forecasts for 2018 and 2019. They now expect economic output to increase by 1.7 percent in 2018, and not 2.2 percent as forecast in spring. They also scaled back their 2019 forecast slightly from 2.0 to 1.9 percent. These are the results of the Joint Economic Forecast for autumn 2018 that will be presented in Berlin on Thursday.

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06.09.2018 • 17/2018

The Cyclical upswing in Germany continues, in spite of foreign demand losing momentum

Abstract

In autumn 2018, the global economy continues to expand quite strongly. Whereas the cyclical upswing in the USA has gained even more strength, the economy in the Euro area has weakened somewhat. To a lesser extent, this also applies to the German economy. “According to this forecast, the growth rate of German real gross domestic product will be 1.8% in 2018 and 1.7% in 2019. The East German economy will expand by 1.5% this year and by 1.4% in 2019”, says Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department Macroeconomics and vice president at IWH.

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Veranstaltung
19
Nov 2018

14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Debtholder Monitoring and Earnings Opacity

Speaker: Professor Klaus Schäck University of Bristol
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