IWH Summer Forecast: German economy still on the defensive – but first signs of an end to the downturn

In the first half of 2024, signs of an economic recovery are increasing. Production, however, is likely to expand only modestly during summer. From the autumn, the recovery is likely to pick up speed with higher real incomes and a modest increase in exports.

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Chinese mass imports strengthen extreme parties

Globalisation has led to an increase in votes for the political fringes in Europe. A study by the Halle Institute is the first to show the long-term consequences of increased Chinese imports in European regions: far-right and populist parties in particular have benefited from the so-called China shock in national elections.

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Applauding on a business seminar!

IWH ranks top in research monitoring

The IWH comes fourth in the institute ranking of the “Forschungsmonitoring 2023” taking into account A and A+ publications, and also on a per capita basis. This puts the IWH ahead of all other economic research institutes in the Leibniz Association. The ranking is compiled by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich. It evaluates the publication performance of economists and research institutions in German-speaking countries. 

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Risk in the financial sector: close ties between banks and supervisors

Many top managers at European banks move seamlessly to their supervisory authorities. An IWH study has revealed the extent of these personnel links for the first time. They can pave the way for lax regulation and jeopardise financial stability. Three things politicians should improve.

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Blathering managers harm their company

If a senior executive refuses to give information to professional investors, the company's stock market value drops afterwards. This is shown in an IWH study after evaluating 1.2 million answers from telephone conferences.

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New database on Europe's real estate markets

Exclusively for non-commercial scientific purposes, the IWH European Real Estate Index (EREI) provides a comprehensive overview of residential property offers for sale and rent in 18 European countries.

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Solidarity with Israel

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany stands in solidarity with Israel.

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Solidarity with Ukraine

The Alliance of Science Organisations in Germany draws consequences for academia.

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The Halle Spirit

We provide independent research on economic topics that really matter and aim to enrich society with facts and evidence-based insights that facilitate better economic decisions. We focus on growth and productivity because we are convinced that economic prosperity enables people to lead happier lives. We provide young researchers a nurturing place to develop their competencies and to make the most of their skills. Working in flat hierarchies, we are driven by open-minded intellectual curiosity and we have the courage to share inconvenient insights.

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Press Releases

19.06.2024 • 19/2024

Sachsen-Anhalts Mittelstand weiter in konjunktureller Schwächephase

Dr Axel Lindner
Abstract

Die Wirtschaft in Sachsen-Anhalt befindet sich weiterhin im Abschwung. Die Stimmungslage der mittelständischen Unternehmen hat sich im Frühjahr 2024 weiter verschlechtert. Das geht aus der gemeinsamen Umfrage von Creditreform und Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) hervor, an der sich rund 430 Unternehmen aus Sachsen-Anhalt beteiligten.

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18.06.2024 • 18/2024

IWH: Sechs-Punkte-Plan zur grünen Transformation

Professor Reint E. Gropp, PhD
Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

Die Politik sollte die richtigen Leitplanken setzen, damit Preisanreize eine effiziente und kostengünstige Energiewende ermöglichen. Das fordern Reint Gropp und Oliver Holtemöller, Präsident und Vizepräsident des Leibniz-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH), in einem heute veröffentlichten Strategiepapier zur grünen Transformation.

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13.06.2024 • 17/2024

German economy still on the defensive – but first signs of an end to the downturn

Professor Dr Oliver Holtemöller
Abstract

In the first half of 2024, signs of an economic recovery are increasing. Production, however, is likely to expand only modestly during summer. From the autumn, the recovery is likely to pick up speed with higher real incomes and a modest increase in exports. In its summer forecast, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) expects gross domestic product to expand by 0.3% in 2024 and by 1.5% in 2025 (East Germany: 0.6% and 1.4%). In March, the IWH forecast had assumed a growth of 0.2% in 2024 and of 1.5% in 2025.

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06.06.2024 • 16/2024

IWH-Insolvenztrend: Nach Höchstständen erstmals wieder Rückgang der Insolvenzzahlen im Mai

Professor Dr Steffen Müller
Abstract

Wie das Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) in einer heute veröffentlichten Studie festgestellt hat, ist die Zahl der Insolvenzen von Personen- und Kapitalgesellschaften in Deutschland im Mai erstmals seit November 2023 wieder gesunken. Ein weiterer Rückgang der Insolvenzzahlen ist bereits in Sicht, meinen die Forscher aus Halle.

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13th CompNet Annual Conference

Keynote Speakers: Gianmarco Ottaviano (Bocconi University), Jonathan Haskel (Bank of England, Imperial College Business School)
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