Was wissen wir über Betriebsschließungen? Erkenntnisse für West- und Ostdeutschland
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel
Wirtschaftsdienst,
No. 2,
2015
Abstract
This paper reports the results of several investigations into the determinants of company shutdowns using administrative data for Germany. We show that between 1975 and 2008, the average shutdown rate has risen considerably in western Germany. For most of the time, shutdown rates in eastern Germany were higher, but they have converged to the western level recently. The shutdown risk falls with company size and is substantially higher for young companies. Shutdown rates initially decline as companies age, reaching a minimum at ages 15 to 18, and then rise again. Companies begin to shrink several years before closure, and the remaining workforce becomes on average more skilled, more female and older in companies about to close compared to surviving ones.
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Langzeitleistungsbezug und Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit – Bericht zum 11. IWH/IAB-Workshop zur Arbeitsmarktpolitik –
Birgit Schultz, L. Krüger
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 5,
2014
Abstract
Im Rahmen des IWH/IAB-Workshops zur Arbeitsmarktpolitik am 1. und 2. Oktober 2014 in Halle (Saale) trafen sich zum elften Mal Vertreter aus Wissenschaft, Politik, Verwaltung und Wirtschaft, um sich aus ökonomischer und soziologischer Sicht über neue Entwicklungen und Erkenntnisse zu den Themen langfristiger Sozialleistungsbezug und Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit auszutauschen. Der Fokus der Workshops, die als Bindeglied zwischen Theorie und Praxis konzipiert sind, lag dabei auf den Ursachen und Konsequenzen der Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit sowie auf möglichen Lösungsansätzen.
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Lingering Illness or Sudden Death? Pre-exit Employment Developments in German Establishments
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel, J. Wagner
Industrial and Corporate Change,
No. 4,
2014
Abstract
Using a large administrative data set for Germany, this article compares employment developments in exiting and surviving establishments. Applying a matching approach, we find a clear “shadow of death” effect reflecting lingering illness: in both West and East Germany establishments shrink dramatically already several years before closure, employment growth rates differ strongly between exiting and surviving establishments, and this difference becomes stronger as exit approaches. Moreover, we provide first evidence that prior to exit the workforce becomes on average more skilled, more female, and older in exiting compared to surviving establishments. These effects are more clearly visible in West than in East Germany.
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Establishment Survival in East and West Germany: A Comparative Analysis
Daniel Fackler
Schmollers Jahrbuch,
No. 2,
2014
Abstract
Using a large administrative dataset, this paper compares the development of new establishments’ survival chances in East and West Germany for the period 1994 – 2008. A central question is whether convergence with respect to survival rates between East and West Germany can be observed. Using methods of survival analysis, I find that new establishments’ survival chances do not differ strongly between East and West Germany at the beginning of the observation period. In 1998 and 1999 the exit hazard increases strongly in East but not in West Germany, which is likely to be due to a change in the subsidy policy affecting East Germany. Since the turn of the millennium, the difference in establishments’ exit hazard between East and West Germany becomes smaller, indicating that there is convergence with respect to establishments’ survival chances.
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Survival of Spinoffs and Other Startups: First Evidence for the Private Sector in Germany, 1976-2008
Daniel Fackler, Claus Schnabel
Abstract
Using a 50 percent sample of all establishments in the German private sector, we report that spinoffs are larger and initially employ more skilled and more experienced workers than other startups. Controlling for these and other differences, we find that spinoffs are less likely to exit than other startups. We show that in West and East Germany and in all sectors investigated pulled spinoffs (where the parent company continues after they are founded) generally have the lowest exit hazards, followed by pushed spinoffs (where the parent company stops operations). The difference between both types of spinoffs is particularly pronounced in the first three years. Contrary to expectations, intra-industry spinoffs are not found to have lower exit hazards in our sample.
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The Determinants of Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Business Services Across European Regions
Davide Castellani
Finanza e Statistica 104/2012,
2012
Abstract
The paper accounts for the determinants of inward foreign direct investment in business services across the EU-27 regions. Together with the traditional variables considered in the literature (market size, market quality, agglomeration economies, labour cost, technology, human capital), we focus on the role of forward linkages with manufacturing sectors and other service sectors as
attractors of business services FDI at the regional level. This hypothesis is based on the evidence that the growth of business services is mostly due to increasing intermediate demand by other services industries and by manufacturing industries and on the importance of geographical proximity for forward linkages in services.
To our knowledge, there are no studies investigating the role of forward linkages for the location of FDI. This paper aims therefore to fill this gap and add to the FDI literature by providing a picture of the specificities of the determinants of FDI in business services at the regional level. The empirical analysis draws upon the database fDi Markets, from which we selected projects having as a destination NUTS 2 European regions in the sectors of Business services over the period 2003-2008. Data on FDI have been matched with data drawn from the Eurostat Regio
database. Forward linkages have been constructed using the OECD Input/Output database. By estimating a negative binomial model, we find that regions specialised in those (manufacturing) sectors that are high potential users of business services attract more FDI than other regions. This confirms the role of forward linkages for the localisation of business service FDI, particularly in the case of manufacturing.
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Emissionsrechtemanagement mit dem „CO2-Navigator“
Wilfried Ehrenfeld
IWH Discussion Papers,
No. 19,
2011
Abstract
The emission rights management module of the software package “CO2-Navigator“ is a corporate emissions rights management instrument designed to provide an overview of the allocation and transactions of CO2 emission allowances at any time of the calendar year. During the acquisition, the relevant dates, quantities and prices are collected. The daily updated inventory of allowances is also reported.
Based on the current state of the emissions from an installation, an estimate of the allowance coverage for the balance sheet day of the current year is realized, using an emission profile characteristic for the firm. Here, a possible under- or over- coverage is graphically illustrated and quantified. The module is thus a useful tool in the risk management process of emission intensive companies. A possible subsequent investment analysis, e. g. a stochastic investment planning, builds on the data supplied by this module. This paper describes the motivation and technical conception of this instrument.
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A Model for the Valuation of Carbon Price Risk
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Antes, R.; Hansjürgen, B.; Letmathe, P.; Pickl, S. (Hrsg.), Emissions Trading - Institutional Design, Decision Making and Corporate Strategies (Second Edition),
2011
Abstract
Modeling the price risk of CO2 emission allowances is an important aspect of integral corporate risk management related to emissions trading. In this paper, a pricing model is developed which may be the basis for evaluating the risk of emission certificate prices. We assume that the certificate price is determined by the expected marginal CO2 abatement costs in the current trade period as well as by the long-term marginal abatement costs. The price risk is modeled on the basis of a mean reversion process. Due to uncertainties about the future state of the environment, we suppose that within one trade period erratic changes in the expected marginal abatement costs may occur leading to shifts in the price level. In addition to the parameter estimation, it is also an objective of this work to modify the mean reversion process so that such abrupt changes in the expected reversion level can be displayed. Because of the possibility of transferring spare allowances to a subsequent period we take into account the fact that the expected long run marginal abatement costs act as a lower limit for the price in the trading period.
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Stochastic Income Statement Planning as a Basis for Risk Assessment in the Context of Emissions Trading
Henry Dannenberg, Wilfried Ehrenfeld
Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
The introduction of the European emissions trading system means that those enterprises taking part have a new planning risk factor to consider – emissions allowance prices. In this article, we analyse how risk emerging from emissions trading can be considered in the stochastic income statement planning of corporations. Therefore, we explore which planned figures are affected by emissions trading. Moreover, we show an approach that models these positions in a planned profit and loss account, taking into account uncertainties and dependencies. Consequently, this model provides a basis for risk assessment and investment decisions in the uncertain environment of emissions trading.
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What are the benefits of cooperation and networking for the economic development of cities and metropolitan regions? Conference proceeding of the third “Halle Forum on Urban Economic Growth”
Christoph Hornych, Albrecht Kauffmann, M. Mühlberg, Martin T. W. Rosenfeld
Wirtschaft im Wandel,
No. 1,
2011
Abstract
The Department of Urban Economics of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) held on 2 and 3 December 2010 the third “Halle Forum on Urban Economic Growth“. The biennial “Halle Forum” focuses on the determinants of urban growth. This year's conference addressed the forms and benefits of cooperation and networking for the economic development of cities and metropolitan regions. The presentations and discussions focused on the one hand on the effects and determinants of inter-and intra-regional cooperation between firms, and on the other hand on cooperation between neighboring municipalities, especially through the establishment of metropolitan regions.
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