Purchasing Power Returns – Political Uncertainty High

According to the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany's gross domestic product declines by 0.6% in 2023. This is a strong downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast made in spring 2023. Industry and private consumption are recovering more slowly than expected.

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Blathering managers harm their company

If a senior executive refuses to give information to professional investors, the company's stock market value drops afterwards. This is shown in an IWH study after evaluating 1.2 million answers from telephone conferences.

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Europe's top bankers: Risky business despite bonus cap

Ten years ago, the EU Parliament decided to limit the flexible remuneration of bank managers. But the cap on bonuses misses its target: Executive board members of systemically important European banks take high risks without changes. 

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Stricter rules for banks can relieve real estate markets

Exuberant price levels in the German real estate market could further exacerbate an economic crisis. Fiscal instruments exert too little influence to contain this danger.

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New database on Europe's real estate markets

Exclusively for non-commercial scientific purposes, the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) provides a comprehensive overview of residential property offers for sale and rent in 18 European countries.

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Solidarity with Ukraine

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany draws consequences for academia.

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Communication instead of conflict – why are female CEOs so interesting for hedge funds

Female CEOs particularly benefit from the intervention of hedge fund activists due to their strong communication and cooperation skills. The value of female-led firms is enhanced more by the intervention of activist investors than that of firms with male CEOs.

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Alone at home: Isolation during the Corona pandemic increases likelihood of selfishness

Experiencing social distancing as a measure against the Corona pandemic led participants in an IWH study to make more selfish decisions. However, a reference to norm-consistent behaviour was able to reduce this effect. Focusing on exemplary behaviour could therefore alleviate the negative social consequences of the lockdown.

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We provide independent research on economic topics that really matter and aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity because we are convinced that economic prosperity enables people to lead happier lives. We provide young researchers a nurturing place to develop their competencies and to make the most of their skills. Working in flat hierarchies, we are driven by open-minded intellectual curiosity and we have the courage to share inconvenient insights.

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Press Releases

28.09.2023 • 25/2023

The downturn in 2023 is milder in East Germany than in Germany as a whole – Implications of the Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2023 and of Länder data from recent publications of the Statistical Offices

Abstract

The German economy has been in a downturn for more than a year. In East Germany, however, the economy has been somewhat stronger in the past four quarters: According to the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), East German gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by 0.5% in 2023, while production in Germany as a whole will fall by 0.6%. Next year, expansion rates of 1.3% are forecast in both the east and the west. For 2025, East German gross domestic product is expected to grow by 1.2%, which is slightly slower than in Germany as a whole (1.5%).

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28.09.2023 • 24/2023

Joint Economic Forecast 2/2023: Purchasing power returns ‒ political uncertainty high

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

According to the Joint Economic Forecast, Germany's gross domestic product declines by 0.6% in 2023. This is a strong downward revision of 0.9 percentage points from the forecast made in spring 2023. "The most important reason for this revision is that industry and private consumption are recovering more slowly than we expected in spring," says Oliver Holtemöller, Vice President and Head of the Macroeconomics Department at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

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07.09.2023 • 23/2023

The German economy continues its downturn

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

High inflation, increased interest rates, weak foreign demand and uncertainty among private households and firms are currently weighing on the German economy. In its autumn forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 0.5% in 2023 and to increase by 0.9% in 2024.

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06.09.2023 • 22/2023

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Etwas weniger Firmenpleiten im August, im nächsten Quartal wohl deutlich mehr

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

Die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften lag im August erneut über dem Niveau vor der Corona-Pandemie, ging jedoch den zweiten Monat in Folge leicht zurück. Für das vierte Quartal sind steigende Insolvenzzahlen wahrscheinlich.

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Veranstaltung
10
Oct 2023

14:15 - 15:45

IWH Research Seminar

Bailout Addiction: Does Bailout Anticipation Induce Adverse Selection?

Anjan Thakor  Washington University in St. Louis, Olin Business School
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