Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe
Hannes Böhm, Julia Schaumburg, Lena Tonzer
IMF Economic Review,
forthcoming
Abstract
We analyze whether financial integration leads to converging or diverging business cycles using a dynamic spatial model. Our model allows for contemporaneous spillovers of shocks to GDP growth between countries that are financially integrated and delivers a scalar measure of the spillover intensity at each point in time. For a financial network of ten European countries from 1996 to 2017, we find that the spillover effects are positive on average and much larger during periods of financial stress, pointing towards stronger business cycle synchronization. Dismantling GDP growth into value added growth of ten major industries, we observe that spillover intensities vary significantly. The findings are robust to a variety of alternative model specifications.
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Social Capital and Regional Innovation: Evidence from Private Firms in the US
Iftekhar Hasan, Nada Kobeissi, Bo Wang, Haizhi Wang, Desheng Yin
Regional Studies,
forthcoming
Abstract
In this study we investigate whether and to what extent social capital may affect regional innovation by focusing on private firms in the United States. We document that regional social capital is positively associated with the quantity, quality and novelty of county-level innovation by private firms. In addition, we find that the positive relation between social capital and regional innovation is more prominent in counties with a lower supply of financial capital. We also report that social capital is complementary to investments in research and development to produce inventive outcomes in local areas. Using a spatial Durbin model, we provide evidence that regional social capital has significant spillover effects in boosting the innovation activities of neighbouring counties.
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CEO Network Centrality and the Likelihood of Financial Reporting Fraud
Salim Chahine, Yiwei Fang, Iftekhar Hasan, Mohamad Mazboudi
Abacus,
No. 4,
2021
Abstract
This paper investigates the association between CEO’s relative position in the social network and the likelihood of being involved in corporate fraud. Tracing a large sample of US publicly listed firms, we find that CEO network centrality is inversely related to the likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting. We also document a significant spillover effect of financial reporting behaviour from the dominant (most central) CEO to other CEOs in the same social network, suggesting that the ethical corporate behaviour of CEOs is, on average, influenced by that of their dominant CEO in the network. We further find that the role of CEO network centrality in reducing fraud risk is more prominent in firms with lower auditor quality. Overall, our results suggest that network centrality is an important CEO trait that promotes ethical financial reporting behaviour within social networks.
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Spillover Effects in Empirical Corporate Finance
Tobias Berg, Markus Reisinger, Daniel Streitz
Journal of Financial Economics,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
Despite their importance, the discussion of spillover effects in empirical research often misses the rigor dedicated to endogeneity concerns. We analyze a broad set of workhorse models of firm interactions and show that spillovers naturally arise in many corporate finance settings. This has important implications for the estimation of treatment effects: i) even with random treatment, spillovers lead to a complicated bias, ii) fixed effects can exacerbate the spillover-induced bias. We propose simple diagnostic tools for empirical researchers and illustrate our guidance in an application.
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O Brother, Where Start Thou? Sibling Spillovers on College and Major Choice in Four Countries
Adam Altmejd, Andrés Barrios-Fernández, Marin Drlje, Joshua Goodman, Michael Hurwitz, Dejan Kovač, Christine Mulhern, Christopher Neilson, Jonathan Smith
Quarterly Journal of Economics,
No. 3,
2021
Abstract
Family and social networks are widely believed to influence important life decisions, but causal identification of those effects is notoriously challenging. Using data from Chile, Croatia, Sweden, and the United States, we study within-family spillovers in college and major choice across a variety of national contexts. Exploiting college-specific admissions thresholds that directly affect older but not younger siblings’ college options, we show that in all four countries a meaningful portion of younger siblings follow their older sibling to the same college or college-major combination. Older siblings are followed regardless of whether their target and counterfactual options have large, small, or even negative differences in quality. Spillover effects disappear, however, if the older sibling drops out of college, suggesting that older siblings’ college experiences matter. That siblings influence important human capital investment decisions across such varied contexts suggests that our findings are not an artifact of particular institutional detail but a more generalizable description of human behavior. Causal links between the postsecondary paths of close peers may partly explain persistent college enrollment inequalities between social groups, and this suggests that interventions to improve college access may have multiplier effects.
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The Viral Effects of Foreign Trade and Supply Networks in the Euro Area
Virginia di Nino, Bruno Veltri
IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers,
No. 4,
2020
Abstract
Containment measures of COVID-19 have generated a chain of supply and demand shocks around the globe with heterogeneous fallout across industries and countries. We quantify their transmission via foreign trade with a focus on the euro area where deep firms integration within regional supply chains and strong demand linkages act as a magnification mechanism. We estimate that spillover effects in the euro area from suppression measures in one of the five main euro area countries range between 15-28% the size of the original shock; negative foreign demand shocks depress euro area aggregate activity by about a fifth the size of the external shock and a fourth of the total effect is due to indirect propagation through euro area supply chain. Last, reopening to regional tourism softened the contraction of aggregate activity due to travel and tourism bans by about a third in the euro area. Our findings suggest that enhanced coordination of recovery plans would magnify their beneficial effects.
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